Two teams at opposite ends of the WNBA playoff spectrum clash when the Las Vegas Aces visit the Washington Mystics on Wednesday, July 22.
Vegas, favored by 6.5 points in the WNBA odds, start the day two games back of the league-leading Lynx, while the Mystics are hanging on to the eighth and final postseason spot.
In a battle of high-scoring offense and stingy defense, my Aces vs. Mystics predictions and WNBA picks side with the visitors, who have owned this head-to-head matchup.
Aces vs Mystics prediction
Aces vs Mystics best bet: Aces -6.5 (-110)
The Washington Mystics own one of the WNBA's best defenses, ranking second in points allowed and Top 3 in both field-goal and 3-point shooting defense.
But the Las Vegas Aces present a different challenge, averaging 90.7 points per game on a league-best 48.8% shooting behind reigning MVP A'ja Wilson, who leads the league in scoring.
The Aces have also won seven of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, with six victories by eight or more points.
That combination of elite offense and sustained matchup success makes Las Vegas the play. I'd lay the points up to -7.5.
COVERS INTEL: Wilson led Vegas with 26 points and six rebounds in a road rout over the Tempo. That’s the fourth straight game Wilson has led the Aces in scoring and rebounding, the second time this season she’s had such a streak.
Aces vs Mystics same-game parlay
Chelsea Gray is fourth in the WNBA in assists at 7.4 per contest, and she’s topped her dime line of 6.5 in three of her last four starts.
However, those big-assist games were against Portland, Toronto and Phoenix, each ranking Bottom-5 in dimes allowed per game. Washington hasn’t allowed a player to hit seven assists in any of its last three home games and allows the third-fewest per game on the year (19.4).
Michaela Onyenwere ranks sixth in 3-point shooting in the WNBA, hitting at a sharp 41.7%, and she’s also hit at least two triples in three of her last four.
It’s a gettable 1.5 make line against a Vegas team that ranks outside the league’s Top 10 in 3-point shooting defense.
Aces vs Mystics SGP
- Aces -6.5
- Chelsea Gray Under 6.5 assists
- Michaela Onyenwere Over 1.5 threes
Aces vs Mystics player prop pick
A'ja Wilson Over 9.5 rebounds (-125)
Not only is Wilson the league’s top scorer, but she also ranks fourth in rebounds at 9.6 per game. She's the only player to rank in the Top 4 in both.
Wilson has gone for at least 10 boards in four of her last five and has pulled double-digit boards in 12 of her last 15 against Washington, missing the Over in two other games by a single rebound each.
- Best bet: 11-12, -1.02 units
- SGP: 1-21, -15.9 units
- Player prop: 7-3, +3.75 units
Aces vs Mystics odds
- Spread: Aces -6.5 (-110) | Mystics +6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Aces -260 | Mystics +210
- Over/Under: Over 164.5 (-110) | Under 164.5 (-110)
Aces vs Mystics trend
The Under has cashed in six of the last nine head-to-head meetings. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Aces vs Mystics
| Location | CareFirst Arena, Washington, DC |
| Date | Wednesday, July 22, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | KMCC, MNMT |
Aces vs Mystics latest injuries
Aces: Mai Yamamoto G (Out), Kierstan Bell F (Out), Janiah Barker F (Out).
Mystics: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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