Trail Blazers vs Nuggets Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Points At a Premium in Denver

The Portland Trail Blazers are beginning to pick up steam, entering play on Friday off the back of two straight quality wins. Now, they’ll begin a miniature two-game series on the road against the Denver Nuggets, who have been near-unbeatable at home and on a hot streak of their own.

Let's get right into it as I break down the NBA odds and give you my best free NBA picks for Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets on Friday, February 2.

Trail Blazers vs Nuggets odds

Trail Blazers vs Nuggets predictions

Life is pretty good for the Nuggets, who enter this little series with the Portland Trail Blazers on a run that has seen them win seven games in 10 tries. With that said their performance over this period of time has left much to be desired.

Denver’s seen around a one-point decrease in its defensive efficiency over the 10 games and its offense has fallen off a cliff, ranking 19th in the NBA. The culprit would seem to be a roughly two-point drop-off in 3-point shooting, which has taken them down to 25th in the NBA over that span, but this team can take some solace in the fact that it’s shot a solid 38.6% from 3 at home as opposed to 35.5% on the road.

With all of that said, the Trail Blazers aren’t the cure for teams going through a rut offensively they appear to be on paper. Sure, they’re in the bottom 10 of the NBA in efficiency, but they’ve seen some improvements over the last 10 games and also boast the best 3-point defense around for the entire season.

Denver’s 3-point defense has been abysmal since the start of the new year, but that shouldn’t hurt them much against a team that has struggled to shoot from outside and has favored its frontcourt offense. The rim has been the one area of the floor that the Nuggets have been able to defend well, with that I do think both offenses will be in a spot of bother here.

I like the points with the Trail Blazers, but I love the Under here as a way to fade two struggling offenses entering tough matchups.

My best bet: Under 219 (-110 at FanDuel)

Trail Blazers vs Nuggets same-game parlay

Under 219

Deandre Ayton Under 14.5 points

Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 rebounds

25% boost available

+367  +458 at FanDuel

While this is his first meeting with the Nuggets this year, we have the benefit of looking back on an entire playoff series that Deandre Ayton contested against Denver a season ago while he was with Phoenix.

In those games, not once did he eclipse 14 points. I don’t expect that trend to discontinue here against a Nuggets team that has been one of the best in basketball at defending within four feet of the rim, and even with their struggles defensively over the last few weeks, they’re still 12th in rim defense since the calendar turned to January according to Cleaning the Glass.

So, I think he will have his fair share of struggles getting into the scoring column here even despite a recent run of success in that area. On the flip side, with so many missed shots I love grabbing the Over on Nikola Jokic’s boards.

Sure, the Trail Blazers have been better on the glass in the last 10 games, but the Nuggets – thanks in large part to Jokic – have been downright elite in the rebounding department. He’s gone over 12.5 boards in three of his last four and, against a Trail Blazers team that should struggle defensively, the odds are in his favor here.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Trail Blazers vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis

As I alluded to above, I do have a decently strong lean toward the Trail Blazers in this one when it comes to the spread. They’ve been looking better and better on the defensive end in recent games and should be able to hit the Nuggets where it hurts with their superior 3-point defense.

While I don’t trust their offense quite enough here to favor the spread over the Under, I do think in a low-scoring affair this one should be rather tight throughout. Portland is a palatable 22-22 against the spread as underdogs this season and on the flip side, Denver is just 18-23-2 ATS as favorites this season.

With all of these factors we’ve noted, it’s no surprise that the sharp money here appears to be on the Under. Just 34% of the tickets at DraftKings have come in on the Under, but a stronger 66% of the cash is headed that way. Big bettors seem inclined to lay the points here with Denver, however, considering 51% of the bets and 69% of the money wagered on the spread has gone towards the home team.

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Trail Blazers vs Nuggets betting trend to know

The Portland Trail Blazers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 47 games (+13.20 Units / 26% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets.

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