Last Updated: February 17, 2026 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
After opening at No. 7 in the preseason AP Top 25, Michigan has surged to a 24–1 record and emerged as the favorite in the latest March Madness and college basketball odds.
As the regular season heats up in February, here’s an updated look at the National Championship odds.
March Madness odds
| Team |  |
Movement |
|---|---|---|
 Michigan |
+450 | ▲ |
 Arizona |
+475 | ▼ |
 Duke |
+700 | ▲ |
 Houston |
+800 | ▲ |
 Illinois |
+1400 | -- |
 Florida |
+1400 | ▲ |
 Iowa State |
+1500 | ▲ |
 UConn |
+1600 | -- |
 Purdue |
+2000 | ▲ |
 Kansas |
+2500 | ▼ |
Odds as of 2-17-2026.
Although Michigan remains on top, Duke is charging hard. The Blue Devils have moved from +800 to +700 over the past two weeks thanks to a three-game win streak that includes a 13-point victory over No. 20 Clemson.
Duke and Michigan are scheduled to face off on Saturday, February 21 in Durham in a game that could have profound implications on the AP Top 25 rankings as well as the odds board.
March Madness betting splits
Highest ticket percentage:
• Michigan 11.5%
• Duke 8.5%
• Arizona 7.0%
Highest handle percentage:
• Houston 14.0%
• Arizona 13.0%
• Michigan 11.8%
All data courtesy of BetMGM.
2026 March Madness futures bets
| Bet | Odds | Bet Date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Title: Michigan Wolverines | +450 | February 11 | 0.5 |
| Final Four: Kansas | +350 | February 11 | 0.5 |
| To Make NCAA Tournament Field of 68: USC | -105 | February 11 | 0.5 |
The Michigan Wolverines are atop nearly every rating system. Considering their size, experience, depth, and a 5-0 record against ranked opponents, I'm backing them to win the title.
With a healthy Darryn Peterson, the Kansas Jayhawks have looked like a title contender, and getting them at nearly 4:1 to make the Final Four would be a steal if he's at full strength by tourney time.
The Big Ten is looking like a 10-bid conference, and the 18-6 USC Trojans would likely slot into the final spot if the season ended today. They've won three in a row, and five-star freshman Alijah Arenas is finally hitting his stride after making his college debut in late January.
March Madness 2026 Bracketology & Seed Projections
Tracking the latest movement for the Top 16 seeds.
Projected No. 1 Seeds
-
Houston (+800) (South)
-
Michigan (+450) (Midwest)
-
Duke (+700) (East)
-
UConn (+1600) (West)
On the Bubble: Last Four In
- Saint Mary's (+25000)
- TCU (+35000)
- Missouri (+25000)
- San Diego State (+35000)
Be on the lookout for 23-4 Saint Mary's, which has won four in a row and is led by 6-foot-9 Lithuanian forward Paulius Murauskas (19.2 ppg).
Meanwhile, San Diego State reached the National Championship in 2023 and currently trails only Utah State in the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs have long been known for their physical style of play — one that can give any team trouble in the tournament.
March Madness 2026 schedule
| Event | Date | Location(s) |
|---|---|---|
| Selection Sunday | March 15 | -- |
| First Four | March 17-18 | UD Arena (Dayton, Ohio) |
| First Round | March 19-20 | Various |
| Second Round | March 21-22 | Various |
| Sweet 16 | March 26-27 | Toyota Center (Houston, Texas); SAP Center (San Jose, Calif.); United Center (Chicago, Ill.); Capital One Arena (Washington, D.C.) |
| Elite Eight | March 28-29 | Toyota Center (Houston, Texas); SAP Center (San Jose, Calif.); United Center (Chicago, Ill.); Capital One Arena (Washington, D.C.) |
| Final Four | April 4 | Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Ind.) |
| National Championship Game | April 6 | Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Ind.) |
Popular March Madness markets
2026 March Madness opening odds
- Houston +900
- Duke +1000
- UConn +1400
- Louisville +1700
- Auburn +1800
- Florida +1900
- Purdue +1900
- Kansas +2000
- Kentucky +2000
- Arkansas +2000
- BYU +2000
- Alabama +2000
- Michigan +2500
- Texas Tech +2500
- St. John's +2500
- Gonzaga +3000
- Michigan State +3000
- Iowa State +3000
- Arizona +4000
- UCLA +4000
- North Carolina +4000
- Illinois +6000
- Vanderbilt +15000
- Iowa +15000
- Nebraska +20000
Past March Madness winners
(Opening odds courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Champion | Opening odds | Runner-Up |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida |
+8000 | Houston |
| 2024 | Connecticut |
+1100 | Purdue |
| 2023 | Connecticut |
+1600 |  San Diego State |
| 2022 | Kansas |
+2000 |  North Carolina |
| 2021 |  Baylor |
+800 |  Gonzaga |
| 2020 | No tournament (COVID-19) | N/A | N/A |
| 2019 |  Virginia |
+1800 |  Texas Tech |
| 2018 |  Villanova |
+1200 | Michigan |
| 2017 | North Carolina |
+2400 | Gonzaga |
| 2016 | Villanova |
+2000 | North Carolina |
| 2015 | Duke |
+1000 |  Wisconsin |
March Madness trends
• Of the 20 teams that have entered the tournament with undefeated records, only seven have gone on to win the national championship.
• Only 13 teams successfully defended their national championship the following season.
• UCLA has the most NCAA titles of all time (11), although the Bruins have not won the tournament since 1995.
• A No. 1-seeded team has won the national championship 59.6% of the time since regional seeding was introduced in 1979.
March Madness Title Odds FAQs
The Michigan Wolverines (+450) are the favorites to win the national championship.
The Florida Gators won March Madness in 2025, defeating Houston 65-63 in the national championship.
The Duke Blue Devils are currently listed at +700 to win the natty.
Calculating March Madness odds involves assessing the probability of different outcomes in the tournament. Oddsmakers use various factors including team performance, player health, head-to-head matchups, tournament experience, coaching, venue, and advanced statistics. Bookmakers use these factors to set initial odds, and as bets are placed, odds may shift based on the money wagered on each side.
The only other school to win three-straight national championships is UCLA, who actually won seven straight titles from 1967-1973.
