March Madness Picks Against the Spread for Saturday, March 28

JD Yonke - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
JD Yonke • Betting Analyst 7+ years betting experience
Updated: Mar 27, 2026 , 10:07 AM ET • 4 min read

JD Yonke explains why Arizona will put away Purdue in the Elite Eight on Saturday night. Plus, a pick for Iowa vs. Illinois.

Arizona Wildcats Koa Peat NCAAM
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Arizona Wildcats forward Koa Peat.

The Elite Eight gets underway on Saturday with two games. The No. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes will take on the No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini prior to the No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers battling the No. 1 Arizona Wildcats. 

Looking to place an ATS bet on these big-time college hoops games? I provide my March Madness picks against the spread for both games on Saturday, March 28.

March Madness picks against the spread for Saturday, March 28

Matchup Pick
Iowa Iowa
vs
Illinois Illinois
Iowa
+6.5
Purdue Purdue
vs
Arizona Arizona
Arizona
-6.5

Lines courtesy of bet365.

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Expert March Madness Elite Eight ATS picks for Saturday

No. 9 Iowa vs No. 3 Illinois: Iowa Iowa +6.5 (-110)

Ben McCollum’s unique style has been an instant fit with the Iowa Hawkeyes, and it makes them an undervalued asset in the betting market come tournament time.

The Hawkeyes have the more impressive Big Dance resume thus far (comfortable Clemson win, impressive wins over Florida and Nebraska), and 6.5 points is a lot in a game where they’ll slow things down and limit possessions. 

The Illinois Fighting Illini have generally played in two types of games — blowout wins, and air-tight games that go down to the wire (four overtime games in their last nine heading into the Big Dance). It’s difficult to envision the former given Iowa’s at its peak and both squads are familiar, so the latter is therefore more likely. 


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No. 2 Purdue vs No. 1 Arizona: Arizona Arizona -6.5 (-110)

I plan on riding the Arizona Wildcats against the spread all tournament. They’re the best team in the country in my eyes, and it’s more about whether or not they play their “A” game than it is their opponent. 

Tommy Lloyd’s squad certainly brought the heat in the Sweet 16, demolishing a red-hot Arkansas side 109-88. I expect that momentum to continue against the Purdue Boilermakers, a similar matchup to the Hogs in that they have an elite offense led by a top-notch point guard but struggle on defense — especially against twos (279th nationally at 53.3%).

That’s a no-go against a big, physical, downhill Arizona team that will relentlessly attack the cup.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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JD Yonke
Betting Analyst

JD is a diehard college football fan with five years of experience writing betting and fantasy content for publications such as SportsGrid, Fantasy Points, Fantrax, and Devy Watch. An avid reader, he uses his inclination to look at things with an exhausting and in-depth, analytic viewpoint combined with a love for statistics and metrics to form a well-rounded handicapping approach.

e's an integral member of the niche (but growing!) college fantasy football community, twice traveling to Canton, OH for the Fantasy Football Expo as a member of the CFF King's Classic drafting squad. His specialization in college football DFS and prop betting taught him that there are exploitable markets to be found and that narrowing your focus is integral to being a profitable bettor.

A lifelong Californian who grew up playing baseball, basketball, football, and lacrosse, he's glad to share a passionate love for sports with this wonderful community.

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