On the brink of elimination, the Denver Nuggets delivered a victory at home on Thursday to extend the Western Conference semifinals and force a Game 7 back at Paycom Center.
The first-round series between these Northwest Division rivals has been a highly entertaining slugfest, and it will come to a head on Sunday afternoon.
My Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions key in on superstars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic as they battle it out in what should be a low-scoring affair in Oklahoma City with a trip to the Western Conference Finals on the line.
Read my NBA picks to see how I’m betting the point total and which two player props I’m targeting.
Who will win Nuggets vs Thunder Game 7?
This one is a toss-up, and given how competitive the series has been thus far, I’d expect the spread to be much closer in favor of the visiting team. Aaron Gordon’s availability certainly figures prominently into the outcome of this game, and the latest update from Shams Charania is that his status is in doubt.
It’s tough to bet against experience and championship pedigree in the playoffs, but there’s something to be said for youth and rest.
The Oklahoma City Thunder were the best regular-season team by a country mile this season, and they got the luxury of resting stars down the stretch before sweeping the outmatched Grizzlies in the first round. The Denver Nuggets have slogged through 13 playoff games, and OKC has a clear advantage in depth, age, and rest.
I’ll take the home team to win a close one and advance to the Western Conference Finals.
Nuggets vs Thunder prediction
My best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 35+ points (+155 at bet365)
Is it finally time for a Shai Gilgeous-Alexander breakout? The NBA scoring champ hasn’t reached 35 points in this series yet, and Game 7 would be a fantastic time to change that.
In 10 matchups with the Oklahoma City Thunder this season, Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 26.2 points across five road games compared to 32.6 across five home games. He reached the 30-point threshold in just one road game against Denver, but he did so in four of five at home, including one 40-point performance.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring has been muted throughout the playoffs overall, with averages of just 28.4 points after averaging 32.7 points per game in the regular season. SGA has scored at least 35 points only once during the current playoff run.
In the current series against the Denver Nuggets, he has taken only 19.8 shots per game, and that number has dropped to 18.6 over the last five games, after averaging 21.8 shots per game during the regular season. With the season on the line, SGA should come out firing and be more aggressive with his shot selection.
SGA scored at least 35 more times than any other player this season, reaching that mark in 26 games. That was seven more than the next guy up on the list. You guessed it - Nikola Jokic with 19.
In a winner-take-all series finale, I’m going all in on superstars, and SGA’s points line can be had for tasty plus-money odds by going up just three points from his 31.5 point line set at -120.
Nuggets vs Thunder same-game parlay
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 35+ points
Nikola Jokic Over 52.5 pts+reb+ast
Under 213
Nikola Jokic averaged exactly 52.5 PRA during the regular season, and he averaged 50.5 in the Western Conference semis against Denver. He’s hit the Over on this line in 41 of 83 games overall, including two of six in this series and four of 10 against the Thunder overall.
Jokic has averaged 45.3 PRA in three home games and 55 PRA in three road games in the semis, and I expect him to stay hot on the road in Game 7. It’s all or nothing for Denver in this one, and Jokic will get a boost in production to sweeten this prop if Aaron Gordon is ultimately ruled out.
Game 6 hit the Over, but Games 3-5 hit the Under, and I expect this one to be a low-scoring affair. In a closeout game, teams can become tense, and scores tend to be lower than usual. This is a low point total, but both defenses should be fully engaged and locked in, leading to a Game Total Under.
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Nuggets vs Thunder odds
Nuggets vs Thunder live odds
Nuggets vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Denver +8.5 (-110) | Oklahoma City -8.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Denver (+280) | Oklahoma City (-360)
- Over/Under: Over 213 (-110) | Under 213 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Nuggets vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Nuggets have covered in seven of 10 matchups with the Thunder this season.
- The Nuggets and Thunder hit the Game Total Under in three of the last four head-to-head matchups.
Nuggets vs Thunder trend
The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 78 games (+19.10 Units / 4% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Thunder.
How to watch Nuggets vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Sunday, 5-18-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Nuggets vs Thunder latest injuries
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