It all comes down to this: Game 7 between the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder tonight, with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line.
With tip-off set for 8 p.m. ET at Paycom Center and the Thunder listed as 3.5-point favorites, our Covers experts are ready to dish out their best NBA picks for Saturday, May 30.
Spurs vs Thunder Expert Picks Tonight
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Jon Metler:  Spurs ML |
+135 |
 Jason Logan:  Holmgren double-double |
+185 |
 Joe Osborne: Thunder TT o107.5 |
-115 |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
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Jon Metler's expert pick: Spurs moneyline
Price: +135 at bet365
The Oklahoma City Thunder are simply lacking the level of efficient offense needed to win this series right now.
Jalen Williams is still battling a hamstring injury and doesn’t look fully healthy, while Ajay Mitchell could also be limited if he’s able to play. That leaves a heavy burden on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and the matchup hasn’t been easy for him. Stephon Castle has consistently pressured him at the point of attack, and when he does get into the paint, Victor Wembanyama is waiting at the rim.
From a matchup standpoint, I don’t see Oklahoma City having enough answers for what the San Antonio Spurs are doing. The injuries matter, and Chet Holmgren hasn’t provided the offensive impact the Thunder need from him in an expanded role.
I picked San Antonio to win this series in seven games before it started, and my conviction has only grown stronger. With the Spurs trading at +135 on bet365 and my number closer to +110, there’s clear value at the current price.
Jason Logan's expert pick: Chet Holmgren to record a double-double
Price: +185 at bet365
My best bet for Game 7 is the Over on Holmgren's points total, but I also like what I’ve seen from OKC’s 7-footer on the glass in recent games. He’s totaled 22 rebounds on 36 rebounding chances in the past two outings, despite not playing much in the second half of those blowouts.
Holmgren’s been active on the offensive glass too, racking up seven collective offensive boards in those contests. This is the lowest total of the series, with defense expected to be drum tight. That means more misses and ample rebounding chances.
His projections for Game 7 sit as high as 9+ boards and 17+ points. I’ll ask for at least 10 and 10 from Holmgren, who will see more minutes if game script holds up and we get a tight do-or-die contest.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Thunder team total Over 107.5
Price: -115 at bet365
The Thunder have consistently responded well to adversity in this series, scoring 122 and 127 points in their two previous games following a loss.
OKC's offense has also been far more explosive at home, averaging 121.3 points across three contests while posting an effective field-goal percentage nearly eight points higher than on the road.
While Game 7s are often expected to be lower scoring, that narrative is already baked into a total that has fallen seven points from Game 6.
More Spurs vs Thunder Game 7 picks
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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