There’s nothing quite like a Game 7 and we’ve got a doozy on the docket this afternoon as the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder tip off with a ticket to the Western Conference Final on the line.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander came up big with 32 points despite an OKC loss in Game 6, and I’ll be looking for him to hit 30+ points again in Game 7.
Here are my best Shai Gilgeous-Alexander props and Nuggets vs Thunder predictions for Sunday, May 18.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander best bet
Over 8.5 2-point field goals made (-125 at bet365)
The Oklahoma City Thunder had a chance to wrap up the series in Game 6 but fell short in a 119-107 loss to the Denver Nuggets. It wasn’t due to a lack of effort from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, though, as the OKC star led all players with 32 points.
SGA has not been at his best from three-point range in this series as he’s shooting under 27% while averaging just 4.3 3-point attempts per game vs. Denver, down from seven attempts per game in the first round and 5.7 in the regular season.
However, the Canadian has done plenty of damage from inside the arc. He went 9-for-12 on 2-point attempts in Game 6 and has enjoyed plenty of success from that range vs the Nuggets.
Gilgeous-Alexander has hit at least nine 2-point field goals in four of six games against Denver and five of his last seven contests overall. With his three-point shooting not quite up to snuff right now, I’m expecting him to rely heavily on his mid-range game this afternoon.
SGA is taking 74.4% of all his field goal attempts from inside the arc this postseason, which is the second-highest rate among all players on Oklahoma City behind center Isaiah Hartenstein (100%). Expect more of the same in Game 7.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander same-game parlay
30+ points
Over 1.5 steals
Over 216.5
While the 3-pointers aren’t there for Gilgeous-Alexander right now, he’s still managed to put up some big numbers against the Nuggets.
SGA is coming off back-to-back 30+ point outings and has hit the mark in six of his last eight games. With OKC’s season on the line, I’m expecting the three-time All-Star to deliver with another high-scoring performance.
Gilgeous-Alexander hasn’t had a ton of help offensively this series, with Jalen Williams being the only other Thunder player to average more than 15 ppg, so SGA will pretty much have no choice but to do it himself this afternoon.
The Thunder superstar has shown up on the defensive side of the ball, too, as he’s averaged 1.3 steals per game this postseason. SGA has snagged two steals in five of his last seven contests, including Games 3, 4, and 5 against Denver.
The Nuggets are also one of just four teams averaging 15+ turnovers per game in these playoffs, which should help his chances.
I’ll close out today’s same-game parlay by taking Over 216.5 points — a number that the Thunder and Nuggets have cleared in five of six meetings so far.
Both teams ranked among the top four in points per game during the regular season, while Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic are combining for nearly 60 ppg on their own.
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