The No. 11-ranked Louisville Cardinals host the Memphis Tigers in college basketball action on Saturday.
The Cardinals are an offensive powerhouse and sit as 15.5-point favorites, but my Memphis vs. Louisville predictions think the spread is a tad too wide.
See why with my college basketball picks for this non-conference clash on December 13.
Memphis vs Louisville prediction
Memphis vs Louisville best bet: Memphis +15.5 (-105)
The Louisville Cardinals entered this season with national title aspirations and have rolled to an 8-1 record. After losing their first game of the season at No. 17 Arkansas last week, they bounced back with an 87-78 win against Indiana.
The Cardinals launch threes at the highest rate in the nation and knock them down at a 36% clip. They're also highly efficient inside the arc and sit in the Top 50 in turnover rate. That said, their stock is at a sell-high point making this line a tad too wide.
The Memphis Tigers got off to a poor start this season, losing four of their first five games. However, they've gone 7-1 against the spread this season and are trending in the right direction. They're now on a three-game win streak and are fresh off a 78-71 win against Baylor.
Former five-star recruit Aaron Bradshaw had averaged just 10.8 minutes per game through his first contests with his new school. However, the center has logged 15.5 points in 21.0 minutes per game over his last two contests.
Meanwhile, Louisville's five-star guard Mikel Brown has struggled with his shot after a great start to his college career. The freshman is shooting just 30.8% from the field and 19.5% from the arc over his last five games.
When the Tigers faced Purdue (then the No. 1 team in the country) in Nassau three weeks ago, they were 14.5-point underdogs. They were neck-and-neck until the five minutes before the Boilermakers pulled away for a nine-point win.
Expect the Tigers to keep things within a big number against a highly-ranked opponent again.
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Memphis vs Louisville same-game parlay
While I'm betting on Memphis to cover this big spread, I still think Louisville is the far better team and will get the win at home.
If the Tigers want to cover this spread, they need to make sure Louisville doesn't go ballistic from deep. Brown has knocked down fewer than 2.5 threes in four of his last five games.
The Cardinals have been elite on offense but aren't as good on the other end of the floor. That combined with their blazing-fast pace can lead to inflated offensive numbers for their opponents.
That's good news for Memphis point guard Dug McDaniel who has dropped more than 5.5 dimes in six of eight games this season.
Memphis vs Louisville SGP
- Memphis +15.5
- Louisville ML
- Mikel Brown Under 2.5 threes
- Dug McDaniel Over 5.5 assists
Our beyond the arc SGP: Fru ball
Louisville center Sananda Fru has grabbed fewer than 7.5 boards in seven of his last eight games.
Memphis vs Louisville SGP
- Memphis +15.5
- Louisville ML
- Mikel Brown Under 2.5 threes
- Dug McDaniel Over 5.5 assists
- Sananda Fru Under 7.5 rebounds
Memphis vs Louisville odds
- Spread: Memphis +15.5 (-105) | Louisville -15.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Memphis +950 | Louisville -1700
- Over/Under: Over 160.5 | Under 160.5
Memphis vs Louisville betting trend to know
The Tigers are 7-1 ATS this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Memphis vs. Louisville.
How to watch Memphis vs Louisville
| Location | KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY |
| Date | Saturday, December 13, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Memphis vs Louisville key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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