The Philadelphia Phillies won the first two games of the series 16-2 in aggregate, and they're only -115 favorites to complete the sweep over the Minnesota Twins.
My Phillies vs. Twins predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, Aug. 16 expect Philadelphia to take advantage of an ice-cold Minnesota offense.
Who will win Phillies vs Twins today: Phillies moneyline (-115)
Dean Kremer has only allowed two runs through 12 innings with the Minnesota Twins, but I wouldn’t read too much into it. He faced the Royals and a severely watered-down Orioles team that sold at the deadline.
The Philadelphia Phillies are a much different beast, slotting Top-7 in OPS and wOBA vs. righties in August.
Andrew Painter has tightened the screws over his last few starts, and his improved play should continue against a Minnesota Twins team sitting 27th in wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last month.
Back Philadelphia up to -125.
COVERS INTEL: Kremer ranks in the 29th percentile in Pitcher Run Value, and shouldn't pose too much resistance for a Phillies offense that's heating up.
Phillies vs Twins Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-120)
The Twins have hit only .230 with a .130 ISO and 5.1% barrel rate against righties the last 30 games. They’re not getting on base, nor hitting for much power.
Painter’s 73rd percentile ranking in hard-hit rate should allow him to suppress quality contact well enough.
While the Phillies have upped their production of late, they sit 27th in FB% vs. righties this month. Couple that with Kremer’s 78th percentile hard-hit rate, and we may not see much raw power, which should keep the total down.
Bet the Under to -135.
Phillies vs Twins home run prediction: Kyle Schwarber (+255)
Kremer has gotten crushed by lefties this season, allowing a .272 ISO and 2.25 HR/9.
Kyle Schwarber is one of the best power threats in the sport, making him a natural candidate to take advantage.
The pitch mix works in his favor as well. Kremer heavily relies on the fastball-splitter combination against left-handed bats.
Schwarber has posted ISOs of .229 and .583, albeit over a small sample with the splitter, against those two pitches thrown by righties.
I see a sizable edge here, and would recommend Schwarber down to +220.
- ML/RL bets: 79-73, -10.55 units
- Over/Under bets: 82-65-6, +8.44 units
Phillies vs Twins weather
Temperatures are expected to land in the mid 70s with winds blowing east. No real impact on the game.
Phillies vs Twins odds
- Moneyline: Phillies -115 | Twins -105
- Run line: Phillies -1.5 (+145) | Twins +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+100) | Under 9.5 (-120)
Phillies vs Twins trend
Philadelphia has won 30 of the last 50 away games (+6.10 units, 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Twins.
How to watch Phillies vs Twins and game info
| Location | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Sunday, August 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSP, Twins.TV |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Andrew Painter (2-8, 6.27 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher | Dean Kremer (2-4, 5.25 ERA) |
Phillies vs Twins latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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