While the San Antonio Spurs are heavy favorites in the NBA championship odds, some particular New York Knicks players are the favorites in the prop categories.
If pondering a bet on the Knicks to spring the upset in the series, such a prop bet may be the safer route to profit, as my Knicks vs. Spurs series props and NBA picks explain.
Knicks vs. Spurs series props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Jalen Brunson |
Most points in series | +145 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns |
Most assists in series | +2000 |
 Victor Wembanyama |
Most rebounds in series | -160 |
| De'Aaron Fox |
Most steals in series | +500 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns |
Most threes made in series | +2800 |
Most points in series
Pick: Jalen Brunson (+145 at bet365)
As will be the case again amid these props, Victor Wembanyama is the favorite, juiced to -180, followed by Jalen Brunson at +145. The next best odds? Karl-Anthony Towns at +4000.
So let’s focus on only Wembanyama and Brunson.
The latter is the better scorer, but he is also facing the better defense. Sure, the New York Knicks may have the better defensive rating in the postseason, but let’s be honest about who they have played. The San Antonio Spurs’ defensive rating was No. 3 in the regular season and No. 4 following the All-Star Break, about two points better per 100 possessions than the Knicks in both subsets.
In the postseason, Brunson has averaged 26.9 points per game, a number actually deflated by New York’s success. In the last 10 games, Brunson has needed to play more than 35 minutes only five times.
Wembanyama has averaged 25.7 points (when ignoring Game 2 of the first round, when a concussion sidelined Wemby after only 12 minutes, and Game 4 of the second round, when he was ejected after only 12 minutes), playing at least 35 minutes in seven of 15 games.
Perhaps that workload concern should be a moot one.
When the Knicks are desperate, Brunson shows up. Looking at genuinely competitive games this postseason, the diminutive point guard has averaged 29.4 points in five games.
He should rise to this moment, and the plus-money payout lends some value to that desperation.
Most assists in series
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns (+2000 at bet365)
Sportsbooks also view this market as a two-horse race. Brunson and Stephon Castle are near equals, priced at +120 and +130, respectively, with De’Aaron Fox then trailing at +550.
This makes sense. Brunson has led New York with 6.6 assists per game in the postseason, while Castle has led San Antonio with 6.7, ahead of Fox at 5.9 assists per game.
There is another name that should garner more attention, though. In fact, this should be the bet.
The Knicks fell behind the Hawks 2-1 to start the postseason. New York then made an offensive shift, turning to Karl-Anthony Towns as more of an offensive fulcrum. Since then, Towns has averaged 6.5 assists per game, while Brunson has averaged 6.7.
Keeping the ball in Towns’ hands on the perimeter will drag Wembanyama away from the rim, creating cutting chances for the other Knicks. There is both a track record in this postseason and a schematic logic to jumping on this long shot.
Most rebounds in series
Pick: Victor Wembanyama (-160 at bet365)
The leaders in this prop are obvious, Wembanyama at -160 or Towns at +130, then followed by Josh Hart at +2000.
Hart leading the NBA Finals in rebounds would be a chaotic delight, but San Antonio’s perimeter players are physical enough to slow down his usual penchant.
Let’s not overthink this prop.
The only way Wembanyama should fall short of this prop is outright fatigue. And even then, he should have a cushion to work with. Removing those two games in which he departed quite early, Wembanyama has averaged 11.7 rebounds this postseason, compared to Towns’s 10.6.
If there is a Western opponent most comparable to the Knicks, it is Towns’ former team. Wembanyama averaged 13.6 rebounds per game against the Timberwolves, Game 4’s ejection aside. Expect something similar from the Frenchman in the NBA Finals.
Most steals in series
Pick: De’Aaron Fox (+500 at bet365)
Finally, a series prop with a number of viable options. Six players come in between +275 and +600, led by three Knicks, and then followed by three Spurs.
If curious, Hart (+350) has led New York with 1.8 steals per game, closely trailed by OG Anunoby (+275) at 1.5. Devin Vassell (+600) has led San Antonio with 1.4 steals per game, closely trailed by De’Aaron Fox (+500) and Julian Champagnie (+4500) at 1.3.
That might quickly suggest a bet on Champagnie would bring value, but the Knicks’ offense should not put the ball in front of him as often as the Timberwolves did. Fault Julius Randle. Champagnie notched 10 of his 24 postseason steals in that second-round win, otherwise averaging 1.2 steals per game.
This is too high a price for someone who should be the on-ball defender against Brunson with great frequency. Fox made his bones early in his career on fast hands and transition buckets. Reviving that reputation against Brunson could be an underrated piece of San Antonio’s championship chase.
Most threes made in series
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns (+2800 at bet365)
Let’s start by tearing down the shortest odds.
Devin Vassell (+250) and Julian Champagnie (+260) have led the Spurs from deep this postseason, hitting 2.3 per game and 2.6, respectively, while each shooting better than 35% from beyond the arc. But now they face the best 3-point defense in the postseason, with the Knicks holding foes to 30.5% from beyond the arc.
Brunson (+350) struggled from deep in the Eastern Conference Finals, hitting just 4 of 22 threes, eventually taking only four and then five in the final two games.
If there is no clear frontrunner, is there a worthwhile longshot? Absolutely.
This fits with the assists thought above. Playing Towns on the perimeter does not lessen New York’s offense. It may, in fact, better it. And that is without even acknowledging it will drag Wembanyama away from the rim.
Towns has shot 48.9% from deep this postseason, but he has taken only 3.2 threes per game. Double that in the NBA Finals to force Wembanyama to worry about the perimeter on every possession.
Even the misses will have a better chance of ending up in Knicks’ possession given Wemby will not be crashing the glass while Hart and Anunboy will be.
This is New York’s best offensive approach, and it is one Towns is entirely capable of.
