The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a precarious position heading into Game 4.
The visiting team needs a win over the Indiana Pacers tonight to avoid falling into a 3-1 NBA Finals hole from which only one team has ever emerged.
My Thunder vs. Pacers predictions for Game 4 expect Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to lead his team to victory and reclaim home-court advantage. Read more in my NBA picks for Friday, June 13.
Thunder vs Pacers SGP - June 13
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points
Tyrese Haliburton Over 14.5 assists + rebounds
Under 226.5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a rough night on Wednesday, finishing with just 24 points on 9 of 20 shooting after scoring an historic 72 points across Games 1 and 2. The Indiana Pacers blitzed him with different looks throughout the game, and he only scored three points in the final quarter.
SGA scored 30 or more points in four straight and nine of 10 before Wednesday’s dud, and he’s failed to score 30 points in back-to-back games only once over his last 17. Expect him to get back on track offensively tonight.
After a disappointing performance in Game 2, Tyrese Haliburton came alive in Game 3 with nine rebounds and 11 dimes. He’s cleared 15 assists + rebounds in three of his last four, and he’s reached that mark in six of his last 10.
Over his last 10, Hali has averaged 19.3 assists + rebounds at home and just 13.5 on the road. He’s hit the Over on this line in 11 of 19 playoff games, reaching exactly 14 in two more while averaging 15.3. Expect him to come out aggressively on offense once again, leading to plenty of dimes and boards.
Indiana’s roster is deep, fast and athletic, and the team likes to push the tempo. A slower pace favors the Oklahoma City Thunder, and I expect them to tighten up on defense tonight and slow this one down.
Oklahoma City allowed Indiana to shoot a series-high 51.8% from the field in Game 3, and the Thunder will have a hard time winning Game 4 if they allow that level of efficiency again.
I expect an emphasis on the defensive end tonight, which should limit Indiana’s blistering offensive attack, and I’m not expecting a barrage of points from the visitors either. OKC’s 107.9 offensive rating on the road is 11th among playoff teams.
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