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I pick the winners against the spread with my March Madness picks for every Round of 32 game on Sunday, March 22.
March Madness against the spread picks on Sunday, March 22
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Miami vs  Purdue |
+7.5 |
 Kentuckyvs  Iowa State |
-5 |
 St. John'svs  Kansas |
-3.5 |
 Tennesseevs  Virginia |
-1 |
 Iowavs  Florida |
+10.5 |
 Utah Statevs  Arizona |
-12.5 |
 UCLAvs  UConn |
+4 |
 Texas Techvs  Alabama |
-1 |
Lines courtesy of bet365.
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Expert March Madness Round 2 ATS picks for Sunday
No. 7 Miami vs No. 2 Purdue: Miami +7.5
For all the talk about the Purdue Boilermakers’ offense, it’s easy to lose track of how lackluster the defense has been for much of the year.
Matt Painter’s squad is just 115th in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last month (BartTorvik), making it difficult to find margin against tougher competition.
The Miami Hurricanes are an undervalued commodity (8-3 ATS in their last 11), and they’ll find success at the rim against Purdue’s 277th-ranked 2-point defense (53.3%).
No. 7 Kentucky vs No. 2 Iowa State: Iowa State -5
Joshua Jefferson’s ankle injury is a major concern, but the Iowa State Cyclones have the depth to compensate. That was evident when they set the program record for the largest margin of victory in an NCAA Tournament game, despite losing their top player in the opening moments.
The Cyclones are 12-6 ATS in games outside Ames, while the Kentucky Wildcats rank 356th in Away From Home grade and 362nd in Paper Tiger Factor (Haslametrics).
No. 5 St. John's vs No. 4 Kansas: St. John's -3.5
The St. John’s Red Storm are one of the hottest teams in the country, winning 20 of their last 21 contests.
Their suffocating defense (first in adjusted efficiency over the last month) should stymie a bogged-down Kansas Jayhawks offense (127th in efficiency during that span).
No. 6 Tennessee vs No. 3 Virginia: Virginia -1
It wasn’t always pretty for the Virginia Cavaliers in their First Round win over Wright State, but there’s a lot to like about this matchup.
The Tennessee Volunteers thrive when they can outrebound opponents and attack the rim, but the Cavaliers are a top-15 rebounding team and elite at protecting the paint — ranking first in blocks per game and fifth in 2-point defense since February 20.
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No. 9 Iowa vs No. 1 Florida: Iowa +10.5
Ben McCollum will win a lot of tournament games due to his team’s unique style that is difficult to prepare for, especially on short notice. I'm betting that he’s still an underappreciated asset in the market due to a lack of sample size.
The Hawkeyes will slow things down (361st in adjusted tempo), limiting possession and opportunities for the Florida Gators to find margin. McCollum’s teams are a perfect 4-0 ATS when catching nine or more points at the Division 1 level.
No. 9 Utah State vs No. 1 Arizona: Arizona -12.5
The Arizona Wildcats are gearing up for a deep NCAA Tournament run after falling short in previous seasons, so they won’t let up for a second. Tommy Lloyd’s squad performs well outside of Tucson (12-6 ATS) and boasts the most pro-level talent of any team in the tournament.
That talent advantage should overwhelm a small, finesse-oriented Utah State Aggies team, which has yet to face a KenPom Top-30 opponent all season.
No. 7 UCLA vs No. 2 UConn: UCLA +4
Both teams were shorthanded in the First Round, so consider that a wash. The UCLA Bruins rank eighth in BartTorvik over the last month and have an elite point guard, Donovan Dent. That’ll play in March.
Meanwhile, the UConn Huskies haven’t been as potent as in previous years, which shows in their 13-22 ATS record and recent performances: a blowout loss to St. John’s and an unremarkable First Round win over Furman.
No. 5 Texas Tech vs No. 4 Alabama: Texas Tech -1
In another matchup where both teams have been shorthanded, I’m siding against the Alabama Crimson Tide, who rank 19th-worst in Opponent Adjusted metrics (EvanMiya). This indicates the Tide often fall short against tough competition, which is further reflected in their Paper Tiger Factor (345th).
In a game that could come down to 3-point shooting — Alabama is second in made threes, while the Texas Tech Red Raiders rank fifth — the Red Raiders’ perimeter defense (31.3% allowed on the year) could give them the edge over the Tide, who are hitting 39.1% of their deep shots since February 20.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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