The No. 10 Duke Blue Devils roll into the second round of the ACC Tournament, where the No. 7 Louisville Cardinals await in Greensboro on Wednesday.
Duke blew away Boston College in the opening round, covering as 13-point college basketball betting favorites, and now faces a UL squad that knocked off the Blue Devils in both matchups during the regular season. The Cardinals most recently edged the Dukies 80-73 in overtime as 5-point road underdogs on February 27.
Here are our NCAA basketball betting free picks and predictions for Duke vs. Louisville on March 10.
Duke vs Louisville odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonDuke hit the PointsBet USA odds board as 2-point chalk Tuesday evening, got to -3 this morning and briefly returned to -2 before spending most of the day at -2.5. "Seventy-three percent of tickets and 78 percent of money on the Blue Devils," PointsBet's Wyatt Yearout said of point-spread action as of 5:30 p.m. ET, an hour before tipoff. The total hasn't moved much, opening at 140.5, upping to 141, dipping to 140 and now sitting at 140.5. However, the Over is nabbing 87 percent of bets/92 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Duke Blue Devils vs Louisville Cardinals betting preview
Injuries
Duke: No injuries to report.
Louisville: Aidan Igiehon F (Questionable), Josh Nickelberry G (Questionable), Malik Williams C (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. Find more NCAA betting trends for Duke vs. Louisville.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
So, which version of the Blue Devils show up in the second round of the ACC Tournament: the team that torched Boston College on 52.5 percent shooting, including a 15-for-32 effort from beyond the arc? Or will we see the team that dropped its final three games of the regular season, shooting 43 percent in that span including a nasty 16-for-75 from distance?
It’s tough to take Duke’s dominant performance over BC seriously, given how bad the Eagles were this season. Louisville presents a much stiffer test, most notably on defense, where the Cardinals keep opponents to 66.3 points per contest and protect the 3-point arc to the tune of just 30.1 percent shooting. Louisville comes into the tournament ranked 41st in adjusted defensive efficiency in the country.
Louisville held Duke to 65 points in regulation in both of those contests, with the Blue Devils shooting a collective 51-for-113 from the floor and just 12-for-47 from beyond the arc. The Cardinals’ pressure defense also forced 29 total turnovers in those meetings and owned the glass, out-rebounding Duke 72-55, with 23 of those boards coming on the offensive end.
It’s tough to top a team three times in one season but there’s definitely some recency bias building behind Duke after Tuesday’s win, as well as plenty of public play from the legions of Duke fans. The Cardinals have covered in four straight meetings with Coach K’s kids – three of those paydays coming as underdogs.
PREDICTION: Louisville +2 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Duke ain’t knocking down 15 triples against this UL perimeter defense, so you can forget a repeat of Tuesday’s scoring surge. The Blue Devils were bogged down on offense to end the regular season and if not for a pair of overtime games versus Louisville and Georgia Tech, Duke would be on a 3-1 Under run heading into the second round of the ACC postseason.
The Cardinals had a strange February due to COVID-19 cancellations, playing only four games last month before the season finale with Virginia on March 1. That’s held back any chemistry for Chris Mack’s program and it shows, with UL averaging only 61.5 points on 39.4 percent shooting, including a wretched 17-for-62 mark (27.4 percent) from beyond the 3-point arc in those four games.
Duke and Louisville finished below the 142-point total in their matchup on January 23 and if not for the 65-65 tie at the end of 40 minutes, they would have also stayed below the 141-point number in February 27. These ACC rivals have turned profits for the Under in six of their last 10 matchups and will do the same in Greensboro Wednesday.
PREDICTION: Under 141 (-110)
Duke vs Louisville betting card
- Louisville +2 (-110)
- Under 141 (-110)
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