Following a 12-game marathon yesterday, there are just two on the schedule for Thursday, October 20. After a discouraging opening night loss to the Boston Celtics the Philadelphia 76ers are faced with another tough matchup against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks.
The TNT nightcap is the “Battle of L.A.”, with all eyes on Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers, penned by many as Finals favorites, as they face off with an already-reeling Los Angeles Lakers squad.
With two great games on the docket, we’ve surveyed the books for the three best NBA player prop picks on the board.
NBA player props for October 20
- Antetokounmpo Over 37.5 points and assists
- Harden Over 22.5 points
- A. Davis Under 0.5 3-pointers made
Picks made on 10/20/2022 at 2:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Freak-a-leak
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best player in the NBA. Full stop. But that doesn’t mean he’s about to start regressing. The terrifying part is that at 27 years old, he’s just entering his prime.
And despite the ignorant criticisms that Giannis is somehow “unskilled”, he’s added new elements to his scoring package every offseason. Crafty step-throughs in the paint, improved finishes, and short turnaround jumpers in the post have headlined developments in recent years. His growth as a playmaker from season to season speaks for itself.
But the reason I think this line is underestimating Giannis’ potential production is little to with the “Freak” himself at all. It’s twofold. For one thing, the 76ers’ transition defense was an embarrassment against the Boston Celtics, with both James Harden and Joel Embiid worthy of blame.
The other reason is potentially even more impactful, and that’s due to changes to the NBA rulebook. The NBA competition committee is attempting to legislate the so-called take foul out of the game this season. Now fouling a player in order to prevent a fastbreak (assuming it doesn’t meet clear path foul criteria) results in one shot and the ball. We’ve already seen through preseason and yesterday’s action that defense-to-offense teams that run the ball will be the outsize beneficiaries of this change. None more so than Giannis and the Bucks.
Giannis led all scorers tonight.
— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) October 13, 2022
24 PTS | 14 REB | 4 AST | 3 STL pic.twitter.com/itbuQN8eHL
The Bucks were sixth in overall transition attempts last season and were a fraction of a percentage point from being Top 3. But they didn’t capitalize on these attempts at a particularly high level — something that should change with defenses no longer able to cut the possession short with a foul.
Giannis is the most dominant transition player in the NBA. If opposing defenses can’t reliably short-circuit his rampages before they begin, they’ll have to be ultra-disciplined in walling off the paint while simultaneously covering the corners to prevent the kick to an open Grayson Allen, Jrue Holiday, or Bobby Portis. I have zero faith that the 76ers will prove up to the task on either count, which means Giannis should be set for a productive night Thursday.
Giannis Antetokounmpo prop pick: Over 37.5 points and assists (+100)
Big Game James
The 76ers couldn’t overcome the Boston Celtics on opening night, but there was at least one positive takeaway. After looking like a shell of himself at times last season, James Harden scored 35 points on 9-14 from the field. The critical part is that he did it by tapping into all aspects of his game: shooting threes, attacking the paint, and generating boatloads of fouls.
Free throws were the foundation. While many noticed an early drop in Harden’s free throw attempts with last year’s rule changes, Harden adjusted and, after the trade to Philadelphia, posted a career-high free throw rate. He had 12 against Boston on Tuesday.
Perhaps the most encouraging part was that Harden was blowing past some opponents and turning the corner, torturing the Celtic bigs on switches. He’s clearly as strong as ever and was finishing through contact and bumping much bigger opponents off their spots to get to his. His burst might not be at peak levels, but at least early in the season, he proved he could score almost at will against the league’s premier defense.
Harden at the half: 22 PTS | 3 REB | 4 AST pic.twitter.com/PLJycZewgb
— Philadelphia 76ers (@sixers) October 19, 2022
This bet is also about matchups. With Khris Middleton out, and Wes Mathews and Pat Connaughton questionable, Jrue Holiday will be Milwaukee’s only credible choice to defend Harden. Holiday excels with anticipation, strength, and quick hands more than speed.
But Grayson Allen and Jevon Carter are not starting-caliber defenders, and neither are trained to deal with Harden’s All-World foul-baiting routines. The Sixers should have little trouble getting Harden into advantage situations that allow him efficient scoring opportunities.
Harden also showed a willingness to step into midrange jumpers on Tuesday, a shot that Milwaukee will willingly concede as it defaults to a conservative drop defense. Not needing to get all the way to the rim only opens Harden’s game up even more.
James Harden prop Pick: Over 22.5 points (-110)
Brow crops it close
Anthony Davis has taken a lot of heat the last few years — some of it deserved, as his quality of play has waned while he’s continued to struggle to stay on the court. Davis is still a two-way force on the right night, but something that might well and truly be gone for good is his outside jumper. Davis has never been a volume 3-point shooter, but in recent years he’s seen his outside shooting wither away to nothing. In 2019-20, he averaged a career-high 3.5 3-point attempts per game, followed by 2.8 in 2020-21, and down to just 1.8 this past season.
All the while, his raw percentage from outside has been precipitously dropping (down to a grisly 18.6% last year). Indeed, it’s not just the outside shot that seems to be failing Davis, it’s jumpers writ large. Per Kirk Goldsberry, Davis has been the least efficient jump shooter in the entire NBA over the past two seasons.
Anthony Davis is the least efficient jump shooter in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons.
— Kirk Goldsberry (@kirkgoldsberry) October 19, 2022
Among 178 players that have attempted at least 500 jump shots since the beginning of the 2020-21 season, Davis has logged the lowest eFG% on those shots at 35.99 - no other player is below 40 pic.twitter.com/Ug4DD5QQiB
Yes, he took three in the opener against Golden State, but he missed them all. And outside of his jumper, he found great success attacking the rim and drawing fouls. Against a Clippers team that lives to play small, I’m expecting Davis to trim the fat and do what he does best and limit his attempts from deep on Thursday.
Anthony Davis prop pick: Under 0.5 3-pointers made (+105)
