The Indiana Pacers remain significant underdogs in the NBA Finals. Sure, they lead the series 2-1. Yes, two of the remaining four games will be home games for Indiana. And no, it was not an outlandish shooting performance that won Game 3, the home team struggling to just 33% from deep.
Yet still, the Oklahoma City Thunder are hefty -230 favorites to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy, according to bet365.
When pondering any Thunder vs. Pacers props for Game 4, that faith in Oklahoma City lingers in the background, even if it is difficult to find NBA picks backing the Thunder. The following three do not, simply enough. Tip comes at 8:30 ET on Friday, June 13.
Best Thunder vs Pacers props
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Haliburton o5.5 rebounds (+105) -
Gilgeous-Alexander u6.5 assists (-110) - Toppin o1.5 threes (+110)
Thunder vs Pacers player props for June 13
Tyrese Haliburton Over 5.5 rebounds (+105 at bet365)
So much for “overrated,” right? That anonymous poll was always more headline fodder than anything genuine, given Tyrese Haliburton was named the most overrated player in the NBA because exactly 13 players said so. That is hardly a number of votes demanding attention.
But all 13 would undoubtedly change their tune by now. Haliburton dictated the terms in that Game 3 win, scoring 22 points on 17 shots despite never getting to the free-throw line, handing out 11 assists, and snagging nine rebounds. The Indiana Pacers' offense is unique and has taken every postseason opponent at least a few games to figure out this spring, but it did not even operate efficiently in Game 3. There may be a better showing coming.
In that case, Haliburton will not need to shoulder the load. If other Pacers can hit their shots — aside from the star, Indiana went 5-of-19 (26.3%) from deep on Wednesday — then Haliburton can increasingly focus on other aspects of the game.
Not that he wasn’t already. Haliburton did, after all, grab nine rebounds. And he found 10 boards in Game 1.
He has averaged 5.9 rebounds per game this postseason and cleared this prop in 10 of 19 games. To get this number still at positive odds is a delightful value.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 6.5 assists (-110 at bet365)
Indiana’s defense has long been underappreciated. Its perimeter defense, in particular, cuts down on opponents’ successes from deep. The Oklahoma City Thunder found some long-range success on Wednesday, hitting 10-of-22 (45.5%), and even then, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander managed only four assists.
If the Thunder are shooting well and the MVP is not connecting with shooters, then how will life go for Oklahoma City’s shooters when regression comes? Because it will come.
Even including Game 3, the Thunder have hit just 34.4% of their 3-pointers this postseason. And the Pacers have held opponents to a wretched 34.3% shooting from deep.
That is where losing Game 3 may have been most costly for Oklahoma City. It wasted a strong shooting performance, and it cannot be confident that another one is coming. The Thunder went 25-of-66 (37.9%) combined in the first two games. SGA fell short of this prop in Game 1 and cleared it with eight assists in Game 2.
His best path toward a Game 4 victory will be dominating the ball. One conversation while writing up these bets included yours truly wondering, “I can’t find a way to back OKC besides ‘SGA goes OFF.’”
That should include a bevy of shots, not of playmaking.
Obi Toppin Over 1.5 threes (+110 at bet365)
This prop cashed with ease in Game 1, Obi Toppin going 5-of-8 from deep. Hitting a pair of threes well before halftime removed any stress for anyone on this play, but largely monitoring the game from a concert beneath an overpass in Brooklyn. Back then, this prop was priced at +220.
And then Toppin went 1-of-8 combined in Games 2 and 3. Suddenly, that +220 payout has been largely lost.
The process remains valid. In fact, it may be more valid than ever.
Consider Game 3. Toppin went 0-of-3 from deep and scored only eight points. He was still a +18 in fewer than 28 minutes, in a game Indiana won by nine. Toppin is going to see only more playing time.
And more playing time will lead to more looks from deep. As long as this prop is available at positive odds, it should be bet.
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Thunder vs Pacers betting resources
- Thunder vs. Pacers prediction
- Thunder vs. Pacers same-game parlay
- Thunder vs. Pacers first basket picks
- Tyrese Haliburton picks
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander picks
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