Basketball nostalgia is a potent drug. I’ve spent hours watching highlights from the past, reminiscing on the glory days of NBA action.
Hoop heads got a strong dose of just that on Wednesday, when the Golden State Warriors erupted for 43 points in the fourth quarter to stun the L.A. Clippers.
Stephen Curry’s 3-point barrage, Draymond Green’s lockdown defense, and the Dubs digging themselves out of a 13-point hole stirred up memories of Golden State’s past postseason dominance and sets up a Play-In Tournament tilt with the Phoenix Suns.
But despite what my retro-heavy sneaker collection would tell you, I’m not buying this throwback.
Our Warriors vs. Suns predictions are being realistic about Golden State’s tough situational spot on Friday, and my NBA picks are siding with an undervalued home team.
Warriors vs Suns prediction
Warriors vs Suns best bet: Suns -3 (-110)
I’m a big fan of situational betting, and after hearing Golden State head coach Steve Kerr, following his team’s comeback in L.A., my “spot betting sense” is tingling.
"For one night, we're us. We're champions again,” Kerr told reporters. “I know that that may sound crazy to everybody out there, but it's a play-in game. I don't care.”
The Warriors’ motivations were already mixed heading into the Play-In Tournament, but after such a wild win and that statement from Kerr, it really feels like the Dubs are ripe for a massive letdown in Phoenix on Friday.
If you can separate from that nostalgic joy for a second, you’ll remember Golden State backed into the postseason with one win in its final eight games. The Warriors were the ninth-worst defense since the All-Star break and finished 4-10 SU in their final 14 road games.
That potential for a faceplant isn’t the only reason I’m fading Golden State. The Warriors will now hit the road for the fourth time in eight days, which is a lot of wear and tear on the aging legs of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Al Horford, and Kristaps Porzingis.
The Phoenix Suns, on the other hand, get to stay home and enjoy an added day of rest and prep. Phoenix is being discounted after running into a red-hot Portland squad in the Play-In and has shown an ability to bounce back from poor performances, going 22-15 SU and 21-16 ATS when coming off a loss.
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Warriors vs Suns same-game parlay
If the Suns are going to get right and put away the Warriors, it will be with defense. Phoenix plays a methodical pace and ranks among the stingier home teams in the league, allowing just 108.5 points against inside Mortgage Matchup Center, and they are 15-27 Over/Under at home this season.
Jalen Green looked great coming back from a knee injury against Portland, exploding for 35 points in the Play-In loss. He’s scored 20+ points in 15 of his last 21 games and is projected for 20 points versus the Warriors on Friday.
Warriors vs Suns SGP
- Suns -3
- Under 220
- Jalen Green Over 18.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Green monsters
These Green guys can pack the box score for both teams. Draymond gets after it on the glass against the Suns’ small-ball lineup while Jalen keeps up his play-in performances with another huge game for Phoenix.
Warriors vs Suns SGP
- Jalen Green Over 18.5 points
- Jalen Green Over 4.5 rebounds
- Draymond Green Over 8.5 points
- Draymond Green Over 5.5 rebounds
Warriors vs Suns odds
- Spread: Warriors +3 | Suns -3
- Moneyline: Warriors +135 | Suns -150
- Over/Under: Over 220 | Under 220
Warriors vs Suns betting trend to know
Favorites of -3 or shorter are 9-4 SU and ATS in the current format of the NBA Play-In Tournament (since 2021). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Suns.
How to watch Warriors vs Suns
| Location | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Friday, April 17, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Warriors vs Suns latest injuries
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