This Sunday is anything but lazy with four NBA Playoff tilts on tap, starting from 1 p.m. ET and rolling into the night.
I focus on personal performances, combing through NBA player props to find out my three favourite NBA picks for April 27.
Best NBA player props today
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Lillard o6.5 asts (-115) -
James o5.5 asts (-105) -
Brunson u30.5 pts (-120)
NBA player props for April 27
Damian Lillard Over 6.5 assists (-115 at bet365)
Damian Lillard’s return to action was supposed to swing this series for the Milwaukee Bucks. But, through two games, the star guard is a collective 6-for-25 from the field, including a 3-for-16 count from beyond the arc.
Lillard has put forth scoring outputs of 14 and seven points, and while he’s shaking off the rust of missing about a month (deep vein thrombosis), the Indiana Pacers have had a solid game plan for Lillard. They’ve been aggressive with pressure and doubles on defense, and also made him work extra on the other end of the floor by targeting Lillard with their attack.
He’s still able to impact the game with his playmaking, recording seven and five assists in his first two games back while averaging 10 potential assists in those contests. On the season, Lillard was dishing out just over seven dimes on 13 potential assists per game.
His player forecast for today all sits north of the 6.5-assist total in the player prop markets, with some models as high as 7.5 dimes. My number sits at 7.3 assists, and there’s potential for more considering the pace of this series and Milwaukee’s shooting success inside Fiserv Forum (third best at home in the NBA).
LeBron James Over 5.5 assists (-105 at bet365)
With Luka Doncic under the weather and the rest of the L.A. Lakers struggling to score in this series, LeBron James took it upon himself to carry the offensive load in Game 3.
James did just that, putting up 38 points, but he registered only four assists.
It wasn’t enough for Los Angeles, which is looking at a 3-1 hole if it can’t get right against the Minnesota Timberwolves this afternoon. The Lakers need a team effort to even this series, and LeBron needs to be a playmaker like he was in the Game 2 victory.
James finished with seven assists in that outing, and we’ve routinely seen him be more of a facilitator in the postseason throughout the back half of his career. He’s averaged more than eight assists during the playoffs in his time as a Laker, but his recent passing prowess has his assist prop down to 5.5 O/U for Game 4.
Player projections are very bullish on James’ assists today, with models ranging from 6.8 to 8.1. My forecast calls for 7.4 assists, and with Doncic feeling better and Austin Reaves heating up, LeBron’s set-ups won’t go wasted.
Before the playoffs, James had recorded six or more dimes in 12 of his final 16 games of the regular season.
Jalen Brunson Under 30.5 points (-120 at bet365)
After three straight 30+ point efforts, the “Brunson Buyback” has begun. At least for me, it has…
At the start of this series, Jalen Brunson’s scoring totals were at 27.5 points, but after those explosive showings, this market swelled to 30.5 O/U for Game 4. It’s a scary bet to take the Under on, but Brunson can still have an outstanding effort and come in short of 31 points.
Player models peak at 27.7 points, but the majority of those projections are much shorter and well below the 30.5-point number. My number comes out just shy of 26, which should have the Under 30.5 priced at -270 rather than -120.
A couple of things have me balking at Brunson’s points in Game 4.
For one, the officials were under the microscope in Game 3 after a lopsided foul shot tally in Game 2 (New York shot just 19 FTAs to 34 from Detroit). Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau blasted the refs for the discrepancy, and New York was getting the benefit of the doubt on calls Thursday. Brunson has earned 28 points from the stripe in this series, including shooting 11 of 13 FTAs in Game 3.
Secondly, he’s not shot well from distance in this series. Brunson was 1-for-7 from deep in Game 3 and is hitting at just 29% through the first three games.
The Pistons need to adjust their defence against the Knicks’ heavy pick-and-roll sets, opting to push Brunson back beyond the arc rather than letting him get downhill and attack the rim.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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