Colgate vs Baylor Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Raiders Come Out Roaring in March Madness Opener

Today's slate in the West Region of the March Madness bracket tips off with a true clash in styles, as the No. 3 Baylor Bears battle the No. 14 Colgate Raiders in Memphis.

Baylor head coach Scott Drew knows what it takes to get the job done in March, having led the program to a national title in 2021. This year’s version of the Bears can fill it up... but it’s the other end of the floor that doesn’t go so smoothly for BU. 

Colgate comes into the Big Dance as the Patriot League champions,  running the table as the top team in the regular season and, unlike Baylor, specializes in defense.

Join me as I dive into the March Madness odds for this matchup and give my best March Madness picks for Baylor vs. Colgate today.

Colgate vs Baylor best odds

Colgate vs Baylor picks and predictions

The Colgate Raiders come in as a hefty underdog against a mighty Big 12 foe, but I see the Raiders putting a scare in the Baylor Bears — at least for the first 20 minutes.

Baylor is an offensive juggernaut, scoring more than 80 points an outing, yet the way Scott Drew’s team goes about its business matches up poorly against Colgate’s defensive strengths. The Bears rely heavily on taking and making 3-pointers, knocking down an average of 8.6 shots from distance. Colgate gets its heels above the 3-point arc and held opponents to less than 30% success from outside (11th lowest in the country).

Baylor attacks the interior and draws whistles, getting to the foul line for 23 FTAs per game — cashing in 17 in those freebies and generating more than 21% of its offense from the stripe. Conversely, the Raiders only get called for 13.5 personal fouls a contest (seventh fewest) and send foes to the free-throw line an average of only 14.2 times. 

Offensive rebounding is a big part of BU’s attack, cleaning up misses for second-chance points and easy bunnies. Baylor is 27th in offensive rebound rate, snatching 9.4 offensive boards per outing. And wouldn’t you know it: Colgate is great at cleaning the glass, sitting 22nd in defensive rebound percentage.

Now, there’s a massive gap in overall talent and coaching between these two, and that will show over 40 minutes. But as far as first halves go, Baylor has been slow out of the blocks — at least by its standards. The Bears own a first-half margin of just +2.8 on the season, which is a stark contrast to their second-half gap of +6.3 in the final 20 minutes. 

Baylor has actually trailed at the halftime break in six of its last eight games (and those two leads were by only one point), getting outscored by an average tally of 37-30 in the first half in that span. In fact, BU has covered the first-half spread only four times in its last 14 games. 

The Raiders, who have led at halftime in 14 of their previous 15 contests, give up only 30.5 points in the opening 20 minutes and present a tougher-than-expected matchup for BU’s offense.

Drew & Co. will adjust in the second half, talent will take over, and Baylor could very well cover the full game spread of -14 when it’s all said and done. But with books giving Colgate +8 in the opening stanza, I’m running with the Raiders to make those advancing BU in the bracket a little nervous on Friday afternoon.

My best bet: Colgate first half +8 (-105 at DraftKings)

Colgate vs Baylor same-game parlay

Colgate first half +8

Baylor moneyline

RayJ Dennis Over 6.5 assists

+290 at DraftKings

Baylor’s bumpy starts and Colgate smothering defense will keep the Raiders inside this first-half spread.

The Bears will eventually figure out Colgate and break away for the win in the second half.

Dennis is projected for seven-plus dimes and Colgate allows a high assist-to-FGM rate.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Colgate vs Baylor spread and Over/Under analysis

Following the Selection Show, oddsmakers opened Baylor as a 12.5-point favorite for this Round of 64 game. As more books opened their NCAA odds, BU climbed to -13 and -13.5 in the first hour of action. 

This spread is as high as Baylor -14 at some books on Wednesday morning. According to Covers Consensus, 63% of college basketball picks are laying the points with the Bears as double-digit chalk. On the season, BU is 6-1-1 ATS when giving 10 or more points.

The Bears were among the top teams in a stacked Big 12 conference and rarely looked out of their depth, with three of their seven Big 12 losses coming in overtime and two other regulation defeats coming by three points or less. 

Offense is the name of the game in Waco, with Baylor boasting the sixth-ranked attack in offensive efficiency at KenPom. The Bears average more than 80 points per game, fueling a 19-11-2 ATS record on the season. Colgate topped the Patriot League is most defensive metrics and is among the stingiest teams in the land, giving up only 64 points an outing. The Raiders have only two losses in their past 18 games, going 10-7-1 ATS in that span.

Friday’s Over/Under total hit the board at 137.5 points and has since been bet up to as high as 138.5. As of Wednesday morning, Covers Consensus reports 55% of picks on the Over.

Baylor’s high-powered offense and bad defense led to some lofty totals, which has tempered BU’s Over/Under results to the tune of 17-15 O/U. The Bears are 5-2 O/U on neutral courts this season, taking on the likes of Florida, Duke, Michigan State, and Auburn.

As for Colgate, it enters the NCAA Tournament as one of the best Under bets, owning a 12-21 O/U record. The Raiders finished Patriot League play on a four-game Under run before going 2-1 O/U in the conference tournament.

Colgate vs Baylor betting trend to know

Baylor has covered the first-half spread only four times in its last 14 games (-7.55 units). Find more college basketball betting trends for Colgate vs. Baylor.

Play at Pinnacle: Offering 25 + years of betting experience

Make your March Madness wagers at Pinnacle, which offers Canadians unbeatable value with the most competitive odds in the industry and high limits — come find out why Pinnacle is home to better odds and better payouts!

Sign Up Now 

Colgate vs Baylor game info

Colgate vs Baylor key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic