Nets vs Celtics Picks and Predictions: Boston Keeps a Lid on Kyrie

It may not officially be NBA Rivals Week anymore, but there’s no denying the developing animosity between the Brooklyn Nets and the Boston Celtics. 

The Celtics have been the NBA’s best team this season but haven’t been playing to their exceptional standard of late. The Nets, meanwhile, continue to rally around Kyrie Irving in the absence of Kevin Durant, and will look to avenge a loss to Boston from just over two weeks ago. 

Having squared off in two consecutive playoff series, and with a third far from unlikely, both teams will be highly motivated to win on Wednesday, February 1.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Nets vs. Celtics believe that Boston will be able to put a damper on Irving’s recent hot stretch.

Nets vs Celtics best odds

Nets vs Celtics picks and predictions

Kyrie Irving has been on a heater recently for the Nets. The recently announced 2023 All-Star starter is up to 33.2 points per game over his last five, doing an admirable job of stepping into the oversized shoes of Kevin Durant, who remains out with a knee injury. But Boston has proven something like kryptonite for the former Duke guard in recent years, and that’s a big part of the reason I’m shorting his points prop tonight.

The Celtics have been slipping a bit recently, but not on defense. They’re Top 5 in defensive rating for the season, and have played at a better level than that over their last six games, per Cleaning the Glass.

Ironically, despite his being the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, the Celtics clearly miss Marcus Smart more on offense than defense. His defense is somewhat replicable by a combination of Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon, both of whom provide a combination of size, good hands, and the ability to slide that will make Irving work for every bucket.

Boston’s defensive shot profile is also second to none. They manage to marry the second stingiest rim defense in the NBA with the seventh-lowest opponent 3-point rate, per Cleaning the Glass. Even Kyrie – a true three-level scorer – has struggled against the Celtics when denied his usual shot diet. 

In addition to forcing opponents into taking the least valuable shots overall, Boston also has a bevy of wings and bigger guards who grind on opposing stars. Their 4-0 sweep of the Nets in last season’s playoffs was the first time I ever saw Durant wilt under that kind of physicality.

In his last six regular season games against the Celtics, Irving has averaged 25.5 points. In nine playoff games, he’s averaging just 23.2. In three of the four games he played against the Celtics in the 2022 playoffs, he scored 20 or fewer points. In most of those games, he wasn’t even the primary defensive concern, which he will be tonight with Durant’s absence. 

Another factor is that Irving has begun trusting his teammates more, and they’ve rewarded him by knocking down umpteen 3s in the last several games. He’s up to eight assists per game in his last five, and it’s quite possible that he’ll respond to elevated Celtics ball pressure by dishing more.

Irving scored just 24 points on 9-of-24 shooting from the field when these two teams last played on January 12. I’m banking on a similar outcome tonight.

My best bet: Kyrie Irving Under 30.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)

Nets vs Celtics spread analysis

These teams last played on January 12, but their fortunes have shifted dramatically in that short time. The Nets have done better than expected without Durant in the lineup, and have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games. They’re also a team that plays only as hard as their competition demands. 

They drop the occasional game against a bottom-feeding team, but rarely no-show in a marquee matchup like this one. That’s added up to an impressive 10-2 record ATS in their previous 12 road games against teams with a home winning percentage higher than .600. They’re giant killers, and this season, Boston is Goliath.

The Celtics have hit their second in-season slump. They’re still narrowly hanging onto the No. 1 overall seed, but they’ve dropped three of four and are 0-6 ATS in their last six, and even more troublingly, 1-5 ATS in their last six at home.

The Nets are getting as many as 8.5 points at some books, I favor them to keep it within that margin.

Nets vs Celtics Over/Under analysis

This total has been dropping like a stone, opening at 230.5 and falling down to 226.5 at the time of this writing. To me, that level of movement suggests optimism around the status of Robert Williams III. Williams is officially questionable, and whether he plays or not is the key factor in determining if this total goes Over or Under.

Williams is such an important piece of the Celtics’ defense that his presence alone can swing a line like this. While he’s currently questionable, the critical consideration is that “Time Lord” isn’t questionable due to knee injury management, but rather an ankle sprain. 

While I highly doubt Boston would exercise anything but extreme caution with Williams if his knee were troubling him, a minor ankle sprain that has had him day-to-day is another matter. If anything, Williams’ status being up in the air is just as likely gamesmanship from head coach Joe Mazzulla, who wants to create an atmosphere of uncertainty for Jacque Vaughn as he designs his game plan. 

Given the Celtics’ recent skid, I’m guessing Williams plays. That would strongly portend the Under. The Celtics tend to play lower-scoring games against the best teams as it is, with the Under going 4-1 against winning teams over their last five.

Nets vs Celtics betting trend to know

Celtics are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Nets vs. Celtics.

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