Florida State vs Colorado Odds, Picks and Predictions: Buffs Break Down Seminoles

The Colorado Buffaloes had a mediocre season last year but have gotten off to a perfect start thus far. With a better defense and an improved offense, our college basketball picks expect the Buffs to steamroll the Seminoles.

Nov 21, 2023 • 12:29 ET • 4 min read
KJ Simpson Colorado Buffaloes NCAAB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Colorado Buffaloes take on the Florida State Seminoles in the championship of the Beach Bracket of the Sunshine Slam Tournament on Tuesday. There are plenty of early-season tournaments tipping off across the country at this time of the year, and this one takes play at Daytona Beach in Florida which could give the Tallahassee-based Seminoles plenty of support from the fans.

They'll need it because the college basketball odds have the No. 18 ranked Buffaloes as 5-point betting favorites. Here are my best free college basketball basketball picks for Colorado vs. Florida State on November 21.

Florida State vs Colorado best odds

Florida State vs Colorado picks and predictions

The Colorado Buffaloes held off the Richmond Spiders last night to win by a final score of 64-59. That improved the Buffs record to 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread — although they've faced subpar competition with their previous victories coming against Milwaukee, Grambling, and Towson.

The Florida State Seminoles beat UNLV 83-75 yesterday in a strong offensive display that saw them shoot 63% from the floor. They do have a loss on their resume after going down to Gainesville and getting clobbered 89-68 on the weekend.

While there's no shame in losing on the road to a solid Florida team, trailing by 30 points at half is a bad look especially when they routinely struggled to knock down shots and get stops on defense. 

The Seminoles are coming off an ugly season where they went just 9-23 and then lost two of their Top 3 leading scorers in guard Caleb Mills and former five-star recruit Matthew Cleveland. However, this FSU team should be slightly better this season with plenty of other key players returning including guard Darin Green Jr.

This is an athletic squad with plenty of size as Green and backup guard Josh Nickelberry are the shortest players in their rotation at 6-foot-5, while talented sophomores Cam Corhen and Baba Miller will see plenty of floor time and check in at 6-foot-10 and 6-foot-11 respectively. 

The Buffs are also coming off a mediocre season after going 18-17 and finishing four games below .500 in Pac-12 play. That said, they return almost their entire rotation led by guard K.J. Simpson and forward Tristan da Silva who were both named to the preseason Pac-12 All-Conference first team. They also added center Eddie Lampkin Jr. from TCU through the transfer portal and signed forward Cody Williams who was the No. 4 recruit in the nation according to 247Sports

There's a reason Colorado is ranked so high in the AP Poll and its combination of experience, chemistry, and talent will make it a tough team to beat this year. Keep in mind that the Buffs finished last season ranked 30th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and should be just as stingy with so many returning players.

Although they ranked just 128th on offense, they'll be better on that end of the floor thanks to continuity, the ability of Williams to attack the basket, and Lampkin's efficiency in the low post. 

The Noles were brutal defensively last season (239th in adjusted defense) and while they should be a bit better in that area, I expect them to struggle on offense once again. This is a team that lacks high-end talent, doesn't have the shooters to stretch the floor, and doesn't do a good job of taking care of the ball. 

FSU is going to go cold for stretches and when it does, the defense isn't good enough to keep more skilled players in check. Take Colorado to win and cover here.

My best bet: Colorado -5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Florida State vs Colorado same-game parlay

Colorado -5

Under 151.5

Jamir Watkins Under 13.5 points

This total seems a bit high when you consider how good the Buffs are on the defensive end of the floor and the slower tempo they prefer to play. Look for them to try to slow things down and prevent transition buckets from the Noles while forcing them into making shots from half-court sets. 

The O/U on Florida State forward Jamir Watkins' points total is set at 13.5, and while he has dropped 19 points in two games this year, his sky-high field goal percentage in those contests isn't sustainable. He went 6-for-8 from the field against Central Michigan and 8-for-11 against UNLV, but he'll find it much tougher to score against a stingy Colorado defense.

Keep in mind Watkins went 3-for-11 from the field against Florida and scored just two points in 20 minutes against Kennesaw State in the season opener. He also averaged a modest 9.5 ppg on 41.3% shooting as a sophomore at VCU last year.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Florida State vs Colorado spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened with Colorado at -4.5 and the Over/Under at 152. Early money has come in on the Buffs shifting the line to -5.5 at most books although some are still offering -5 as of noon ET. The total has ticked down ever-so-slightly to 151.5.

Florida State vs Colorado betting trend to know

The Seminoles are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against Power 6 foes. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida State vs. Colorado.

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Florida State vs Colorado game info

Location: Ocean Center, Daytona Beach, FL
Date: Tuesday, November 21, 2023
Tip-off: 4:00 p.m. ET

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