Final Four odds are in play Saturday, with only a few days remaining in what has been one of the wackiest seasons of college basketball in recent memory.
As bettors pounce on the last chance to make March Madness picks, we're rounding up the need-to know info for the showdowns in Houston.
Here's a brief primer of notes and last-minute details before you bet on tonight's games between Florida Atlantic and San Diego State and UConn and Miami.
You can also check out the latest March Madness odds and get a full summary of our college basketball picks!
Final Four odds
(9) Florida Atlantic (East) vs (5) San Diego State (South)
San Diego State opened as a 1.5-point fave, which has ticked up to -2.5. The Over/Under has stayed steady at 131.5. While it's rare to see two mid-major programs face off in the Final Four for a trip to the National Title game, both SDSU and Florida Atlantic have faced some stiff competition this season.
The Mountain West was rated as the fourth-toughest conference in the country per RPI, ahead of bigger leagues such as the ACC, Big East, and Pac-12. Conference USA was also rated just ahead of the Pac-12 in RPI, and the two teams just below the Owls in the conference standings (UAB and North Texas) just faced off in the NIT Finals.
Much has been said about the transition to the Wilson Evo NXT balls that have been used since last year's tournament. Many players and coaches have suggested that the balls are over-inflated and have too much bounce, resulting in ball-handling errors, unpredictable bounces for rebounds, and most obviously shots clanking off the rim.
San Diego State's leading scorer, Matt Bradley, has been one of those critics of the new ball. Bradley came into the Sweet 16 averaging 13.0 ppg on 41.1% shooting but has averaged just 4.0 ppg on 3-17 shooting in the last two rounds.
(5) Miami (Midwest) vs (4) UConn (West)
The Huskies are now the odds-on favorites to win the national title and have looked dominant during the tourney winning every game by at least 15 points. UConn opened as a 5.5-point fave over Miami, and that spread has remained unchanged. The total opened at 149.5 and is still at that number for most books although some are dealing 149 or 150.
Final Four MOP odds favorite Adama Sanogo is Muslim, and since it's Ramadan, is unable to eat food or consume liquids until sunset. That said, Ramadan began last week and we saw no dropoff in his play, while many athletes practicing Islam have fasted during this time with little impact. By the time the game tips off at 8:49 ET, the sun will already be down so he'll be able to drink water during the game.
The Hurricanes were underdogs for each of their last three victories, and have gone 7-0 ATS when listed as an underdog of 3 or more points. They have one of the most efficient offensives in the country, but have struggled on defense. It's tough to see a team outside the Top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency in the national final, and the Canes are outside the Top 100.
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Final Four latest news
The NCAA released the pool of 11 officials that will be taking part in the Final Four.
NCAA Final Four Officials: Jeff Anderson, Roger Ayers, Ron Groover, John Higgins, Keith Kimble, Kipp Kissinger, Terry Oglesby, Mike Reed, Doug Sirmons, Bert Smith, Paul Szelc.
— Dick Weiss (@HoopsWeiss) March 28, 2023
Out of that list, Jeff Anderson (35.69 fouls per game) and Ron Groover (34.73 fouls per game) stand out for calling the most fouls, while Roger Ayers (31.6) and Kipp Kissinger (31.99) call the fewest.
Physical, defensive teams such as UConn and SDSU will benefit from refs that keep their whistles in the pocket, while Miami and FAU would be better served with officials more willing to blow the whistle.
NRG Stadium might be different than all other domes. KenPom reports that in “15 college games played at NRG Stadium since 2002, those 30 participating teams shot 32.3% from three-point range. A team shooting that percentage this season would rank 260th in Division I.” pic.twitter.com/QC1mWFCdNk
— Jersey Leans (@JerseyLeans) March 31, 2023
With the Final Four taking place at massive NRG Stadium, home of the NFL's Houston Texas, the depth perception could make it tough for perimeter shooters.
FAU and UConn have been significantly more reliant on outside shooting than their counterparts on Saturday. The Owls rank 35th in the country in 3-point rate with 44% of their shots coming from beyond the arc and the Huskies aren't far behind at 41.8%.
The Hurricanes are 275th in 3-point rate (34.3%), while the Aztecs are 283rd (33.8%) with both teams very comfortable with their midrange games. Interestingly, none of these teams attack the basket that often. The Canes and Owls are just outside the Top 100 in frequency of attacking the rim per ShotQualityBets. The Huskies are 258th in that category while the Aztecs are just 328th.
The Hurricanes might also have an easier time getting to the line more often since the Huskies are 319th in opponent free throw rate while the Canes are 19th.
Do You Know:
— TheCaneReport (@CaneReport) April 1, 2023
Miami head coach Jim Larranaga has been to the Final Four four times. He led George Mason in 2006, He was an assistant coach on the 1981 and 1984 Virginia Final Four teams. pic.twitter.com/zYbCWc54gT
Miami's Jim Larranaga is the most experienced head coach left and has a career record of 725-482 along with 11 March Madness appearances — more than the other three coaches combined. He also led George Mason to a shocking Final Four appearance in 2006 and took the Canes to the Elite Eight last season.
San Diego State's Brian Dutcher has been a head coach for just six years but he served under Steve Fisher as an assistant for 27 years at both SDSU and Michigan, where he helped the Wolverines to a national title in 1989.
Final Four injuries
The only notable injury news is that UConn's Jordan Hawkins missed practice yesterday with a non-COVID illness. The All-Big East shooting guard averages 16.3 ppg on 41/39/89 shooting splits and dropped 24 points against Arkansas in the Sweet 16 before torching Gonzaga for 20 in the Elite Eight.
If Hawkins is unable to suit up, Nahiem Alleyne (5.1 points in 17.8 minutes per game) will likely slot into the starting lineup. Alleyne was a three-year starter at Virginia Tech before transferring to UConn and has been part of one of the best benches in college hoops, but he can't shoot like Hawkins.
Final Four betting splits
The majority of bettors at BetMGM are expecting FAU's Cinderella run to end tonight with 60% of the tickets and 75% of the handle on San Diego State.
At BetMGM the handle in the Miami/UConn game has been split (51% to 49% in favor of UConn) but the Huskies have gotten 63% of all tickets. At PointsBet, the Huskies have 54% of tickets but a commanding share of the handle at 66%.
When it comes to the totals, most of the money is on the Over between Miami and UConn. At BetMGM a whopping 79% of the handle is on the Over 149.5 while at PointsBet, 72% of the total bets are on the Over.
The Under between SDSU and FAU has seen 64% of the handle at PointsBet, but has been more split over at BetMGM, where it received 54% of the handle but just 48% of all bets.
The Covers Consensus is leaning towards SDSU to cover at 55%. It's also expecting a lower-scoring contest with 57% of our users leaning towards the Under 131.5.
Here, our Covers Consensus is also leaning towards the faves in the second matchup with 54% of users taking Miami at -5.5. There's an even greater consensus on the total with 63% expecting the Over to cash.
