- UPDATE: Added a prediction for who will win tonight.
Veteran point guard Marcus Smart served as a finger in the dam for the Los Angeles Lakers when Austin Reaves was out of the lineup.
Now that Reaves is back and rolling, Smart should be taking a step back in terms of his shooting activity. That hasn’t been the case.
Our Thunder vs. Lakers predictions believe that if L.A. is going to climb out of a 0-2 hole versus the Oklahoma City Thunder, it needs less shooting and more playmaking from Smart.
My NBA picks like Smart to top his assist prop in Game 3 on Saturday, May 9.
Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, with the game airing on ABC.
Thunder vs Lakers Game 3 prediction
Who will win Thunder vs Lakers Game 3?
Thunder: At this point, it looks like L.A. is running out of options. Los Angeles has done a great job limiting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but the Thunder are extremely deep and getting great production from the other starters, along with the bench.
When everything is added up over 48 minutes, the Lakers come up short. Oklahoma City has taken L.A.’s best shots and still managed to cover those massive spreads. They’ll stiffen up on defense with the series hitting the road, especially after giving up 52 points in the paint in Game 2.
The Thunder will take a commanding 3-0 series lead tonight.
Thunder vs Lakers best bet: Marcus Smart Over 3.5 assists (-115)
When Austin Reaves was out, Marcus Smart filled that scoring role. And when Reaves returned at the end of Round 1, naturally, Smart’s shots slimmed.
Through two games with the Oklahoma City Thunder, however, Smart is a collective 8-for-28 from the field. He’s not who the Los Angeles Lakers need shooting the ball.
Rather, the Lakers need Smart to set up Reaves, LeBron James, and Rui Hachimura.
Smart has dished out five and seven assists so far and has recorded four or more dimes in six of eight playoff outings. Yet, his assist total for Game 3 sits at 3.5 O/U.
Saturday's projections lean toward four assists from Smart.
COVERS INTEL: Marcus Smart is actually second on the team in touches in Round 2, ahead of LeBron James. He’s generated 12 dimes from 16 potential assists vs. OKC and is averaging 5.6 assists on 9.8 potential assists per game for the playoffs.
Thunder vs Lakers Game 3 same-game parlay
Game 3 will be just the second time the Thunder have been single-digit favorites in the postseason. Despite covering big piles of chalk at home, OKC didn’t look dominant in those wins. Instead, Oklahoma City slowly drifted away from the Lakers.
Los Angeles’ frustrations are starting to boil over, and we’ve seen OKC crush a much stronger version of this L.A. team at times in the regular season. I like them to cover the modest -8.5 in La-La Land on Saturday.
Chet Holmgren is the MVP for this series. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander commanding extra attention from Los Angeles’ defense, Holmgren has stepped up with efforts of 22 and 24 points in the opening two games.
The Lakers don’t have the size or versatility to counter the 7-footer, especially when he steps out and knocks down perimeter shots. Chet is projected for 17+ points in Game 3.
Thunder vs Lakers SGP
- Thunder -8.5
- Marcus Smart Over 3.5 assists
- Chet Holmgren Over 16.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Holmgren, Again and Again
I bet this same SGP in Game 2, and the Thunder’s 7-footer came up a winner, scoring 22 points, grabbing nine rebounds, and blocking two shots in OKC’s one-sided win.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Holmgren is a huge problem for this L.A. interior and is projected for 17+ points, 9.5 rebounds, and two swats in Game 3. Let’s run it back, big fella.
Thunder vs Lakers SGP
- Thunder -8.5
- Chet Holmgren Over 16.5 points
- Chet Holmgren Over 8.5 rebounds
- Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 blocks
Thunder vs Lakers odds for Game 3
- Spread: Thunder -8.5 (-110) | Lakers +8.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Thunder -390 | Lakers +380
- Over/Under: Over 212 (-110) | Under 212 (-110)
Thunder vs Lakers betting trend to know
The Thunder are a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS versus the Lakers this season, including an 8-1 SU/ATS record against L.A. over the past two years. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Lakers.
How to watch Thunder vs Lakers Game 3
| Location | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Saturday, May 9, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Thunder vs Lakers latest injuries
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