The last No. 1 NBA draft pick to reach the NCAA Championship game was Anthony Davis with Kentucky in 2014. Pondering that, a lesson becomes clear: March Madness is more about already-realized talent, while the NBA draft is about potential talent.
Duke star Cameron Boozer may fall short in the eyes of some NBA front offices, but he will do no such thing in my March Madness bracket. He is the best player in the country and should lead the Blue Devils to their sixth national championship.
That may seem obvious, but the twist is that I expect Duke to be the only No. 1 seed to make the Final Four in Indianapolis in April.
Douglas Farmer's March Madness Bracket for 2026
My best March Madness bracket picks
Before the bracket was even released, I had Duke circled in the middle of the sheet. Matchups determine the rest.
No. 2-seed UConn should worry the Blue Devils, but the fact of the matter is this version of UConn is nowhere near as powerful as its two recent title teams. The Huskies have nothing to worry about; the program is on excellent ground. But the Blue Devils are about to prove they are far and away the best team in the country.
Houston topping Florida to win the South Region comes thanks to the best player in the game being a Cougar in this rematch from last year’s national championship. With no Walter Clayton Jr., the Gators sometimes struggle for that must-have bucket. Houston can simply turn to star freshman Kingston Flemings.
The truly bold choices in this bracket come in the early defeats of Michigan and Arizona. Both thoughts stem from the math problem of not hitting enough 3-pointers. The Wolverines have no true shooter; their offense does not need one. If Jeremiah Wilkinson or Kanon Catchings finds a groove for Georgia, Michigan may struggle to keep up. Similarly, the Wildcats effectively forgo the 3-pointer, while Wisconsin lives beyond the arc.
Those upsets open the doors for title-caliber No. 2 seeds to reach the Final Four in Iowa State and Purdue.
- Round 1 Upsets: 5
- Sweet 16 Cinderallas: 1
No. 11 Texas - Final Four:
No. 1 Duke vs No. 2 Houston
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 2 Iowa State - National Championship
No. 1 Duke over No. 2 Iowa State
East Region picks
The quartet of coaches in this Sweet Sixteen round may be the greatest set of coaches in a regional in history, and that is with Jon Scheyer still a relative newcomer, joining Rick Pitino, Tom Izzo, and Dan Hurley.
| Round | Pick |
|---|---|
| Round of 64 | Duke over Siena |
| Round of 64 | Ohio St over TCU |
| Round of 64 | St. John's over Northern Iowa |
| Round of 64 | Kansas over Cal Baptist |
| Round of 64 | South Florida over Louisville |
| Round of 64 | Michigan St over North Dakota St |
| Round of 64 | UCLA over UCF |
| Round of 64 | UConn over Furman |
| Round of 32 | Duke over Ohio St |
| Round of 32 | St. John's over Kansas |
| Round of 32 | Michigan St over South Florida |
| Round of 32 | UConn over UCLA |
| Sweet 16 | Duke over St. John's |
| Sweet 16 | UConn over Michigan St |
| Elite Eight | Duke over UConn |
Midwest Region picks
Doubt swirls around Alabama right now. Junior guard Aden Holloway has been suspended following an arrest for possession of a not insignificant amount of marijuana. Well, if yours truly is going to do one thing in this life, it is buy on bad news.
| Round | Pick |
|---|---|
| Round of 64 | Michigan over UMBC/Howard |
| Round of 64 | Georgia over Saint Louis |
| Round of 64 | Akron over Texas Tech |
| Round of 64 | Alabama over Hofstra |
| Round of 64 | Tennessee over Miami (OH)/SMU |
| Round of 64 | Virginia over Wright St |
| Round of 64 | Kentucky over Santa Clara |
| Round of 64 | Iowa St over Tennessee St |
| Round of 32 | Georgia over Michigan |
| Round of 32 | Alabama over Akron |
| Round of 32 | Virginia over Tennessee |
| Round of 32 | Iowa St over Kentucky |
| Sweet 16 | Alabama over Georgia |
| Sweet 16 | Iowa St over Virginia |
| Elite Eight | Iowa St over Alabama |
South Region picks
Houston’s revenge is sweet, though ultimately unsatisfactory. The Cougars should bring an unparalleled level of focus when facing Florida after blowing the national championship in the closing minutes last year.
| Round | Pick |
|---|---|
| Round of 64 | Florida over PV A&M/Lehigh |
| Round of 64 | Iowa over Clemson |
| Round of 64 | Vanderbilt over McNeese |
| Round of 64 | Nebraska over Troy |
| Round of 64 | VCU over North Carolina |
| Round of 64 | Illinois over Penn |
| Round of 64 | Saint Mary's over Texas A&M |
| Round of 64 | Houston over Idaho |
| Round of 32 | Florida over Iowa |
| Round of 32 | Nebraska over Vanderbilt |
| Round of 32 | Illinois over VCU |
| Round of 32 | Houston over Saint Mary's |
| Sweet 16 | Florida over Nebraska |
| Sweet 16 | Houston over Illinois |
| Elite Eight | Houston over Florida |
West Region picks
Wisconsin and Purdue split their regular-season series, each winning on the road. If we are so blessed as to see a third matchup, it may feature the best guard play of the entire tournament.
| Round | Pick |
|---|---|
| Round of 64 | Arizona over LIU |
| Round of 64 | Villanova over Utah St |
| Round of 64 | Wisconsin over High Point |
| Round of 64 | Arkansas over Hawaii |
| Round of 64 | Texas over BYU |
| Round of 64 | Kennesaw St over Gonzaga |
| Round of 64 | Miami (FL) over Missouri |
| Round of 64 | Purdue over Queens |
| Round of 32 | Arizona over Villanova |
| Round of 32 | Wisconsin over Arkansas |
| Round of 32 | Texas over Kennesaw St |
| Round of 32 | Purdue over Miami (FL) |
| Sweet 16 | Wisconsin over Arizona |
| Sweet 16 | Purdue over Texas |
| Elite Eight | Purdue over Wisconsin |
Final Four and National Championship predictions
| Round | Pick |
|---|---|
| Final Four | Duke over Houston |
| Final Four | Iowa State over Purdue |
| National Championship | Duke over Iowa State |
