In the final regular-season game of the season, the Kentucky Wildcats will take on the Florida Gators in Gainesville, FL.
Florida is never an easy place to play. It earned a huge upset win against Auburn and has a chance to do the same against the Wildcats.
The Gators didn’t have the greatest of seasons this year, however, they could put together a 20-win season with a victory at home against Kentucky. Florida has won three of its last four after all.
Can Florida be a threat today? Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Kentucky vs. Florida on Saturday, March 5.
Kentucky vs Florida odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Kentucky opened as a 5-point favorite and has stayed at that number at most sportsbooks. Meanwhile, the total has dropped from 143 to as low as 140 at a couple of outlets. However, a 141.5 total seems to be the number on a majority of books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
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Kentucky vs Florida predictions
Predictions made on 3/5/2022 at 7:55 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Kentucky vs Florida game info
• Location: Exactech Arena, Gainsville, FL
• Date: Saturday, March 5, 2022
• Tip-off: 2:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Kentucky at Florida betting preview
Injuries
Kentucky: CJ Fredrick G (Out).
Florida: Anthony Duruji F (Questionable), Jason Jitoboh C (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Wildcats are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kentucky vs. Florida.
Kentucky vs Florida picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Kentucky Wildcats have been an unstoppable offense for most of the year.
Kentucky is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 53.9% while earning 38.3% offensive rebounds this season. The Wildcats also shoot 35.7% from three, 54% from inside, and limit turnovers to 16.7% on the season.
Kentucky won’t get to the line at a high rate but should be able to dominate the offensive glass all day long.
The Florida Gators are allowing opponents to grab 32.9% offensive rebounds. Despite earning 22% turnovers, the second-chance opportunities will likely be endless tonight. Florida has defended well, allowing teams to shoot 32.2% from three and 49.2% from inside. However, again, Kentucky should be able to shoot plenty more attempts from the field in comparison to Florida.
On the other hand, Florida’s only shooting 31.6% from three and 52.9% from inside. The Gators haven’t shot it well from three but continue to shoot the long ball at a rapid rate. Of course, Florida is capable of hitting threes all day long, especially at home, but Kentucky has limited opponents to 30.3% from three and 47% from inside the arc this season.
Florida has also had some success on the offensive glass, earning 31.5% of offensive rebounds. But Kentucky has limited teams to just 24.6% offensive rebounds. Also, although Florida gets to the line at a high rate, the Wildcats have also limited teams from getting to the foul line this season.
Therefore, I’ll stick with Kentucky to cover the five.
Prediction: Kentucky -5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Florida is going to have trouble getting defensive rebounds, but ultimately, the defense has played well other than that. The Gators have limited threes to 32.2% and limited shots inside the arc to 49.2%.
Opponents are also using 18.7 seconds per possession against Florida, who makes you work for buckets. Meanwhile, Kentucky will have success on the defensive glass and should be able to get plenty of stops defending the perimeter.
Kentucky will take Florida’s biggest strengths out of the game on the defensive end. That’s enough for me.
I’ll take the Under here.
Prediction: Under 141.5 (-110)
Best bet
When Kentucky was home, the Wildcats defeated Florida 78-57. The Wildcats got out to a heavy lead and never looked back.
Kentucky earned 18 offensive rebounds while Florida earned just five. The Wildcats also turned the ball over just five times in that game.
Florida, as I talked about earlier, loves to shoot the three. In that first game, Florida shot 5-of-22 from deep. That will hurt them in this game as well.
I’m taking Kentucky -5.
Pick: Kentucky -5 (-110)
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