Alabama vs LSU Picks and Predictions: Tigers' Defensive Edge Prevails

In what should be a wild game decided in the trenches, the Tigers bring size and aggressive defense that can rattle the Tide. With Xavier Pinson back in action, find out why we're riding with the favorites in our Alabama vs. LSU picks.

Jason Radowitz - Contributor at
Mar 5, 2022 • 08:48 ET • 4 min read
Xavier Pinson LSU Tigers college basketball
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Alabama Crimson Tide will finish out the regular season on the road against the LSU Tigers. Alabama is currently ranked No. 25 in the nation, but after a 16-point loss to Texas A&M last time out, the Crimson Tide will ultimately lose that spot after the weekend. 

Meanwhile, LSU came inches away from beating Arkansas, on the road, losing 77-76. With LSU and Alabama, it’s hard to get much consistency out of them.

Can LSU protect homecourt advantage and notch win number 21? Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Alabama vs. LSU on Saturday, March 5. 

Alabama vs LSU odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Tigers opened as 4.5-point favorites but have dropped to -4 at every outlet but one. The total, however, has moved from 151 at opening to as high as 152.5 at a couple of sportsbooks. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Alabama vs LSU predictions

Predictions made on 3/5/2022 at 7:35 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Alabama vs LSU game info

Location: Pete Maravich Assembly Center, Baton Rouge, LA
Date: Saturday, March 5, 2022
Tip-off: 12:00 p.m. ET

Alabama at LSU betting preview


Alabama: Nimari Burnett G (Out).
LSU: Adam Miller G (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Crimson Tide are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Alabama vs. LSU.

Alabama vs LSU picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

It’s never easy to win a road game in the SEC. Over the week, LSU and Alabama both lost road games. The Crimson Tide looked absolutely horrible while the LSU Tigers probably should’ve beat Arkansas.

This season, LSU has been terrific on the defensive end, holding opponents to a 44.8% effective field goal percentage while earning 25.1% turnovers. Due to the aggressiveness, however, LSU will foul at a high rate and send teams to the line consistently. 

The Tigers also have plenty of bigs on their roster, but still struggle to rebound at a consistent rate on the defensive end, giving up 30.2% offensive rebounds. Still, opponents have shot just 27.7% from three and 47.6% from inside against the Tigers this season.

Alabama hasn’t shot the 3-point ball well at all this season, hitting just 31.3% of looks. Inside, however, Alabama has hit 56.5% of shots. Turnovers can get high, reaching 19.4% per game, however, the Crimson Tide are still averaging 35.1% offensive rebounds. 

On the other hand, LSU can dominate the offensive glass too, earning 34.6%. The Tigers aren’t nearly as good on offense as Alabama, but at home, maybe the offense produces a bit more. The Tigers are shooting 32.3% from deep and 50% from inside the arc. However, LSU will turn the ball over 20.5% of the time this season. 

Luckily, Alabama isn’t a major threat to force turnovers. Plus, the Crimson Tide is even worse on the defensive glass in comparison to LSU. Alabama has also allowed 33% from deep and 49.3% from inside the arc on the season.

I like LSU’s defense to step up in today’s game. The Tigers should also be able to earn more rebounds in this wild game of second chances between both teams.

Prediction: LSU -4 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

In the first meeting between the two teams, LSU lost to Alabama, 70-67. There were only 137 points scored in that game, easily going under the 152 total that we’ve got today. 

LSU only had nine offensive rebounds and didn’t have Xavier Pinson available to run the show in that game. 

Meanwhile, Alabama earned 19 offensive rebounds and shot just 20.6% from three. The rebounds will continue, and you’d expect the threes to get slightly better than that. 

With the potential of so many second-chance opportunities, I agree with line movement and would take the Over. 

Prediction: Over 152 (-110)

Best bet

Pinson has been back in the LSU lineup, and he’s helped get LSU back on track with his play. However, he didn’t play against Alabama in the first game and LSU had 20 turnovers because of it. 

Turnovers will likely stay high, but the reality is, LSU should win that battle in this game. The perimeter defense has been really good, but LSU now needs to limit the second chances. 

I don’t think LSU does all that well on the defensive glass, but do think it has success on its side of the ball on the offensive glass. 

Grab LSU -4. 

Pick: LSU -4 (-110)

College basketball parlays

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Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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