NBA Futures Picks and Fades for 2022-23: Fear the Deer and Fade the Lakers

The wait is over, my friends — the NBA is back.

Summer's always fun, and the WNBA is a great league that more people are finally coming around to, but let's keep it real with ourselves here: we missed The Association.

With competitive parity perhaps at an all-time high, this season is going to be especially tricky for those of us navigating NBA futures bets, wondering in which markets to tie up valuable units for the next several months. 

That's why I've thrown together my best picks and fades for the 2022-23 season, highlighting both the NBA championship odds and major awards like NBA MVP and Rookie of the Year. 

NBA futures picks and fades for 2022-23

The picks below are what I see as the best value for each respective market. These aren't necessarily who I think will win, but given the price are most likely to produce a +EV result. 

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, October 6, 2022.

NBA championship

Favorite pick: Milwaukee Bucks (+800)

It feels like the Deer are being slept on amid the preseason odds shuffling and media distraction. It's almost as if there isn't enough...Fear.

I know the past two years have been kind of hectic on a global scale and reality's been easily blurred, but it bears reminding that the Bucks won the 2021 title and took the 2022 East champs to Game 7 without Khris Middleton.

They employ the man perhaps most regarded as the best basketball player alive (Giannis Antetokounmpo) — one who's shown a consistent propensity to have monster games in big moments and, at 27, is theoretically just now entering his prime.

The Bucks will benefit heavily from continuity, and even more from stability after injuries riddled their lineup all last season (keep in mind that Brook Lopez played like five minutes before the playoffs).

This is arguably the most dangerous two-way team in the NBA at the peak of its powers. At this price, Milwaukee's the most attractive option near the top of an extremely tight odds board. 

Underdog pick: Denver Nuggets (+1,800)

The last time the Nuggets were at full strength, they were one of the best teams in the NBA. 

Granted, it was a small sample, but with Aaron Gordon playing off Nikola Jokic in the space created by Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. while filling the defensive gap left by Jerami Grant, Denver looked pretty close to whole. 

Of course, Murray tore his ACL weeks later and Porter's back gave out last season, but if both are healthy come playoff time, this is a likely contender. 

Jokic kept this team afloat with one of the best statistical seasons ever, and they'll have upside via sophomore Bones Hyland, netted a sneaky-good signing in Bruce Brown, and return two All-Star caliber players.

There's risk here, particularly in Porter's case, but in a wide-open title race, there's definitely value in backing Denver at the same price as the friggin' Lakers. 

Which leads me to...

Fade: Los Angeles Lakers (+1,800)

It may not be smart office politics to out my boss' team like this (sorry, Ryan), but I can't account for any reason other than public misperception and excessive handle from Lakers stans as to why they're priced like this.

Last season was ugly and unfortunate, but not far off the median for this team's prognosis. LeBron James' durability (now in Year 20) has seriously waned in L.A., playing an average of just 55.75 games per campaign in Lakers threads. Anthony Davis remains arguably the most brittle star in the NBA. And Russell Westbrook's co-existence is constant uncertainty.

This roster doesn't look much better on paper than last year's iteration and has to contend in a much deeper West. Especially given health, I think they're a serious dog to win one playoff series, let alone four. Toss in a rookie head coach and you'd have to give me much longer odds to even think about touching the Lakers.

NBA MVP

Favorite pick: Joel Embiid (+650)

Joel Embiid's name will ring out with the media after finishing runner-up in each of the past two seasons. Whereas voter fatigue is absolutely a thing, the inverse can also sway the math Embiid's way in a close race if ballot-casters feel he's "due".

And The Process is sure to have himself among the MVP odds contenders come April. His popcorn stats and metrics are both consistently among the NBA's best, and he's shown a penchant for the type of headline-stealing box-score runs that really resonate in a season's narrative.

To boot, Philly low-key had one of the best offseasons of any team in the league, plugging several voids to complement an elite core with legitimate depth. Barring injury, I'll be shocked if they're not contending for the East's No. 1 seed, bolstering a robust MVP argument.

A player with an ego and competitive spirit like Embiid's won't be happy settling for second yet again.

https://t.co/Pqxh2EPubW - Kia MVP Ladder: Nikola Jokic finishes season at top in memorable chase

Denver's big man narrowly edges Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo in what will likely end up as one of the closest races in history. (via @mikecwright)https://t.co/d0BYLZcMqL pic.twitter.com/vpIIrDLwl9

— NBA (@NBA) April 15, 2022

Underdog pick: Kawhi Leonard (+3,000)

Okay, so, I get that Kawhi Leonard hasn't played competitive basketball in well over a year. 

The last time he took a year off, all he did was come back and put up a near-MVP campaign then morph into a f***ing god for two months in leading Toronto to an NBA championship. 

Clearly, career preservation is the name of Kawhi's game, and there's little reason to expect him to be anything but the apex killer he's proven himself as time and again.

The Clippers are the NBA's deepest team and can weather all kinds of injuries to their supporting cast. If Kawhi and Paul George are even remotely healthy, they'll be among the West's best teams.

Sure, Leonard's health risks are baked into this price, but so is some likely recency bias after his absence. Don't fret Load Management hindering his case for voters — it's the NBA in 2022, everyone's missing time. 

Fade: Luka Doncic (+425)

Luka Doncic was dynamite in the second half of last season, but I feel like Dallas is heavily capped in the West, especially with Jalen Brunson now in New York.

Maybe books are high on the Mavs after last year's run to the West Finals, but honestly, that Round 2 collapse told us far more about the Suns than it did this team.

By my count, the Warriors, Clippers, Grizzlies, Nuggets, Timberwolves, and probably still Suns (at least in the regular season) are all better than the Mavericks, with the Pelicans and Lakers fighting with Dallas for lower-tier playoff spots.

Do we really see an MVP on a lower-rung playoff team? Russell Westbrook is the only recent precedent, and that pick has aged worse than milk in the afternoon summer sun. As amazing as Luka might be this season, I'm skeptical the team success is there to support him.

At longer odds, maybe. But as the outright favorite? Hard pass. 

NBA Rookie of the Year

Favorite pick: Paolo Banchero (+200)

The odds don't yield a ton of value, but there's just going to be way too much opportunity for Paolo Banchero, who looks about as NBA-ready as a one-and-done prospect can be, with a very polished all-around offensive game and the type of body that can already romp with grown men. 

To boot, the Magic were pitiful on offense last year (29th in O-rating, 28th in TS%) — likely the NBA team most in need of a go-to scorer.

Enter Banchero, a three-level bucket-getter who's going to be fed touches from the get for a roster with zero expectations other than Victor Wembanyama equity.

Jaden Ivey and Jabari Smith Jr. are unlikely to see Banchero's usage, playing alongside Cade Cunningham and Jalen Green, respectively, and his production seems like a fairly sure thing. 

I'm not super fond of the Rookie of the Year odds market heading into 2022-23, but if we're rolling with one of the faves, Paolo's the safest bet. 

Underdog pick: Bennedict Mathurin (+1,200)

Circumstance and ability are meeting quite nicely in Banchero's case, as they are for Mathurin, who might be the best pure value on the preseason board.

Mathurin's an athletic tweener with a great stroke who can hit the three both off the dribble and in catch-and-shoot spots. He should be an immediate favorite target for cerebral playmaker and Most Improved Player odds favorite Tyrese Haliburton, and has the length and strength to be effective immediately.

One thing's certain — he's sure as hell not lacking for confidence:

Bennedict Mathurin wants to test LeBron James ???? (via @washingtonpost):

“A lot of people say he’s great. I want to see how great he is. I don’t think anybody is better than me. He’s going to have to show me he’s better than me.” pic.twitter.com/cx3ghu9n1R

— Evan Sidery (@esidery) June 24, 2022

Furthermore, Mathurin has multiple pathways to more minutes and touches. First is the possible imminent trade of Buddy Hield, which would open up starter's minutes. Benny could also simply beast incumbent fellow Canadian Chris Duarte for his role, as the higher-upside prospect on a team that's clearly rebuilding.

In either case, he should be a regular contributor by Christmas and could have a sky-high ceiling if things line up properly this season.

Fade: Keegan Murray (+450)

I say this somewhat reluctantly, as Murray obviously looked great in Summer League and, if fully unleashed, can be the type of instant offense that rates well for ROY voting. 

This is more a fade of the Kings organization than Murray — a franchise that has shown such widespread incompetence over Vivek Ranadive's tenure (and, really, during the Maloof era as well), with several draft picks seemingly set up for failure. 

It certainly doesn't help matters that the Kings think they're supposed to be good this year, and will probably lean more heavily on veterans in their pursuit of the play-in. 

Murray's MVP play in Vegas vaulted him into second choice on the Rookie of the Year odds board, siphoning even more value from what looks like a risky proposition.

Best of the rest

Defensive Player of the Year pick: Bam Adebayo (+650)

This guy was right there last year, but missed just too many games, as was the case with many Defensive Player of the Year contenders. 

While Rudy Gobert is an obvious favorite with a new team conveniently putting the spotlight on him, Bam Adebayo is a better value who ticks all the boxes:

• He plays the right position (bigs have won 25 of the past 30 DPOYs).
• His team will be among the best defensively in the NBA.
• His metrics are robust and complement the eye test.
• The eye test is awesome.
• He's one of the rare deterrents who can guard all five positions effectively.

The versatility should give Adebayo an edge here, where Gobert could find himself in a similar situation to last season: plugging holes around him in Minnesota, whose two best defenders went back to Utah in exchange for him. 

It's a shame that Gobert was hurt last year and we didn't get to gauge just how much voter fatigue would hurt his case on the verge of a record-tying fourth DPOY. But given Bam at a better price, he's got my pick,

Most Improved Player pick: Jalen Green (+3,000)

Late-season leaps can be a strong indicator of success in this market the following season (see Morant, Ja), and Jalen Green really ascended over the home stretch, averaging 20.8 ppg through 15 March games, and 28.2 ppg on almost 62% true shooting in five April contests. 

Of course, it was on the Rockets, so few people noticed. He'll come back this season with a summer of workouts under his belt, a better grip on the NBA season's flow, and higher doses of playmaking center Alperen Sengun in place of former go-to guy Christian Wood.

Houston's going to be god-awful again this year, and will have little incentive to do anything but feed Green reps and test his ceiling as a franchise centerpiece.

He's still not necessarily a favorite to win this award, but he should be priced way lower than this. 

Sixth Man of the Year pick: Tyler Herro (+800)

Herro's paid now, but his confidence is high enough that I don't see him resting on his laurels. 

Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro – the NBA’s reigning Sixth Man of the Year – has agreed on a four-year, $130 million contract extension, his agents Jeff Schwartz and Mike Lindeman of @Excelbasketball tell ESPN. pic.twitter.com/n1Z1IW73PX

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) October 2, 2022

It bears reminding: Tyler Herro led this race for the entire 2021-22 season and closed as a -20,000 favorite. Lou Williams is the only player in the past 15 years to score more off the bench than Herro did last season, and microwave scoring is the most sure-fire recipe for 6MOY success.

What's more, Herro ended the regular season on a tear, boosting his averages pretty much across the board in March and April, which could be indicative of this year's pace. 

This award's been big on repeat winners in the past decade, with Williams and Jamal Crawford winning a combined four times in a six-year stretch, including a back-to-back for Williams. If Herro reels off a similar campaign (and the circumstances are mostly indicative of him doing so), voters could easily give him another nod.

Jordan Poole is a worthy challenger, but the Sixth Man of the Year odds suggest he's twice as likely to win as Herro. That shouldn't be the case. 

Coach of the Year pick: Doc Rivers (+2,800)

NBA championship odds are pricing the Sixers like a second-tier contender, and while that may be reasonable given James Harden's annual Boo act in the postseason, they have all the makings of a regular-season juggernaut. 

Harden, Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Tobias Harris are a rock-solid foundation, now surrounded by some excellent role players who can quell absences during the regular-season grind. 

This unit finished within two games of the East's best record last season with a shallower bench and the Ben Simmons standoff hanging over the franchise for months. Expecting an improvement isn't ambitious at all.

A top-tier seed for the 76ers might surprise some, and Rivers is the type of tenured vet that can be assumed to get credit in that scenario. He may not have the sexy narrative someone like Chris Finch does, but again, there's considerable value at this price.

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