It’s a “Battle of Texas” as the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets meet for the third time this season.
Both defenses have been particularly stingy as of late, and my Spurs vs Rockets predictions call for a low-scoring matchup.
Here are my best free NBA picks for this Southwest Division showdown from Toyota Center on Wednesday, January 28.
Spurs vs Rockets prediction
Spurs vs Rockets best bet: Under 220.5 (-110)
On the season, the Houston Rockets have allowed the fourth-fewest points (110.5), and the San Antonio Spurs have allowed the seventh-fewest (112.4).
Over the last 10 outings, both teams have been even better on the defensive end. The Spurs have surrendered the fifth-fewest points (106.7), and the Rockets have given up the 10th-fewest (109.8). They’ve combined to allow just 216.5 points, four fewer than tonight’s line.
The Spurs are 1-9 to the Under across their last 10 games, and the Houston Rockets are 2-8 in that span. The Spurs are 9-14 to the Under on the road and 4-8 to the Under as the road dog. San Antonio is 18-29 to the Under overall.
The Rockets are 7-11-1 to the Under at home and 7-10-1 as the home favorite. Houston is 21-23 O/U overall.
The teams have hit the Under in seven of their last 10 head-to-head matchups, including six of seven in Houston. I’ll take the Under in this clash of top-tier defenses.
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Spurs vs Rockets same-game parlay
Houston sports the best home record in the Association at 16-3, but the Rockets are just 8-11 ATS at Toyota Center. San Antonio is 14-9 straight up on the road and 11-11-1 ATS, including a 7-5 mark ATS as the road underdog.
Amen Thompson has taken a step back in the scoring department, but he's been excellent as a rebounder and facilitator. Across his last five games, he's averaged 15.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 8.4 assists, hitting the Over on this combo line in each contest. He handed out a career-high 14 assists to go with eight rebounds in Monday's win over Memphis.
Spurs vs Rockets SGP
- Under 220.5
- Spurs +2.5
- Amen Thompson Over 13.5 rebounds + assists
Our "from downtown" SGP: Sengun Stands Tall
Alperen Sengun has grabbed 9+ rebounds in 21 of 37 games overall, including 10 of 15 at home. He pulled down 13 and nine rebounds in two matchups with the Spurs, and he should be leaned on more in that department with Steven Adams out indefinitely.
Spurs vs Rockets SGP
- Under 220.5
- Spurs +2.5
- Amen Thompson Over 13.5 rebounds + assists
- Alperen Sengun Over 8.5 rebounds
Spurs vs Rockets odds
- Spread: Spurs +2.5 (-105) | Rockets -2.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Spurs +125 | Rockets -150
- Over/Under: Over 220.5 (-110) | Under 220.5 (-110)
Spurs vs Rockets betting trend to know
The San Antonio Spurs have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 30 away games (+19.95 Units / 37% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Rockets.
How to watch Spurs vs Rockets
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, January 28, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Spurs vs Rockets latest injuries
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