The college basketball betting board for Saturday is filled with marquee matchups, but none is bigger than the showdown between the No. 7 Duke Blue Devils and the No. 3 North Carolina Tar Heels at the Dean Smith Center.
This is one of the best rivalries in sports and there's plenty on the line with both squads gunning for the ACC title and a No. 1 seed in next month's March Madness.
College basketball odds opened with UNC as a 4.5-point home favorite and the total sitting at 152.5. Here are my free college basketball picks for Duke vs. North Carolina on February 3.
Duke vs North Carolina best odds
Duke vs North Carolina picks and predictions
These schools enter this game looking like two of the top teams in the country. The Duke Blue Devils have won 11 of their last 12 games and beat Virginia Tech by double digits on the road last time out.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are coming off a shocking loss on the road against Georgia Tech but that snapped a 10-game winning streak where they went 8-1-1 against the spread.
To be fair, facing a below .500 team like Georgia Tech before a game like this was one hell of a look-ahead spot and the Blue Devils were also upset by the Yellow Jackets so they're also guilty of overlooking them.
The Tar Heels are fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency but I'm not sold on that rating. They got torched when they faced strong teams in the non-conference part of their schedule, surrendering 92 points to Tennessee at home while giving up 87 points to UConn and Kentucky at neutral sites.
While the Tar Heels are 22nd in the country in opponent 3-point percentage (29.9%), ShotQualityBets ranks them outside the Top 250 in quality of 3-point shots allowed so expect regression.
That regression may have begun earlier this week with Georgia Tech shooting 45% from the arc and now they face a Duke side that shoots a sizzling 38.7% from deep.
Both of these attacks have been highly efficient but Duke has better depth and more players that can create their own offense. They also rarely turn the ball over and have excellent ball movement which will help them unlock a UNC defense that doesn't pressure ball-handlers.
Dean Smith Center is an extremely tough venue for visitors but the Blue Devils have left Chapel Hill with a victory in three of their last four trips here — including last year as 4-point dogs. Take them with the points in what should be another thrilling showdown.
My best bet: Duke +4.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
Duke vs North Carolina same-game parlay
Duke +4.5
R.J. Davis Over 20.5 points
Jared McCain Over 1.5 made threes
R.J. Davis is looking like an All-American and leads the Tar Heels with 21.5 ppg on 45/41/92 shooting splits. He's been on fire lately with 36, 24, and 28 points in his last three games.
The Blue Devils have done a terrific job of clogging up the paint but they're vulnerable against quicker guards like Davis who operate on the perimeter. Davis has been carrying the Tar Heels offense lately and he'll likely keep taking a ton of shots since their other double-digit scorers have struggled.
Armando Bacot is averaging just 7.3 ppg in his last four games, Cormac Ryan shoots just 37.3% from the field on the season, and Harrison Ingram has a points O/U of 11.5 but has been held below that number in 11 of his last 12 games.
Duke guard Jared McCain is coming off a poor shooting performance against the Hokies, going 1-6 from beyond the arc, but since I'm expecting regression for UNC's perimeter defense, it makes sense to bet on McCain to bounce back.
The freshman sharpshooter has drained at least a pair of treys in 10 of his last 12 contests, averaging 2.5 made threes per game over that span.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Duke vs North Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread opened with the Tar Heels at -4 and the O/U at 152. Both have seen modest line movement with the spread moving up half a point to -4.5 and the total ticking up to 152.5.
The Blue Devils are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games although they've covered the spread just twice in their last seven. The Tar Heels are coming off a loss as a 9-point road fave against Georgia Tech but are back home where they've gone a perfect 9-0 SU this season.
It's interesting to note that Duke swept the series last season, winning 62-57 at Chapel Hill and 63-57 at Durham. While both of those contests were extremely low-scoring, we're seeing a much higher total here despite both lineups having plenty of continuity from last season.
That said, Duke has been far more consistent in half-court sets since many of their starters have at least a year of experience under their belt while the Tar Heels are shooting the ball much better from downtown.
Duke vs North Carolina betting trend to know
The Under is 10-4 in Duke's last 14 games on the road (+5.60 units / 36% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. North Carolina.
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Duke vs North Carolina game info
| Location: | Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC |
| Date: | Saturday, February 3, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Duke vs North Carolina key injuries
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