Arkansas vs Memphis Odds, Picks and Predictions: Fast Tempo, Wonky Shooting

We’ve reached the Bad Boy Mowers Battle 4 Atlantis semifinal round as the No. 20 Arkansas Razorbacks face the Memphis Tigers at 5:00 p.m. ET in the Bahamas.

Arkansas needed overtime to sneak past a determined Stanford side 77-74. Meanwhile, Memphis held off a late fourth-quarter charge to escape with a 71-67 victory over Michigan. 

Let's take a closer look at the college basketball odds with my free college basketball picks as I preview Arkansas vs. Memphis on November 23.

Arkansas vs Memphis best odds

Arkansas vs Memphis picks and predictions

Thanksgiving is all about family, friends, and football. Still, we also have a terrific college basketball game between two schools that will provide an exciting alternative to the NFL Thanksgiving Day games. 

The Arkansas Razorbacks and Memphis Tigers play faster-than-average tempos, and each offense shoots the ball long before the shot clock expires. This won’t be a boring game by any stretch of the imagination.

The Razorbacks are coming off a tough shooting night. They aren’t the best shooting team in general, but hitting 30% from the field was well below their season average. They also shot 26% from downtown, a dip from their 34% mark on the young season.

What Arkansas did do well was rebound and play defense. The Razorbacks outworked Stanford on the offensive glass and won the battle of the boards 52-46 with nine steals. Arkansas got aggressive on defense, and guard Tramon Mark went 12-for-15 from the charity stripe and gutted out an old-school win.

Memphis led Michigan by as many as 16 points and probably feels fortunate to escape with a victory. The Tigers shot a scorching 41% from beyond the arc, fueled by nine steals and eight blocked shots, but got destroyed on the boards and had difficulty closing out their victory.

DraftKings has a 153 total, and that’s simply too high.

Both teams play fast enough to exceed this total, but Arkansas doesn’t shoot the ball very well from deep, and putting up a considerable number is challenging without triples. They might make a few more than they did against Stanford, but Memphis does an excellent job chasing shooters off the line, and their shot-altering length on the wings won’t make the Razorbacks' job from downtown any easier.

Memphis shot a slightly above-season average of 41.7% from downtown against Michigan. Reserve forward Ashton Hardaway led a bench that scored 32 points with 17 points, including 5-7 from long range. However, before Wednesday’s outburst, Hardaway hadn’t made a triple and was averaging less than one point per game.

Steals fuel much of what both sides do to score points. That usually works well for them, but both groups do a good job taking care of the ball, and maybe neither side enjoys the same production from turnovers today as they usually do.

Finally, the tempo will be there, but I don’t see the shots falling from downtown as often as they were against Michigan. The Wolverines demonstrated how getting physical can throw the Tigers off, and Arkansas will muddy it up with the Tigers' bigs. I don’t expect Memphis to shoot as well as it did Wednesday from long range, and both groups are below average from the charity stripe. I expect a tough, physical contest and an outcome Under the 153 total. 

My best bet: Under 153 (-110 at DraftKings)

Arkansas vs Memphis same-game parlay

Under 153

Arkansas moneyline

+228 at DraftKings

I love the Under here, and I LOVE Arkansas today. Arkansas is the more physical team, and if the game script is anything like I described in my best bet, Arkansas won’t win this game if it ends Over 153 points.

The Tigers needed a big night from Ashton Hardaway, otherwise, we’re talking about Michigan instead of Memphis. Memphis had a difficult time closing out Wednesday’s contest, and its evident lack of an offensive closer will be its undoing today against a physical Arkansas frontcourt.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Arkansas vs Memphis spread and Over/Under analysis

Neither the moneyline markets nor the spread has moved since the game opened Arkansas -2 (-110). The moneyline on Arkansas (-125) is firmly in play, but I’d leave it alone at -150 or higher and just lay the points at a much better price.

What has bounced around is the total. The Over opened 154 (-110), which dropped twice while I was writing this preview. The number dipped to 153.5 (-110) for a while and now rests at 153 (-110). I wouldn’t play anything Under 152.5, as my model has 152. 

The most important thing you can do is shop for the best number at the best price. Not all sportsbooks have this tilt on the board yet, and when they do, you may find a better number. So shop around.

Finally, I don’t have a lean for this afternoon’s contest, but I am watching the Arkansas moneyline with great interest. -125 isn’t a bad price, but money could come in on Memphis, and we could get a much better one than what's currently offered. 

Arkansas vs Memphis betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in the Razorbacks' last five neutral site games, and the Under is 8-1 in the Tigers' last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas vs. Memphis.

Arkansas vs Memphis game info

Arkansas vs Memphis key injuries

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