In some alternate NBA timeline, Victor Wembanyama was suspended for his katana-like elbow on Naz Reid. In that dimension, the Western Conference semifinals look very different.
But in our universe, the league isn't holding out one of its biggest superstars for Game 5 between the San Antonio Spurs and Minnesota Timberwolves. San Antonio remains a massive favorite at home tonight with the inside track to the conference finals.
Wembanyama will be on the floor tonight, impacting the game as only he can, and these are my best NBA picks surrounding Victor Wembanyama props for May 12. Be sure to also read our Timberwolves vs. Spurs predictions.
Victor Wembanyama prop pick
Victor Wembanyama best bet: Victor Wembanyama Under 27.5 points (-112 at bet365)
Prior to his Game 4 ejection, Victor Wembanyama was coming off a 39-point explosion in Game 3.
That boosted his scoring total to 26.5 O/U heading into Game 4 and has tonight’s points prop trending up to 27.5 O/U.
Wembanyama’s absence after getting the hook on Sunday was definitely felt on the defensive end, but the San Antonio Spurs managed well without him on offense.
Guards De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper picked up the scoring slack, and that takes pressure off Wemby to shoulder the load as he returns to the lineup.
If there wasn’t already a target on the 7-footer, there’s a glowing red laser dot on him in Game 5. The Minnesota Timberwolves are pissed the NBA didn’t suspend him for an obviously calculated elbow to the neck of beloved forward Naz Reid.
Just how Minnesota treats Wembanyama tonight remains to be seen, but it won’t pull any punches. If this were the NHL playoffs, we’d see the gloves come off the instant the puck dropped.
Wembanyama started Game 4 shooting 2-for-5 from the field, scoring off the dribble and on an alley-oop toss. Outside of Game 3, the T-Wolves have done a solid job on Wembanyama.
Taking out that 13-for-18 outing, he’s shooting just 37.8% in the other four showings, with outputs of 11 and 19 points in the first two games of the series.
Player projections for Game 5 range from 25.1 to 29.2 points from the lanky Frenchman, but most models come in shy of his current scoring total of 27.5 points. My number flirts with 26 points, giving the nod to the Under.
Another thing to consider: Given the sizable spread, San Antonio may pull away in the second half. If the score gets out of hand, it could get chippy.
If I’m Spurs head coach Mitch Johnson, I’m not playing my franchise player any more than I have to and protecting him from garbage time shenanigans.
Victor Wembanyama same-game parlay
Spurs moneyline
Victor Wembanyama Under 27.5 points
Victor Wembanyama Over 12.5 rebounds
San Antonio returns to Texas as 10.5-point home chalk. The Spurs are 12-3 straight up as double-digit home faves this season, as well as 18-5 SU when coming off a loss.
The T-Wolves aren’t going to play nice with Wembanyama after his elbow on Reid, and you can expect the veteran team to needle the youngster in an effort to frustrate and throw him off his game. The bulk of scoring projections come in short of 27.5 points
Wemby will still battle on the boards and with his interior presence pushing Minnesota to the outside — where it’s shot poorly — there will be plenty of rebounding chances for the 7-footer to snap up.
He grabbed 15 boards in each of the first three games and is forecasted for as many as 15+ rebounds tonight.
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