The Oregon Ducks look to keep their slim NCAA Tournament hopes alive as they head to Pullman to face the Washington State Cougars in a Pac-12 showdown.
Dana Altman’s Ducks dropped 78-67 to Washington last time out, a loss that likely burst Oregon’s bubble. That being said, the webfoots still have an outside shot at making the tournament if they win on Saturday and then make a deep run in the Pac-12 Tournament.
Will the Cougars spoil the fun?
Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Oregon vs. Washington State on Saturday, March 4 to find out.
Oregon vs Washington State odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Washington State opened as a -1.5 favorite, and the line has moved slightly to -2 as of Saturday morning. The total opened at 137 and hasn’t moved since.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Oregon vs Washington State predictions
Predictions made on 3/5/2022 at 9:05 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Oregon vs Washington State game info
• Location: Friel Court at Beasley Coliseum, Pullman, WA
• Date: Saturday, March 5, 2022
• Tip-off: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Oregon at Washington State betting preview
Injuries
Oregon: N’Faly Dante F (Questionable).
Washington State: Tyrell Roberts G (Questionable), Jefferson Koulibaly G (Out), Tony Miller F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as the favorite. Find more NCAA betting trends for [Oregon vs. Washington State.
Oregon vs Washington State picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
If the Oregon Ducks want to make the NCAA Tournament, they may need to be perfect from here on out. Once firmly entrenched in bubble discussions, they suffered a catastrophic 78-67 loss to the Washington Huskies on Thursday. It was a massive letdown that the team probably couldn’t afford, but there may still be a sliver of hope in Eugene.
Oregon has already beaten UCLA twice, a significant resume boost. The Ducks may need to win out to have a chance, but another win over UCLA in the conference tournament, for example, followed by an upset over Arizona—with whom they recently fell to by a narrow three points—would significantly alter the picture. While the likelihood of these events may seem like a longshot, Dana Altman has frequently worked miracles when the calendar turns to March.
The primary flaw has been a leaky defense that ranks 98th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. The usual haul of transfers brought in over the offseason hasn’t quite gelled like in recent years — the Ducks are only 11-18 against the spread on the season. This is still a talented team despite the mediocre analytical profile.
Washington State hasn’t been profitable for bettors either, sitting with an ugly 12-18 record ATS. They’ve been somewhat easy to get a read on for most of the season in that they’re able to defeat inferior opponents but struggle with tougher competition. Admittedly, it’s difficult to place Oregon with either of those two labels, as they’re more middle-of-the-road.
The Cougars are only 4-7 ATS at home vs opponents with a winning record and are 0-6 ATS in their last six as a favorite. Not much gives on the Oregon side at first glance, as the Ducks are 0-3 on the road against teams with a winning record. They have played well as the underdog, however, going 4-0 ATS in their last four games when catching points.
On the surface it appears as though the Cougars have found some life lately, winning three of their last four games. Dig a little deeper, and that seems to fall apart. Those wins came against Oregon State twice (both narrow wins over a woeful team, one in overtime) and Washington (with whom they split 1-1). The Cougars are 0-4 ATS in that span, so we’d hardly refer to that as finding one’s groove.
Oregon doesn’t qualify as the type of elite competition that gives the Cougars trouble. That being said, they’re certainly no pushover and Dana Altman frequently works miracles in March. A miracle won’t be needed on Saturday in a showdown between two evenly-matched teams. This is a must-win for the Ducks, a spot in which they’ve thrived in recent memory.
Prediction: Oregon +2 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Ducks have been besting the total this season, with a record of 16-11-2 to the Over. The Cougars have been the opposite, sitting at 11-18-1 O/U. What gives?
This game should be played at a moderately slow pace. Oregon ranks 164th in KenPom’s tempo metric, while Washington State is down at 259th. This game is being played in Pullman, so we expect the slow tempo to win out and affect this game.
When these teams originally met on Feb. 14, the Ducks won 62-59 in a game that flew under the total by 14.5 points. The Cougars are 13-3 to the Under in their last 16 home games, and we expect that trend to continue Saturday.
Prediction: Under 137 (-110)
Best bet
Betting against Dana Altman in March is a dicey proposition. We won’t be partaking in such hazardous activities.
The Ducks find themselves with their backs against the wall. This is a spot that they have played well in repeatedly, so we’re going to trust the process.
The Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as the underdog, while the Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last six as the favorite.
Pick: Oregon +2 (-110)
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