The Minnesota Timberwolves will be without their best player tonight, but they still have a chance to push the Houston Rockets toward the Play-In Tournament.
That would mark a steep fall for a team that entered the season with legitimate title aspirations following the arrival of Kevin Durant.
My Timberwolves vs. Rockets predictions recognize the immediate Minnesota value in Anthony Edwards’ absence.
Read more in my NBA picks for Friday, January 16.
Timberwolves vs Rockets prediction
Timberwolves vs Rockets best bet: Jaden McDaniels Over 16.5 points (-105)
Jaden McDaniels scored 14 points in Tuesday’s first quarter at Milwaukee, which is the reason he cashed this same prop by only half a point, adding a second-quarter 3-pointer. The Minnesota Timberwolves were so walloping the Bucks that McDaniels eased up.
He has now cleared this prop in six of eight games without Anthony Edwards in the lineup this season, averaging 19.9 points in those eight games, up from 13.5 points in 31 games alongside the Minnesota superstar.
McDaniels takes 10.1 shots per game with Edwards in the lineup, jumping to 13.75 without the MVP candidate. Maybe even more notable, McDaniels’s field-goal percentage rises to 55.5% in that increased usage, up from 51.0%.
The 25-year-old is a more complete player than given credit for, and that often shows up when the Timberwolves’ best offensive player is on the bench.
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Timberwolves vs Rockets same-game parlay
Doubt Houston Rockets guard Reed Sheppard in all defensive matchups. He logged 19 minutes last night and finished a team-worst minus-10.
Yes, it was a 20-point loss to Oklahoma City, but some of that stemmed from Sheppard’s defensive issues. Minnesota point guard Donte DiVincenzo shouldn’t need much space to score in this matchup.
The McDaniels–DiVincenzo pairing has been a key reason the Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS in their last six games without Anthony Edwards, compared to just 13-17 ATS with Edwards since Nov. 1.
As brilliant as Edwards is, Minnesota often plays with sharper focus in his absence.
Timberwolves vs Rockets SGP
- Jaden McDaniels Over 16.5 points
- Donte DiVincenzo Over 14.5 points
- Timberwolves +4.5
Our "from downtown" SGP: Gobert or Go Home
Prior to Rudy Gobert’s one-game suspension on Tuesday, he had cleared this prop in six straight games. Minnesota's center may be playing the best basketball of his career.
Timberwolves vs Rockets SGP
- Jaden McDaniels Over 16.5 points
- Donte DiVincenzo Over 14.5 points
- Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 rebounds
- Timberwolves moneyline
Timberwolves vs Rockets odds
- Spread: Timberwolves +4.5 (-110) | Rockets -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Timberwolves +150 | Rockets -180
- Over/Under: Over 222 (-110) | Under 222 (-110)
Timberwolves vs Rockets betting trend to know
Houston has lost seven straight games against the spread, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 13.1 points. That includes four outright losses as a favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Rockets.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Rockets
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date | Friday, January 16, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Timberwolves vs Rockets latest injuries
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