Final Four Predictions: 3 Reasons Why Arizona Will Beat Michigan Tonight

A spread of +1.5 in a college basketball game is as close to a pick’em as you will see. The sportsbook needs to give the edge to someone; anything -0.5 or -1 would simply be asking who will win.

The Arizona Wildcats are hardly underdogs against the Michigan Wolverines. Even the moneyline reflects that, sitting at just +105 at bet365.

Here's why the Wildcats will prevail in my March Madness picks for Saturday, April 4.

Ability to Shut Down Michigan’s 3-Point Shooting

When Michigan struggles from deep, the Wolverines are distinctly vulnerable. They went 1-5 ATS against NCAA Tournament teams this season when shooting worse than 30% from 3-point range. 

In a game that is effectively a pick’em, that trend becoming a reality would also suggest Michigan should lose outright.

And if there is anyone capable of limiting the Wolverines from deep, look at Arizona. The Wildcats don't allow many looks from deep, with opponents pulling up from distance only 37.5% of the time (No. 115 in the country). 

And Arizona makes those tough looks, holding foes to 31.0% from beyond the arc.

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Bigger Than Michigan

That sounds absurd. The Wolverines are led by 6-foot-9 senior forward Yaxel Lendeborg, and 7-foot-3 Aday Mara dominates the boards.

However, the Wildcats can throw 7-foot-2 Motiejus Krivas at Mara, and they then have a trio of wings that have the length to pester Lendeborg.

That length plays a big role in how Arizona limits opponents to just 44.1% from inside the arc, forcing shots to be taken from an average of seven feet away from the hoop, according to KenPom — ranking  15th in the nation.

Those numbers run directly counter to Michigan’s offensive usuals: 61.3% inside the arc and from only 4.7 feet from the rim on average.

In this strength vs. strength matchup, a defensive edge could spark an upset.

Better Backcourt at a High Pace

Both Arizona and Michigan intend to run on Saturday. The Wildcats rank No. 56 in the country in pace, while the Wolverines are No. 22. 

Frankly, the better set of ball-handers belongs to the Wildcats. Senior Jaden Bradley and freshman Brayden Burries spark an efficient offense, while the Wolverines lean on Elliot Cadeau for perhaps an undue amount, even though his turnover rate is worrisome.

Bradley hit a dramatic game-winner against Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament, a shot that may not have been noticed enough nationally but could be a precursor to some Final Four heroics.

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