The ACC/SEC Challenge continues with a matchup of two ranked teams in Fayetteville when Arkansas hosts Louisville.
This one figures to be entertaining with two teams that love to run.
I break down the matchup in my Louisville vs. Arkansas predictions and college basketball picks for Wednesday, December 3, and explain why this will be the "Ryan Conwell game."
Louisville vs Arkansas prediction
Louisville vs Arkansas best bet: Ryan Conwell Over 19.5 points (-115)
Ryan Conwell has been one of the best transfers in the country and will enter this matchup with a ton of confidence. I projected his scoring line at 21.5, so I’ll gladly take Over 19.5.
I project over 75 possessions for this matchup; anecdotally, that’s been the exact type of game that Conwell has thrived in. Such trends date back to last season, when he averaged two points more than his season average in games with 70+ possessions with Xavier.
Matchup-wise, there’s a lot to like for him this evening as well.
The Arkansas Razorbacks do a good job denying transition volume. But when teams actually get out and run, the Hogs have allowed around a point per possession, placing them in the Bottom 8% of college hoops.
I think they may have to live with that more than they’d prefer, given that a fast pace is better for them on the other end. Conwell is the Louisville Cardinals' best transition wing and primary trail/hit-ahead option, so every leak the Hogs have in that phase funnels directly to him.
The second aspect of this is where things really take off — the halfcourt.
Conwell grades as Louisville’s best high-volume perimeter shooter and is the primary spacer in their Spain and ghost-screen actions, punishing Arkansas’ overhelp at the nail.
Mikel Brown may have the most overall talent on this Cardinals team, but Conwell’s shot diet of spot-ups, relocation threes, and straight-line drives makes him the most attractive option to score against a subpar defense.
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Louisville vs Arkansas same-game parlay
Louisville has surprisingly been one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country (30th in offensive rebounding percentage), and Arkansas has been pretty much average there this season.
Sananda Fru is easily Louisville’s most efficient offensive rebounder, which makes at least one assist appealing given the Hogs’ issues defending kick-outs on second-chance opportunities and his regular role as a screener/roller in the halfcourt.
Darius Acuff has scoring upside in what should be a breakneck game, as Louisville’s defense has struggled to contain dribble jumpers and transition — two areas that line up perfectly with his scoring profile.
Louisville vs Arkansas SGP
- Ryan Conwell Over 19.5 points
- Sananda Fru Over 0.5 assists
- Darius Acuff Jr. Over 17.5 points
Our beyond the arc SGP: Death by Fru Fru
Arkansas is soft on the defensive glass, while Fru has been one of Louisville’s most active rebounders, clearing 5.5 boards in two straight and living on second-chance chances.
On the perimeter, Arkansas’ length should turn Brown more into a table-setter than a scorer in a game that’s likely heavy halfcourt.
Louisville vs Arkansas SGP
- Ryan Conwell Over 19.5 points
- Sananda Fru Over 0.5 assists
- Darius Acuff Jr. Over 17.5 points
- Sananda Fru Over 5.5 rebounds
- Mikel Brown Jr. Over 5.5 assists
Louisville vs Arkansas odds
- Spread: Louisville -3.5 | Arkansas +3.5
- Moneyline: Louisville -166 | Arkansas +138
- Over/Under: Over 165.5 | Under 165.5
Louisville vs Arkansas betting trend to know
Louisville have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Louisville vs. Arkansas.
How to watch Louisville vs Arkansas
| Location | Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AR |
| Date | Wednesday, December 3, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Louisville vs Arkansas key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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