The No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish needed a 3-point buzzer-beater to slide into the second round of the ACC Tournament, where they’ll face the No. 6 North Carolina Tar Heels in Greensboro Wednesday.
The Irish rode a 17-2 surge to close an 80-77 comeback win over Wake Forest in the opening round Tuesday. Notre Dame was pushed around on defense for most of that game and faces a UNC squad still needing to do some work to secure a spot in the NCAA Field of 68.
Check out our college basketball betting free picks and predictions for Notre Dame vs. North Carolina on March 10.
Notre Dame vs North Carolina odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonNorth Carolina landed on the TwinSpires odds board as a 6.5-point favorite, spent some time at -7 and is back down to -6.5 45 minutes ahead of this 9 p.m. ET tipoff. The Tar Heels are attracting 75 percent of bets and 78 percent of cash on the point spread. In addition, TwinSpires noted there's significant moneyline parlay action running to North Carolina, so the book could use a Notre Dame outright victory. The total moved from 150 to 151.5, with 60 percent of bets/66 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs North Carolina Tar Heels betting preview
Injuries
Notre Dame: Cormac Ryan G (Probable).
North Carolina: Puff Johnson G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
North Carolina is 4-9-1 ATS away from home this season (road and neutral court). Find more NCAA betting trends for Notre Dame vs. North Carolina.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
To say Notre Dame had the luck of the Irish versus Wake Forest would be an understatement. Notre Dame was bullied on the defensive end by a so-so Demon Deacons attack that pounded the Irish on the offensive glass, grabbing 15 offensive boards, and held a 75-63 lead at the 7:19 mark of the second half.
Enter the Tar Heels, who rank among the rebounding elite. Roy Williams’ crew boasts the second-best rebounding rate in the country (57.1 percent) and pulls in an average of 13.4 offensive rebounds per contest on the year. North Carolina corralled 20 offensive boards (out-rebounding the Irish 44-25) when it edged Notre Dame 66-65 as 10-point home chalk back on January 2—a lifetime ago in the COVID-challenge ACC slate.
That said, North Carolina has been terribly inconsistent over the past month, taking down rival Duke by 18 points in the regular-season finale, knocking off ranked Florida State 78-70 back on February 27, and blasting Louisville by 45 on February 20. However, UNC has also laid big stinky eggs in matchups with Syracuse and Marquette in that stretch.
The common thread in those positive showings was that they all came at home, where UNC’s youngsters thrive (ranked 326th in experience). The Heels were undefeated in Chapel Hill during conference play and owned an average home-court margin of +11.5 points this year.
However, take fresh-faced UNC out of the Dean Dome and that margin slides to just +0.1, leading to a 4-9-1 ATS record away from home. We’re leaning toward the veteran Irish squad (45th in experience) getting the points after being scared straight in the opening round.
PREDICTION: Notre Dame +6 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Notre Dame that finally showed up in the final seven minutes versus Wake Forest is the same team that stunned Florida State in the regular-season finale. The Fighting Irish need to hit the 80-point mark to have a shot of winning this one and there’s a good chance they get there since UNC’s defense is just as soft as the Notre Dame’s.
The Tar Heels give up an average of eight 3-pointers per game and watch opponents connect on over 34 percent of those long-range looks. Notre Dame banged in 11 triples in their meeting on January 2 and make nearly 37 percent of their attempts from beyond the arc on the season. The Fighting Irish are also 16th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom.
The Heels attack loves to run, sitting 42nd in adjusted pace and 64th in offensive efficiency. While they may not be the sharpest shooting team in the conference, they can pile up the points with pace and putbacks from those offensive boards.
While these programs played well Under the number in their only ACC meeting this year, both have leaned towards the Over in recent play. North Carolina enters the postseason on a 4-2 Over/Under run in its last six while Notre Dame has topped the total in four straight showings, including Tuesday’s tournament opener with Wake Forest.
PREDICTION: Over 148.5 (-110)
Notre Dame vs North Carolina betting card
- Notre Dame +6 (-110)
- Over 148.5 (-110)
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