There’s nothing quite like revenge, especially in the Sweet 16. The Duke Blue Devils haven’t forgotten their 93-77 loss to the LSU Lady Tigers in December, a defeat that stung deeply.
Since then, Duke has had time to regroup, make adjustments, and study how LSU executes its game plan. This sets the stage for a highly competitive matchup, with the Blue Devils ready to make tonight’s clash a closely contested battle.
Read on for my women's March Madness pick on how things will unfold on Friday, March 27.
Duke vs LSU prediction
Who will win Duke vs LSU?
LSU: The Lady Tigers have been strong in the paint, both scoring and rebounding. With standout post players controlling the boards, LSU can limit Duke’s second-chance points while generating extra opportunities for themselves. This physicality inside may force Duke to rely on perimeter shooting, which can be streaky.
Duke vs LSU best bet: Duke +9.5 (-105 at bet365)
Controlling the paint will be the X-factor in tonight’s Sweet 16 clash.
Duke’s biggest test will be keeping LSU’s bigs, Kate Koval and Amiya Joyner, in check. To do that, the Blue Devils will rely on Toby Fournier and Delaney Thomas. In the NCAA Tournament so far, LSU has outscored opponents 112-34 in points in the paint, while Duke sits at 80-44, highlighting the battle that will define this matchup.
Since their last meeting, Duke has tightened up defensively, holding opponents to just 55.7 points per game. As the team’s leading scorer (17.4 ppg), top rebounder (8 rpg), and primary shot-blocker (2.3 bpg), Fournier must stay aggressive in limiting LSU’s interior presence.
Meanwhile, Thomas — who powered Duke past Baylor in the second round with a 17-point performance — will need to continue producing key points and energy inside to help the Blue Devils stay competitive.
It’s simple: Duke keeps the Tigers out of the paint and maintain the lockdown defense they’ve become known for, they’ll stay within striking distance and keep LSU on their heels.
COVERS INTEL: Duke hasn’t defeated the LSU Lady Tigers in the Women’s NCAA Tournament since their tightly contested second-round clash in 2010, when the Blue Devils edged out a 60-52 win over the purple and gold.
Duke vs LSU same-game parlay
Over 144.5
LSU moneyline
As previously mentioned, Duke’s defense has improved dramatically since December, particularly in creating turnovers that can fuel their offense on the other end. While LSU also prides itself on stout defensive play, both teams are too deep and talented for this game to trend Under.
The Lady Tigers lead the nation in bench scoring (38.6 points per game) and overall offense (95.3), while Duke is 10-3 when hitting 35% or better from three-point range, with a +18 average margin of victory.
With elite rosters on both sides, the pace and talent should push this game to the Over, even with strong defense in play at Golden 1 Center.
Ultimately, LSU looks more than ready to secure a fourth consecutive Elite Eight appearance. Duke will challenge them every step of the way, but the Lady Tigers’ depth and balance make them the team likely to come out on top.
Duke vs LSU SGP
- Over 144.5
- LSU moneyline
Duke vs LSU odds
- Spread: Duke +9.5 (-112) | LSU -9.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: Duke +320 | LSU -450
- Over/Under: Over 144.5 (-112) | Under 144.5 (-112)
Duke vs LSU betting trend to know
Duke is 10-3 with a +18 margin of victory when it shoots at or over 35% from beyond the arc. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. LSU.
How to watch Duke vs LSU
| Location | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA |
| Date | Friday, March 27, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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