The 2026 March Madness Bracket is here, and after closing out the regular season with a 29-2 record, Duke is the No. 1 seed and betting favorite in the latest March Madness and college basketball odds.
With the play-in games underway and the rest of the NCAA Tournament soon to tip off, here’s an updated look at the National Championship odds.
March Madness odds
| Team |  |
My Take |
|---|---|---|
 Duke |
+325 | No. 1 in Adjusted Efficiency Margin. |
 Michigan |
+350 | No. 1 in Strength of Record (SRS: 33.83). |
 Arizona |
+400 | Wildcats boast huge +10.8 REB margin. |
 Florida |
+750 | Reigning champs were on 11-game win streak before Vandy loss. |
 Houston |
+1000 | 2nd-fewest PPG allowed of any team. |
 Iowa State |
+1800 | Lost 4/5 to ranked teams to end season. |
 Illinois |
+2200 | No. 2 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. |
 Purdue |
+2500 | 6 wins against Top 25 teams. |
 UConn |
+2800 | Just 13-21 (38.2%) ATS. |
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How these odds have shifted
Michigan had been steamrolling the competition before coming up short in a neutral-site showdown with Duke on Feb. 21, falling 68–63. Their odds have dipped slightly to +350, but they ended the regular season with four straight wins, including victories over No. 9 Illinois and No. 8 Michigan State.
The Blue Devils have made the biggest jump, moving from +700 to +325 over the past month, riding an eight-game win streak that includes their win over the Wolverines.
Purdue’s (+2500) defense continues to drag the Boilermakers down the odds board after the team started the season as the presumptive favorites. They went on a 2-4 slump before running the table in the Big Ten tourney.
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March Madness favorites
Duke (+325)
The Blue Devils’ win over Michigan vaulted them to No. 1 in the latest AP Top 25, and they haven't looked back, earning an unsurprising No. 1 seed in the East Region.
Cameron Boozer is the player to watch in Durham, emerging as one of the most highly-touted prospects for the upcoming NBA Draft. The freshman forward is leading Duke offensively, averaging 22.5 points and 10.2 rebounds per game.
Michigan (+350)
Prior to their setback against Duke, Michigan's only stumble came in January against Wisconsin, and Yaxel Lendeborg & Co. responded by rattling off 11 consecutive wins en route to the No. 1 seed in the Midwest.
The Wolverines lead the Big Ten in scoring at 87.3 points per game, shooting 50.7% from the field.
Arizona (+400)
The Wildcats sat atop the odds board and were undefeated before suffering back-to-back losses to No. 14 Kansas and No. 16 Texas Tech.
However, nine straight wins — including running the table to win the Big 12 Tournament — have helped them reshape the narrative.
Arizona hasn't made it past the Sweet Sixteen in more than a decade, and this roster may be as well-positioned as any to finally get over the hump.
2026 March Madness futures bets
| Bet | Odds | Bet Date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Title: Michigan |
+450 | Feb. 11 | 0.5 |
Final Four:  Kansas |
+350 | Feb. 11 | 0.5 |
❌ To Make NCAA Tournament:  USC |
-105 | Feb. 11 | 0.5 |
| West Region: Arizona |
-135 | Mar. 18 | 1.0 |
| Elite Eight: Iowa State |
-115 | Mar. 18 | 1.0 |
The Michigan Wolverines are atop nearly every rating system. Considering their size, experience, depth, and a 5-0 record against ranked opponents, I'm backing them to win the title.
With a healthy Darryn Peterson, the Kansas Jayhawks have looked like a title contender, and getting them at nearly 4:1 to make the Final Four would be a steal if he's at full strength by tourney time.
Sometimes, futures bets go like this. USC was 18-6 when this initial "make the tournament" wager was placed. but the Trojans went on to lose their final eight games of the season in an epic late-year meltdown.
Among Arizona, Duke, and Michigan, the Wildcats have the easier path to the Final Four. Arizona is at full strength, and its freshman seem to be hitting their stride. The Wildcats will power through the West Region, where every other top team has major flaws.
Unlike past versions of Iowa State, this squad rebounds at a high level and has the grit to win games when the shots aren't falling. The three toughest possible opponents on the road to the Elite Eight are Kentucky, Tennessee, and Virginia, and the Cyclones are rated significantly higher than all of them.
March Madness odds over time
March Madness betting splits
Highest ticket percentage:
• Michigan 11.4%
• Duke 10.0%
• Arizona 8.7%
Highest handle percentage:
• Arizona 14.4%
• Michigan 14.0%
• Florida 10.6%
All data courtesy of BetMGM.
Bettors have been banking big all season on the Wolverines, who have the highest ticket percentage and handle percentage in the nation.
Michigan spent all 19 weeks in the AP Top 25, starting out at No. 7 in the preseason and climbing to No. 1 in mid-February.
March Madness 2026 schedule
| Event | Date | Location(s) |
|---|---|---|
| Selection Sunday | March 15 | -- |
| First Four | March 17-18 | UD Arena (Dayton, Ohio) |
| First Round | March 19-20 | Various |
| Second Round | March 21-22 | Various |
| Sweet 16 | March 26-27 | Toyota Center (Houston, Texas); SAP Center (San Jose, Calif.); United Center (Chicago, Ill.); Capital One Arena (Washington, D.C.) |
| Elite Eight | March 28-29 | Toyota Center (Houston, Texas); SAP Center (San Jose, Calif.); United Center (Chicago, Ill.); Capital One Arena (Washington, D.C.) |
| Final Four | April 4 | Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Ind.) |
| National Championship Game | April 6 | Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Ind.) |
Popular March Madness markets
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2026 March Madness opening odds
- Houston +900
- Duke +1000
- UConn +1400
- Louisville +1700
- Auburn +1800
- Florida +1900
- Purdue +1900
- Kansas +2000
- Kentucky +2000
- Arkansas +2000
- BYU +2000
- Alabama +2000
- Michigan +2500
- Texas Tech +2500
- St. John's +2500
- Gonzaga +3000
- Michigan State +3000
- Iowa State +3000
- Arizona +4000
- UCLA +4000
- North Carolina +4000
- Illinois +6000
- Vanderbilt +15000
- Iowa +15000
- Nebraska +20000
Bookmakers had high hopes for Louisville entering the 2025-26 season, but the Cardinals have largely underperformed to the tune of a dismal 3-6 record against Top 25 teams. Their inability to hang with the best programs in the country doesn't bode well for their chances of playing in April.
Past March Madness winners
(Opening odds courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Champion | Opening odds | Runner-Up |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida |
+8000 | Houston |
| 2024 | Connecticut |
+1100 | Purdue |
| 2023 | Connecticut |
+1600 |  San Diego State |
| 2022 | Kansas |
+2000 |  North Carolina |
| 2021 |  Baylor |
+800 |  Gonzaga |
| 2020 | No tournament (COVID-19) | N/A | N/A |
| 2019 |  Virginia |
+1800 |  Texas Tech |
| 2018 |  Villanova |
+1200 | Michigan |
| 2017 | North Carolina |
+2400 | Gonzaga |
| 2016 | Villanova |
+2000 | North Carolina |
| 2015 | Duke |
+1000 |  Wisconsin |
March Madness trends
• Of the 20 teams that have entered the tournament with undefeated records, only seven have gone on to win the national championship.
• Only 13 teams successfully defended their national championship the following season.
• UCLA has the most NCAA titles of all time (11), although the Bruins have not won the tournament since 1995.
• A No. 1-seeded team has won the national championship 59.6% of the time since regional seeding was introduced in 1979.
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March Madness Title Odds FAQs
The Duke Blue Devils (+325) are the favorites to win the national championship, followed closely by the Michigan Wolverines (+350).
The Florida Gators won March Madness in 2025, defeating Houston 65-63 in the national championship.
The Duke Blue Devils are currently listed at +325 to win the natty.
Calculating March Madness odds involves assessing the probability of different outcomes in the tournament. Oddsmakers use various factors including team performance, player health, head-to-head matchups, tournament experience, coaching, venue, and advanced statistics. Bookmakers use these factors to set initial odds, and as bets are placed, odds may shift based on the money wagered on each side.
The only other school to win three-straight national championships is UCLA, who actually won seven straight titles from 1967-1973.
You can find spreads for every 2026 March Madness game by visiting our Covers NCAAB Scores & Matchup page. You'll find complete betting lines, line movement data, consensus picks and much more.
