Our NBA player prop projections are set for tonight’s last regular season meetup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets, with the model pinpointing several standout opportunities.
By analyzing the data and comparing it to current market lines, we’ve uncovered the bets with the highest value.
These Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions aren’t guesswork — they’re driven by the numbers.
For those building their cards, here are the model’s top NBA picks for Friday, April 10.
Thunder vs Nuggets computer picks for April 10
 Thunder |
 Nuggets |
|---|---|
| Williams o14.5 points -105 |
Murray u22.5 points -120 |
| McCain o3.5 3-pointers +125 |
Jokic u13.5 rebounds -110 |
| McCain o19.5 points -120 |
Gordon o2.5 assists -130 |
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Thunder computer picks
Kenrich Williams Over 14.5 points (-105)
Projection: 15.1 points
The Oklahoma City Thunder enter this matchup as the league’s second-highest scoring offense over their last 10 games.
They should also benefit from an uptick in pace, drawing the Denver Nuggets, who rank ninth in tempo across the past 25 games.
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Jared McCain Over 3.5 3-pointers (+125)
Projection: 3.7 3-pointers
The Thunder have played as the eighth-most aggressive team from beyond the arc over the past five games, creating a favorable setup for Jared McCain to capitalize from deep.
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Jared McCain Over 19.5 points (-120)
Projection: 20.7 points
McCain is averaging 12.4 points per game across his last 10 road outings (4.3 higher than his overall mark away from home this season) and with an uptick in minutes, he’ll have every chance to elevate his production and rise to the occasion.
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Nuggets computer picks
Jamal Murray Under 22.5 points (-120)
Projection: 21.6 points
The Thunder have operated at the 10th-slowest pace in the league over their last five road games, which should limit overall possessions for the Nuggets and work against Jamal Murray clearing this scoring line, especially after he’s fallen short in five of his last 10 games at a 22.5-point number.
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Nikola Jokic Under 13.5 rebounds (-110)
Projection: 13.2 rebounds
The Nuggets rank as the third-worst offensive rebounding team at home over their last 25 games, putting added pressure on Nikola Jokić to clean up the glass against the Oklahoma City Thunder—but even with that role, he could fall just short of this number after going Under in two of his last 10 games at a 13.5 rebound line.
Aaron Gordon Over 2.5 assists (-130)
Projection: 2.8 assists
The Nuggets have operated at the ninth-fastest pace in the league over their last 25 games, which should create added playmaking opportunities for Aaron Gordon against a different Thunder rotation.
After clearing this 2.5 assists line in six of his last 10 outings, he’s in a strong spot to get Over once again.
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How to watch Thunder vs Nuggets tonight
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Friday, April 10, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN Oklahoma, Altitude |
Not intended for use in MA.
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