If you're a regular reader of our daily NBA prop picks (yes, we do this every single day), you've been seeing a lot of Jaren Jackson Jr. lately, and with good reason — he's been playing some very solid basketball.
While it may seem unoriginal, the books are again laying us action on JJJ that we can't turn down. So, in the interest of our bankrolls, let's go back to the Well of Triple-J with our NBA player prop picks for Saturday, December 19.
NBA player props for December 19
- Vanderbilt Over 2.5 blocks + steals (+135)
- Jackson Over 18.5 points (-105)
- Johnson Under 1.5 assists (+100)
Picks made on 12/19/2021 at 10:25 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
Bilt for defense
Jarred Vanderbilt probably isn't a household name for most NBA fans. After all, he's a second-round draft pick (2018) who's spent the vast majority of his career wasting away in Minnesota.
But this season, Vanderbilt's been a revelation for the Timberwolves, and a key contributor to their suddenly Top-10 defense. As a result, his minutes have skyrocketed, particularly this month where he's averaging 30.8 (vs. 23.5 in November and 17.8 last season).
Vanderbilt's making the most of those minutes defensively, with a steal in each of his last seven games, and three thefts in four of his last five. To boot, Vanderbilt is averaging close to a block a game, and his "stocks" numbers are trending up slightly this month.
He faces the Mavs tonight, who are very stingy with turnovers, but combining the blocks and steals markets (2.5 O/U) helps hedge the potential for fewer thefts at almost-neutral EV given his averages.
Remember, Vandy's cleared this total with steals alone in four of his last five. And we're getting a great +135 price on the prop, which sells us.
Pick: Jarred Vanderbilt Over 2.5 blocks + steals (+135 at bet365)
Jaren's tear
The Memphis Grizzlies lost their budding-superstar PG and responded by morphing into the NBA's hottest team, winning 10 of their past 11 and leading the league in net margin over that span.
The Grizzlies have been getting contributions from all angles in their score-by-committee approach, and there are several viable players to target for points Overs tonight against the Portland Trail Blazers — the NBA's third-worst defensive team.
For our money, we'll take Jaren Jackson Jr. and his O/U 18.5. Trip has been flashing a consistent off-the-bounce game and increased primacy over the past month or so. His scoring has shot up as a result: Jackson's netted 20+ in four of his past five games. He's accomplished this despite going ice-cold from long range (5-28 in that span), suggesting even more upside.
His lone non-20 game in that stretch was against Portland, which sure as hell wasn't because of good defense. We're treating that game like the aberration it was and expecting Jackson to bounce back in a soft matchup against a very reasonable total.
Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 18.5 points (-105 at Caesars)
Spurning Spurs
Keldon Johnson does a good number of things well on a basketball court, but setting up teammates hasn't necessarily been one of them lately. Johnson's recorded multiple assists in just two of eight games this month.
Of course, San Antonio doesn't need him to do that much in the playmaking department, effectively starting two point guards in Dejounte Murray and Derrick White. Thus, Johnson's been able to just put his head down and focus on scoring, and his output there is trending upwards.
Johnson's more liable to focus on attacking a weak Kings defense tonight than making "the extra pass", making it less likely for him to reverse this anti-assist trend. There's also the potential for Sacramento to completely roll over and die on any given night, meaning Johnson could see limited minutes here.
Getting the Under at even odds, we can't say no.
Pick: Keldon Johnson Under 1.5 assists (+100 at bet365)
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