The NBA officially crosses over into a new era when the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.
These fresh-faced franchises have arrived, with both rosters headlined by the next phase of basketball’s superstars.
I focus on those individual efforts and give my best Timberwolves vs. Thunder props and NBA picks for Tuesday, May 20.
Best Timberwolves vs Thunder props
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Reid o4.5 rebs (-115) -
Holmgren o1.5 3s (+160) - Conley o3.5 asts (-120)
Timberwolves vs Thunder player props for May 20
Naz Reid Over 4.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)
Naz Reid found himself watching more of the Western Conference semifinals the deeper the series got.
The energetic forward opened the Minnesota Timberwolves set with Golden State playing 30-plus minutes in the first two games, but as the Warriors went smaller and mixed up the frontcourt rotations, Reid’s floor time took a hit. He played 25, 24, and 21 minutes in the final three games, and his stats reflected it.
On the season, Reid averaged more than six rebounds on 10.5 rebounding chances per game. That advanced metric has dropped to just below 8.0 chances in the postseason and an average of just 3.6 boards an outing.
Reid gets a fresh matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder, which is a long and athletic team. That should have Minnesota leaning into the fan favorite a lot more, especially in Game 1.
In his four meetings with the Thunder in the regular season, Reid cleaned the glass with reckless abandon, posting eight, 11, 11, and 14 rebounds in those clashes.
His rebound total for Game 1 sits at 4.5 Over/Under — a bar he's topped only three times in the playoffs — but player projections are flirting with six rebounds with projections ranging from 5.0 to 5.8 boards tonight.
I believe the ceiling could be much higher, based off the shift in pace for the T-Wolves against this up-tempo Oklahoma City attack. The Thunder play at a much faster tempo, generating more possessions and more shots, and therefore more rebounding chances.
Even with a conservative number at 5.6 rebounds from Reid, that projection should have the Over 4.5 priced around -170.
Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 3-pointers made (+160 at bet365)
Chet Holmgren’s offensive pop took a backseat against Denver, with the slender 7-footer more concerned about slowing down Nikola Jokic and seeing his minutes go up-and-down with coaching adjustments.
Holmgren can focus more on his offensive output against the Timberwolves, especially when it comes to stretching the floor with his outside shooting touch.
Holmgren can take and make a bunch of 3-pointers, and should he draw T-Wolves’ rim protector Rudy Gobert as a defender, he can play from the perimeter — pulling the shot blocker out of the paint — to open up lanes to the basket.
So far in the playoffs, Holmgren is shooting at a 32% clip from distance, averaging 1.5 makes on 4.8 attempts from outside. His player projections sit right around that postseason average, ranging from 1.4 to 1.6 triples in Game 1.
Minnesota will look to put the clamps on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, so expect the defense to collapse on SGA every time he puts the ball on the ground. Drive-and-kick plays will be very live for Holmgren, who hit three or more 3-pointers in three of the four games with Memphis in Round 1.
Mike Conley Over 3.5 assists (-120 at bet365)
With all these young guns on the court, veteran Mike Conley could be a calming force for the underdog Timberwolves.
With the Thunder defense thriving on chaos, Minnesota needs the steady hands of Conley to control the pace and protect the basketball. He’s been phenomenal at just that in the postseason, with a grand total of only nine turnovers in 10 games.
Conley is also making plays with the ball in his hands. After averaging just 2.6 assists on 4.0 potential assists against the L.A. Lakers in Round 1, he posted five or more assists in the five games versus Golden State, including eight dimes in Game 5 — with that advanced metric spiking to 7.0 potential assists an outing.
As mentioned above, this Western final with OKC will be played at a much faster pace that previous playoff pairings, upping to opportunity for possessions and playmaking. Game 1 models range from 4.0 to 5.8 dimes from the point guard tonight, with my number closer to 5.0 assists.
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