The Moda Center will be rocking in Portland on Wednesday night as Damian Lillard makes his return after sitting out last season with an Achilles injury. All I have to say is: don't overthink your NBA moneyline pick in this matchup.
Lillard isn't the only player who will be feeling the energy on Wednesday night, as Tyrese Haliburton will also make his return to Hilton Coliseum, where he suited up for the Iowa State Cyclones in college. Haliburton is fully healthy, straight from the source, and I fully expect the Pacers to bring plenty of energy and pace in this one.
For more betting analysis across the slate, check out our latest NBA picks for Wednesday, Oct. 7.
NBA preseason moneyline picks for Oct. 7
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Timberwolvesvs  Pacers |
45% |
 Sunsvs  Bulls |
56% |
 Magicvs  Grizzlies |
56% |
 Bucksvs  Thunder |
28% |
 Warriorsvs  Trail Blazers |
63% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Expert NBA preseason moneyline predictions for Oct. 7
Timberwolves vs Pacers: Pacers
Let's take note of where this game is being played: Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. If you're not familiar, it's home to the Iowa State Cyclones and where Tyrese Haliburton played his college basketball.
Motivation is key in preseason games, especially in the NBA, and this is a game I expect Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers to care about.
From a basketball perspective, it's also pretty disrespectful to have Indiana trading at just 45%. How quickly we forget that, when healthy, this roster was in the NBA Finals and is arguably even better with Ivica Zubac at center in place of Myles Turner.
Suns vs Bulls: Suns
If you're wondering where the intensity lies with the Phoenix Suns in preseason basketball, Dillon Brooks picked up a technical foul less than five minutes into Monday's first quarter against the Detroit Pistons.
The Suns are a team I'm already keeping a close eye on heading into the season. They're deep, with plenty of shooting coming off the bench from Collin Gillespie and Luke Kennard. That depth, combined with Jordan Ott's coaching, has me hitting the button at 56%, as I price Phoenix closer to 62% to beat the Bulls.
Magic vs Grizzlies: Magic
The Memphis Grizzlies' size had me backing them in their first preseason matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, but that roster construction won't be much of an advantage against the Orlando Magic, especially with Zach Edey listed as questionable.
The Magic can start three players who are 6'10" and capable of moving their feet on the perimeter, particularly Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. That should make it difficult for Memphis to create favorable matchups for rookie Cameron Boozer.
Give me the Magic at 56%, as I think this should be trading closer to 63%.
Bucks vs Thunder: Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks didn't have a great showing in their first preseason game, losing by 19 points to the Minnesota Timberwolves, but it's hard to ignore the depth they'll have available in the second half once the backups take over.
We're talking about Kel'el Ware, AJ Green, Gary Trent Jr., and Kevin Porter Jr. — all players who have played significant NBA minutes or started for the Bucks recently. The Oklahoma City Thunder are clearly the better team, but at 28%, I have to roll with Milwaukee's depth to pull off the upset in the second half once the starters are off the floor.
Warriors vs Trail Blazers: Trail Blazers
The Golden State Warriors are on the second night of a back-to-back and traveling to Portland for this matchup. They don't even want to play veterans such as Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Al Horford in this scheduling spot during the regular season, let alone in a preseason game.
This game will also mark Damian Lillard's return to the Moda Center. At 63%, I don't think you need to overthink this one. Back the team that holds a clear advantage in motivation and energy in this matchup.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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