The Phoenix Mercury are -5.5 favorites when they host the Portland Fire in a Sunday night matchup at the Mortgage Matchup Center.
The Mercury have had four days off, and my Fire vs. Mercury predictions and WNBA picks expect the Mercury to roll all over the Fire tonight.
Fire vs Mercury prediction
Fire vs Mercury best bet: Mercury -5.5 (-105)
The Phoenix Mercury should bury the Portland Fire tonight, and the Mercury getting -5.5 points at home feels like a gift.
The Mercury lead the league in fouls drawn (23.0 PFD) while generating 19.7 points per game on 25.8 free throw attempts.
Conversely, the Fire commit 20.7 personal fouls per contest, which should make veteran scorers like Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper and DeWanna Bonner smile.
Fresh off four days of practice to rest and tighten their half-court schemes, I’m expecting a massive offensive night for the Mercury.
Play the Mercury to -6.5.
COVERS INTEL: Across their last five games, the Phoenix Mercury boast the second-best assist percentage at 74.6%. 
Fire vs Mercury same-game parlay
We’ll exchange the Mercury spread for a moneyline play for the same reasons detailed above.
Alyssa Thomas lives at the charity stripe, and I’m expecting Thomas's free throws to aid in scoring at least 17 points in five of her previous eight contests.
I also expect Phoenix to lean on DeWanna Bonner’s perimeter shooting. She’s made at least two triples in four of her previous six games and meets a Fire defense that surrenders 11.0 made threes per game in their previous five.
Fire vs Mercury SGP
- Mercury moneyline
- Alyssa Thomas Over 15.5 points
- DeWanna Bonner Over 1.5 made threes
Want more basketball parlays? Check out our WNBA parlay picks page!
- Best bet: 14-10, +1.13 units
- SGP: 6-19, +3.10 units
- Player prop: 4-8, -4.50 units
Fire vs Mercury odds
- Spread: Fire +5.5 (-108) | Mercury -5.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: Fire +180 | Mercury -218
- Over/Under: Over 176.5 | Under 176.5
Fire vs Mercury trend
Mercury are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Western Conference. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Fire vs Mercury
| Location | Arena, City, State |
| Date | Sunday, August 16, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Fire vs Mercury latest injuries
Fire: Sania Feagin (Out).
Mercury: Kelsey Plum (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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