The Los Angeles Lakers couldn't be more relieved to be back home as they look to shift the momentum in their series against the Oklahoma City Thunder, where our NBA player prop projections have identified several strong value opportunities.
By breaking down the data and comparing it to the latest market lines, we’ve uncovered where the strongest betting edges lie for this pivotal matchup.
These Lakers vs. Thunder predictions are driven by numbers instead of guesswork.
If you’re building your card, here are the model’s top NBA picks for Saturday, May 9.
Thunder vs Lakers computer picks for Game 3
 Thunder |
 Lakers |
|---|---|
| Gilgeous-Alexander o29.5 points -105 |
James 22.5 points -112 |
| Mitchell o3.5 assists -130 |
Smart o3.5 assists -160 |
| Hartenstein o8.5 rebounds -135 |
Kennard o1.5 3-pointers +110 |
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Thunder Game 3 computer picks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 29.5 points (-105)
Projection: 31.18 points
Thankfully, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hasn't had to do too much offensively for the Oklahoma City Thunder to remain dominant over the Los Angeles Lakers.
He's cashed in modest 18 and 22 point performances in this series and with the Lakers fighting hard to save their seasons while at home for Game 3, they may push SGA to give more than the usual lately to get him to clear this points prop line.
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Ajay Mitchell Over 3.5 assists (-130)
Projection: 3.73 assists
Ajay Mitchell has elevated his play during OKC’s dominant playoff run, and he’s made this assists line look easy against L.A. with 4 and 6 dimes in Games 1 and 2.
Expect him to keep thriving in his role as a key facilitator and continue stacking assists in Game 3.
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 8.5 rebounds (-135)
Projection: 9.52 rebounds
Isaiah Hartenstein has been just as impactful on the glass as his teammate Chet Holmgren, and he’s showing no signs of slowing down as the Thunder push toward a potential back-to-back title run.
He’s cleared this rebounds line in four of OKC’s six playoff games, and with a 3-0 series lead within reach, expect Hartenstein to stay active and continue piling up boards.
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Lakers Game 3 computer picks
LeBron James Under 22.5 points (-112)
Projection: 21.78 points
Over the last five home games, opposing starting power forwards have averaged just 11.0 points per game against the Thunder — the third-fewest in the league — making this a tough scoring matchup for LeBron James.
While he’s cleared this points line in both Games 1 and 2, it’s reasonable to expect OKC to tighten up defensively as they push for a commanding 3-0 series lead.
Marcus Smart Over 3.5 assists (-160)
Projection: 3.90 assists
Marcus Smart has been the heart & hustle of the Lakers’ playoff push, and an 0-2 deficit won’t change the energy he brings to the floor. This assists line feels modest given how active he’s been as a facilitator.
He’s recorded 7 and 5 assists through the first two games of the series, and with Game 3 carrying added urgency, expect Smart to elevate his playmaking in an effort to keep the Lakers within reach.
Luke Kennard Over 1.5 3-pointers (+110)
Projection: 1.99 3-pointers
From beyond the arc, the Lakers have been elite, knocking down 40.5% of their threes over the last 10 games — the second-best mark in the league. Still, they’ll need more from Luke Kennard, who has cooled off over the past five playoff outings.
After going 2-for-3 from deep in Game 2, this could be the spark he needs to regain his rhythm and get back to clearing this prop line.
How to watch Thunder vs Lakers Game 3
| Location | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Saturday, May 9, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Not intended for use in MA.
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