After initially opening at No. 7 in the preseason AP Top 25, Michigan sports a 27–2 record and has emerged as the favorite in the latest March Madness and college basketball odds.
As the regular season comes to a close, here’s an updated look at the National Championship odds.
March Madness odds
| Team |  |
Movement |
|---|---|---|
 Michigan |
+320 | ▲ |
 Duke |
+350 | ▲ |
 Arizona |
+475 | ▲ |
 Florida |
+850 | ▲ |
 Houston |
+1100 | ▼ |
 UConn |
+1600 | ▼ |
 Illinois |
+1800 | ▼ |
 Iowa State |
+1800 | ▼ |
 Kansas |
+2500 | ▲ |
 Purdue |
+3000 | ▼ |
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How these odds have shifted
Michigan had been steamrolling the competition before coming up short in a neutral-site showdown with Duke, falling 68–63. Their odds dipped slightly to +375, but they’ve since responded with back-to-back wins, including an impressive road victory over No. 10 Illinois.
The Blue Devils have made the biggest jump, moving from +700 to +350 over the past two weeks, riding a six-game win streak that includes their win over the Wolverines.
Purdue’s defense continues to drag the Boilermakers down the odds board after the team started the season as the presumptive favorites. They are just 5-5 over their last 10 contests.
March Madness favorites
Michigan (+320)
Prior to their setback against Duke, the Wolverines’ only stumble came in January against Wisconsin, and Yaxel Lendeborg & Co. responded by rattling off 11 consecutive wins.
Michigan leads the Big Ten in scoring at 89.0 points per game, shooting 51.0% from the field.
Duke (+350)
The Blue Devils’ win over Duke has vaulted them to No. 1 in the latest AP Top 25, though Jon Scheyer’s team still faces challenging matchups against NC State and North Carolina to close out the regular season.
Cameron Boozer is the player to watch in Durham, emerging as one of the most highly-touted prospects for the upcoming NBA Draft. The freshman forward is leading Duke offensively, shooting 40.2% from three and averaging 22.5 points and 10.0 rebounds per game.
Arizona (+475)
The Wildcats sat atop the odds board and were undefeated before suffering back-to-back losses to No. 9 Kansas and No. 16 Texas Tech.
However, four straight wins — including a road victory over No. 5 Houston — have helped them reshape the narrative.
Arizona hasn't made it past the Sweet Sixteen in more than a decade, and this roster may be as well-positioned as any to finally get over the hump.
2026 March Madness futures bets
| Bet | Odds | Bet Date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Title: Michigan Wolverines | +450 | February 11 | 0.5 |
| Final Four: Kansas | +350 | February 11 | 0.5 |
| To Make NCAA Tournament Field of 68: USC | -105 | February 11 | 0.5 |
The Michigan Wolverines are atop nearly every rating system. Considering their size, experience, depth, and a 5-0 record against ranked opponents, I'm backing them to win the title.
With a healthy Darryn Peterson, the Kansas Jayhawks have looked like a title contender, and getting them at nearly 4:1 to make the Final Four would be a steal if he's at full strength by tourney time.
The Big Ten is looking like a 10-bid conference, and the 18-6 USC Trojans would likely slide into the final spot if the season ended today. They've won three in a row, and five-star freshman Alijah Arenas is finally hitting his stride after making his college debut in late January.
March Madness betting splits
Highest ticket percentage:
• Michigan 12.4%
• Duke 9.3%
• Arizona 6.8%
Highest handle percentage:
• Michigan 13.0%
• Houston 12.2%
• Arizona 11.9%
All data courtesy of BetMGM.
March Madness 2026 Bracketology & Seed Projections
Tracking the latest movement for the Top 16 seeds.
Projected No. 1 Seeds
-
UConn (+1600) (South)
-
Michigan (+320) (Midwest)
-
Duke (+350) (East)
-
Arizona (+475) (West)
On the Bubble: Last Four In
- Santa Clara (+50000)
- TCU (+40000)
- New Mexico (+50000)
- VCU (+40000)
Be on the lookout for the 24-7 Santa Clara Broncos, who trail only Gonzaga and Saint Mary's in the West Coast Conference standings.
Meanwhile, the TCU Horned Frogs have won six of their last seven as they look to make some late noise coming out of the Big 12.
March Madness 2026 schedule
| Event | Date | Location(s) |
|---|---|---|
| Selection Sunday | March 15 | -- |
| First Four | March 17-18 | UD Arena (Dayton, Ohio) |
| First Round | March 19-20 | Various |
| Second Round | March 21-22 | Various |
| Sweet 16 | March 26-27 | Toyota Center (Houston, Texas); SAP Center (San Jose, Calif.); United Center (Chicago, Ill.); Capital One Arena (Washington, D.C.) |
| Elite Eight | March 28-29 | Toyota Center (Houston, Texas); SAP Center (San Jose, Calif.); United Center (Chicago, Ill.); Capital One Arena (Washington, D.C.) |
| Final Four | April 4 | Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Ind.) |
| National Championship Game | April 6 | Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Ind.) |
Popular March Madness markets
2026 March Madness opening odds
- Houston +900
- Duke +1000
- UConn +1400
- Louisville +1700
- Auburn +1800
- Florida +1900
- Purdue +1900
- Kansas +2000
- Kentucky +2000
- Arkansas +2000
- BYU +2000
- Alabama +2000
- Michigan +2500
- Texas Tech +2500
- St. John's +2500
- Gonzaga +3000
- Michigan State +3000
- Iowa State +3000
- Arizona +4000
- UCLA +4000
- North Carolina +4000
- Illinois +6000
- Vanderbilt +15000
- Iowa +15000
- Nebraska +20000
Past March Madness winners
(Opening odds courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Champion | Opening odds | Runner-Up |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida |
+8000 | Houston |
| 2024 | Connecticut |
+1100 | Purdue |
| 2023 | Connecticut |
+1600 |  San Diego State |
| 2022 | Kansas |
+2000 |  North Carolina |
| 2021 |  Baylor |
+800 |  Gonzaga |
| 2020 | No tournament (COVID-19) | N/A | N/A |
| 2019 |  Virginia |
+1800 |  Texas Tech |
| 2018 |  Villanova |
+1200 | Michigan |
| 2017 | North Carolina |
+2400 | Gonzaga |
| 2016 | Villanova |
+2000 | North Carolina |
| 2015 | Duke |
+1000 |  Wisconsin |
March Madness trends
• Of the 20 teams that have entered the tournament with undefeated records, only seven have gone on to win the national championship.
• Only 13 teams successfully defended their national championship the following season.
• UCLA has the most NCAA titles of all time (11), although the Bruins have not won the tournament since 1995.
• A No. 1-seeded team has won the national championship 59.6% of the time since regional seeding was introduced in 1979.
Embrace the madness
Visit our best March Madness betting sites today to wager on this year's men's basketball tournament. You're very own "One Shining Moment" opportunity awaits!
March Madness Title Odds FAQs
The Michigan Wolverines (+320) are the favorites to win the national championship.
The Florida Gators won March Madness in 2025, defeating Houston 65-63 in the national championship.
The Duke Blue Devils are currently listed at +700 to win the natty.
Calculating March Madness odds involves assessing the probability of different outcomes in the tournament. Oddsmakers use various factors including team performance, player health, head-to-head matchups, tournament experience, coaching, venue, and advanced statistics. Bookmakers use these factors to set initial odds, and as bets are placed, odds may shift based on the money wagered on each side.
The only other school to win three-straight national championships is UCLA, who actually won seven straight titles from 1967-1973.
You can find spreads for every 2026 March Madness game by visiting our Covers NCAAB Scores & Matchup page. You'll find complete betting lines, line movement data, consensus picks and much more.
