The Los Angeles Clippers are in a freefall. The latest blow is the news that Kawhi Leonard is now missing games due to eyebrow-raising knee soreness, but listless play has followed the team like a shadow for weeks now.
On Thursday, April 4, they face off against their old foes, the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have been without lead guard Jamal Murray for six straight games but have been staying in the fight for the top seed in the West regardless.
My NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets vs. Clippers believe the NBA odds are being far too kind to Los Angeles given their recent track record.
Nuggets vs Clippers predictions
My best bet: Nuggets -3 (-110 at bet365)
It feels like a different season now than when the Los Angeles Clippers looked like one of the best teams in the Western Conference. They had all three of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and James Harden playing at a high level. Norman Powell was making a strong push in the Sixth Man of the Year odds, Ivica Zubac was unlocked playing next to Harden, and Russell Westbrook was providing energy and rebounding off the bench.
For a time, they looked like the most likely team to challenge the Denver Nuggets in the race to win the West. No more.
Now Leonard is absent with soreness in his surgically repaired right knee, Harden has struggled on both sides of the ball, and none of the Clippers centers are defending at a starter level. Even George, the lone bright spot, is maddeningly inconsistent and unwilling or unable to perform as a lead dog night in and night out.
While their offense has sustained somewhat, their defense has gone from stifling to inert. Since the beginning of March Los Angeles has the fourth-worst defense in the NBA.
They’re getting killed against the spread as well. In March only the actively tanking (and current owners of a 15-game losing streak) Toronto Raptors have underperformed the spread by more.
And It’s only getting worse. While they’ve managed to win three of their last seven games, L.A. has a -10 spread differential in that time per Cleaning the Glass. They are not just losing, they are getting the breaks beat off them by the likes of the Sacramento Kings and Indiana Pacers, themselves far from world beaters in recent weeks.
The Nuggets have not been flawless, but their problems do not compare to the Clippers’. If they have an issue, it is primarily the tedium of regular season play following a championship. As there is yet still so much to be decided about the Top 3 seeds in the West, the Nuggets are likely to bring focus down the stretch.
The Clippers, even at their best have never had an answer for Nikola Jokic, this version is liable to be eaten alive inside by him even if Murray isn’t able to give it a go. Defending Jokic takes commitment and connectivity, and those are in short supply in L.A. at the moment.
Even with somewhat of an uneven stretch of their own, the Nuggets have a +8.6 point differential in their last seven games. In that same stretch, the Clippers have a worse point differential than any other playoff team save the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are similarly struggling. L.A. is also 2-8 against the spread in its last 10 games.
Without Kawhi on hand to steady the ship, I have a hard time seeing a path to victory (or even a competitive game) for a team that Denver has owned in the Jokic era.
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Nuggets vs Clippers same-game parlay
Nuggets -3.5
Aaron Gordon Over 14.5 points
Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 rebounds
While Clippers opponents have been splashing threes during this losing jag they’ve been on, that has been far from the only issue. When Tyronn Lue claimed that his team was “soft” he was basing it on plenty of direct evidence.
Since March the Clippers have been one of the league’s worst defensive rebounding teams, and their lack of physical play has seen them get routinely bullied inside the arc as well.
Some of this stems from their largely futile attempts to play small ball, but much of it seems to be effort. That's only going to get worse however long Kawhi is out. Not only would Leonard have been the best defensive matchup for Aaron Gordon on Thursday, but he’s also typically one of the Clippers' better rebounders for his position.
I’m backing plays on Gordon and Jokic based on the Leonard shaped hole in L.A.’s lineup on Thursday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Nuggets vs Clippers odds and trends
Nuggets vs Clippers live odds
Nuggets vs Clippers opening odds
- Spread: Denver -3 (-110) | Los Angeles +3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Denver -150 | Los Angeles +125
- Over/Under: Over 218 (-110) | Under 218 (-110)
Nuggets vs Clippers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Nuggets opened as 1.5-point favorites against the Clippers, which has since risen as high as -3.5.
- Denver is 22-15 on the road overall, while the Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The total opened as high as 223.5, but most books are offering it between 217.5 and 218.5.
- The Under is 23-14 in Nuggets road games.
Nuggets vs Clippers trend
The Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Clippers.
Nuggets vs Clippers game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, April 4, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT, truTV |
Not intended for use in MA.
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