Reigning MVP Nikola Jokic will lead the Denver Nuggets into Crypto.com Arena to take on LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers Sunday night.
Pegged by many as inner-circle title contenders, the Nuggets are looking for more consistency after an uneven 4-2 start.
The Lakers, who are currently the only winless team in basketball, will both be looking to avenge a road loss to Denver from Wednesday as well as to notch their first win of the season.
For Sunday’s NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets vs. Lakers, we cast a keen eye on the shooting of Michael Porter Jr. and his unique player archetype.
Nuggets vs Lakers best odds
Nuggets vs Lakers picks and predictions
The Nuggets could win the title this year, provided both Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. can bring star-level productions alongside Nikola Jokic. At least in Porter’s case, they’re off to a good start.
Porter is a fascinating player because he really doesn’t fit into any of the typical boxes. His shot chart is almost exclusively above-the-break threes, of those shots, almost all are assisted.
A normal star player who works on the perimeter is typically defined by their ability to generate their own offense, but not always. That’s why Michael Porter Jr. has drawn comparisons to the Golden State Warriors' Klay Thompson.
Both are All-World caliber shooters but largely need the table set for them to be effective, but as long as you get the silverware out, Porter is going to feast.
MPJ is shooting a blistering 54.1% from deep so far this year on a career-high 7.4 attempts per game and it's no fluke. He’s a career 42.7% shooter on a high volume.
He’s never going to be a guy you want dribbling the air out of the ball, but he’s an unconventional and all-time great play-finisher, just like Klay. He’s the perfect offensive compliment to the NBA’s most devastating passer in Nikola Jokic.
And he’s a nightmare matchup for an otherwise solid Lakers defense. The Lakers' defense has actually been good-to-great at taking away easy shots at the rim and from the corners from their opponents, but that really doesn’t impact MPJ that much.
He’s never met a shot he doesn’t like and his size and release point make even contested threes into quality attempts.
The Lakers allow among the most above-the-break threes of any team per Cleaning the Glass, which are MPJ’s first, second, and last preference for any given shot attempt.
They’re also lacking in credible wing depth. At 6-foot-10, L.A. will struggle to even get a hand in Porter’s face to contest on most possessions.
My best bet: Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 made threes (-135 at DraftKings)
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Nuggets vs Lakers spread analysis
This slight spread — Denver -4 — seems to reflect an unwarranted optimism in the Los Angeles Lakers. A home team usually gets between two and three points as an edge in the NBA just for playing in their own barn, which suggests that the difference in team quality between the Lakers and the Nuggets is a point or less.
With no major rest advantage for either team, it’s a bit of a puzzling line, particularly given the uncertainty around Anthony Davis’ return.
Even though he seems unable to hit a jump shot outside the paint anymore, Davis has arguably been the Lakers' best player on both ends to start the season. If he sits, this is likely a blowout.
These two teams played on Wednesday, with the Nuggets coming out ahead 110-99, and I see no reason for any likely difference in the outcome. Russell Westbrook missed that game, but in their current alignment, it’s hard to give the Lakers many benefits of the doubt for that.
The Lakers' offense simply cannot score. Despite being one of the league’s top defenses, their league-worst offense drags them to the 28th overall net rating. Their 96.4 offensive rating is six whole points worse than the second-worst team. They are a historically bad shooting team.
The Nuggets have been inconsistent as they work MPJ and Jamal Murray back into the lineup along with newcomers Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, but they are miles better than this Lakers group.
Nuggets vs Lakers Over/Under analysis
At 220.5, NBA odds are expecting this to be a more or less average offensive outing for an NBA game, but I’m not so confident. The total for the previous game was 209, and I’d expect a similar result tonight.
It hasn’t gotten much attention due to their woeful record and record-setting bad shooting, but the Los Angeles Lakers' defense has actually been outstanding to begin the season.
They currently rank third overall per Cleaning the Glass and they’re Top 10 in defensive rebounding rate, opponent effective field goal percentage, opponent corner threes, and opponent shots at the rim.
That’s the foundation for a championship-level team if you can produce a non-embarrassing offense but the Lakers haven’t yet cleared that mark. That’s partly why the Under is 4-0 in the Lakers' last four games. If and until they do so, I’ll strongly consider taking their Under.
The Nuggets were projected in preseason as one of the league’s best offenses and right now they have a respectable but not spectacular 116.5 offensive rating. They have less continuity than some of the truly elite teams, so they’re likely to grow offensively over the course of the year.
If this line goes over tonight it will be because MPJ stays hot and Jokic shows the same scoring aggression he was forced to last season amongst all the roster chaos.
Nuggets vs Lakers betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in the Lakers' last four games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Lakers.
Nuggets vs Lakers game info
| Location: | Crpyo.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, October 30, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
NBA TV, Altitude, Sportsnet |
