If the March Madness odds are any indication, bettors should buckle up for a fun run in the West Region on the March Madness bracket Sunday.
The No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide take on the No. 12 Grand Canyon Antelopes in the Round of 32, and oddsmakers have this contest pegged with a tall total and the promise of plenty of points.
The Crimson Tide blew past Charleston and an Over/Under of 172.5 points (the tallest recorded total in NCAA Tournament history) in the Round of 64, winning a 109-96 shootout Friday.
The Antelopes faced a much different opponent in their tourney opener, forcing defensive-minded Saint Mary’s to play beyond its pace in a classic No. 12 over No. 5 upset as 5.5-point underdogs.
I take a look at the spread and this towering total and give my best college basketball picks for Grand Canyon vs. Alabama on March 24.
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Grand Canyon vs Alabama best odds
Grand Canyon vs Alabama picks and predictions
The Antelopes are adaptable. Heading into Friday’s game with Saint Mary’s, Grand Canyon knew it had to try to turn up the tempo on a methodical Gaels game plan and put one of the better defenses in the country on its heels.
They did just that, pushing pace with transition and getting to the paint for high-percentage looks. The Lopes scored 47 points in the second half and were getting everything they wanted on offense in those final 20 minutes. It’s rare you see a lower seed impose its will on the better team, but here we are.
Grand Canyon gets a 180 in opposition when it comes to the Crimson Tide. Alabama is all about that pace, ranked Top 10 in both tempo rating and offensive efficiency. The Tide either attack the rim or shoot from the outside and try to overwhelm their opposition on offense rather than get the job done on defense.
The Antelopes proved their defensive stock in the win over Saint Mary’s, especially when it comes to protecting the rim. Grand Canyon limited SMU to less than 39% success from the floor and recorded nine total blocks while changing numerous others.
This Grand Canyon defense sits just outside the Top 40 in defensive efficiency at KenPom (that telltale stat for Final Four contenders) and limits opponents to the ninth-lowest 2-point shooting percentage in the country.
On offense, GCU employs a similar approach as Alabama as it looks to attack the interior and score at the rim. The Antelopes are more than comfortable at a higher gear and rank among the top transition offenses in the land, sitting 23rd in points per play in transition at ShotQualityBets.
And while GCU isn’t as effective in the halfcourt, it does have an X-factor in 6-foot-7 senior guard Tyon Grant-Foster, who is the best player on the floor. That’s saying something considering the talent on the Tide.
Alabama’s defense isn’t great... and that’s a nice way to say it. The Tide rank 117th in defensive efficiency, allowing 81.5 points per game. The 96 points allowed to Charleston is a bit misleading as Nate Oates sat his starters in the second half, but the Cougars are almost as bad as Alabama on defense and play a similar tempo.
The versatility of GCU will keep this one close. Grand Canyon’s offense, which sits 68th in possession time, can exploit a soft Tide defense in transition or isolate Grant-Foster in the halfcourt. On defense, where the Antelopes make their opponents work for looks and change interior shots, Grand Canyon has to get its heels above the 3-point arc and protect against the Tide’s triples.
Game models for this Round of 32 pairing forecast an Alabama victory, but the margin of victory ranges from three points to seven points. Some sharper sportsbooks are dealing GCU +5.5 on Saturday morning but the +6.5 is available at a number of mainstream operators.
My best bet: Grand Canyon +6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Grand Canyon vs Alabama same-game parlay
Grand Canyon +6.5
Tyon Grant-Foster Over 20.5 points
Ray Harrison Over 4.5 assists
The Lopes can adapt and have the better defense. If they can keep Bama in check from outside, they could not only cover but threaten to win.
Grant-Foster is forecasted for more than 24 points and will be a matchup nightmare for a bad Alabama defense.
Harrison dished out six assists in more controlled tempo against a good SMU defense. There will be more shots and better scoring chance, leading to more assists versus Alabama.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Grand Canyon vs Alabama spread and Over/Under analysis
Following Grand Canyon’s impressive victory over Saint Mary’s in the late game Friday, oddsmakers put the coffee on and installed Alabama as a favorite — but that spread ranged from -5.5 to -6.5.
The Tide scored at will in their Round of 64 matchup with Charleston, which drew that massive Over/Under number. Alabama held a 51-34 lead at halftime and built that lead to 31 points. Coach Nate Oates was able to rest his starters in the second half, which allowed the Cougars to claw back a bit and make this 109-96 final a little closer than it actually was.
The Lopes played fantastic two-way basketball against Saint Mary’s in Friday’s late game in Spokane. Grand Canyon took one of the best defensive and methodical teams in the land and put them on their heels with an aggressive attack while protecting the rim with nine total blocks.
The total for Sunday’s showdown opened at 168.5 points and is up to 169.5 at some sportsbooks as of Saturday morning. Should it close higher than this current number, it would be the second tallest total in recorded NCAA history behind the Alabama-Charleston game.
The Tide are one of the best Over bets in college basketball, boasting a 25-8 Over/Under mark on the season due to their up-tempo style and propensity to shoot the 3-ball. Alabama has gone Over in four straight games and has stayed below the total only once in its last dozen games going back to February 3.
The Antelopes own an 18-15 O/U mark on the season and play an adaptable style that does lean into tempo a little more. Grand Canyon has gone Over in all three of its postseason games, going back to the WAC tournament, and is 9-4 O/U in its last 13 contests overall.
Grand Canyon vs Alabama betting trend to know
Going back to 2020, Grand Canyon is 19-7 ATS as an underdog. Find more college basketball betting trends for Grand Canyon vs. Alabama.
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Grand Canyon vs Alabama game info
| Location: | Spokane Arena, Spokane, WA |
| Date: | Sunday, March 24, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Grand Canyon vs Alabama key injuries
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