NBA Picks

The New York Knicks are trading as -115 favorites on the moneyline for Friday’s matchup between two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference, and at that price, I’m backing the Knicks. I believe they should be closer to a -130 favorite. There’s a lot to monitor on the injury report, with multiple players carrying questionable tags on both sides. The most concerning status is Jalen Duren, who exited Thursday’s game against the Wizards and did not return for the second half. He feels much closer to doubtful than questionable. Karl-Anthony Towns is also listed as questionable with an eye laceration, but he returned after the injury in his last game and shot the ball well. With the Pistons playing on the second night of a back-to-back and Duren’s availability very much in doubt, give me the Knicks on the moneyline.

This game features two teams in the Top 8 in scoring. The Pistons will also be playing the second half of a back-to-back, and they have gone Over in six of the eight games they’ve played on no rest this season, the best Over success rate in the NBA.

Miami plays at the fastest pace in the league, while Boston plays at the slowest. Trust the Celtics to set the terms tonight.

There’s only a small edge on the Celtics here, as I price them closer to a -275 favorite over the Heat, but it’s still an edge worth attacking with the market offering -240. Jaylen Brown has been cleared to play, and Nikola Vucevic is set to make his Celtics debut. Vucevic’s presence only amplifies a key matchup advantage Boston already holds: the ability to pull Bam Adebayo away from the rim and neutralize his impact as an elite roaming help defender. The Celtics’ five-out “Mazzulla Ball” offense already stresses Miami’s defensive structure, but inserting Vucevic at the five makes those coverages even harder to execute and exposes the Heat further on the back line.

Jaden McDaniels has hit multiple 3-pointers in five of his last six games and in seven of his last nine, all while shooting 23-of-39 from deep, an absurd 59.0% from beyond the arc.

The Minnesota Timberwolves took a big swing at the trade deadline by pursuing Giannis Antetokounmpo, but ultimately came up empty-handed. It’s fair to wonder whether all the trade rumors impacted team chemistry, especially for a group that has been together for a while. The bigger question, though, is whether the New Orleans Pelicans are capable of taking advantage of any lingering distraction or negative energy. The answer is no. New Orleans doesn’t even control its own first-round pick, is actively trying to win games, and still hasn’t shown the ability to do so consistently. On the court, this matchup heavily favors Minnesota. Rudy Gobert should have no issues containing rookie center Derik Queen, while Jaden McDaniels’ length and defensive versatility are a nightmare for Trey Murphy’s perimeter-oriented game. All signs point to the Timberwolves handling this one comfortably.

Trent Jr. has cashed the Over in points in three of his last five games, including back-to-back appearances. 

The matchup against the Pacers is a hard one for three-point attempts; the opposing team's starting PFs have totaled the least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (2.5).. The Bucks have played at the 7th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games.. Offensive rebounds save possession and lead to extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Milwaukee Bucks rank 1stworst in in the NBA with only 8.6 offensive rebounds per game this year.

The Portland Trail Blazers won’t wow you with expected value while sitting as a -300 favorite against the Memphis Grizzlies, but this is a spot where the market still may not be fully accounting for what Memphis has become. The Grizzlies moved Jaren Jackson Jr. at the trade deadline and explored a trade market for Ja Morant, only to find none. Now armed with significant draft capital, it’s clear this franchise has shifted its focus away from winning games in the second half of the season. That reality is already starting to show up in their rotations and injury reports. Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers are pushing for a playoff spot and have every incentive to take care of business in games like this.

Clingan has corralled 13+ rebounds in five of his last eight games while averaging 13.6 rebounds. Over the last 10 games, the Grizzlies have surrendered the ninth-most total rebounds and second-most offensive rebounds. An already-depleted Memphis frontcourt traded Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jock Landale, and Santi Aldama and Zach Edey are still sidelined. Clingan should feast tonight.