Oscars 2026 Odds, Picks, and Betting Updates

The field is set. The 2026 Academy Awards nominations have been announced, with Sinners leading the field with a record-setting 16 nominations.

Below, you can find the latest 2026 Oscars odds for every category from Best Picture to Best Editing to Best Short Animated Film as they become available.

The 98th edition of the Academy Awards will take place at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood on Sunday, March 15, with Conan O'Brien hosting for the second consecutive year.

Stay tuned to this spot for analysis, picks, and predictions for this year's awards.

Did you know you can trade on the Oscars in the US with Kalshi? Sign up now with promo code COVERS and get a $10 trading bonus.

Odds to win Best Picture

Best Picture Nominees

• Bugonia
• F1
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners
• Train Dreams

"Sinners" may lead the way with nominations, but it is not the frontrunner for Best Picture. That honor still belongs to "One Battle After Another," which received 13 total nominations and has been earmarked for the show's top honor almost since its release in August.

If any movie is in a position to usurp the action/comedy/thriller, it is "Sinners," which currently boasts a 25% chance at emerging victorious. The Shakespeare drama, "Hamnet," is a distant third at 3%.

Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account

Odds to win Best Director

Best Director Nominees

• Paul Thomas Anderson ("One Battle After Another")
• Ryan Coogler ("Sinners")
• Josh Safdie ("Marty Supreme")
• Joachim Trier ("Sentimental Value")
• Chloe Zhao ("Hamnet")

Paul Thomas Anderson, like his film, has been in the driver's seat since the movie's release. And just like in Best Picture, "Sinners" and "Hamnet" are second and third in terms of probability, but PTA has an even stronger grip on this category at a whopping 86% likelihood of winning.

Odds to win Best Actor

Best Actor Nominees

• Timothee Chalamet ("Marty Supreme")
• Leonardo DiCaprio ("One Battle After Another")
• Ethan Hawke ("Blue Moon")
• Michael B. Jordan ("Sinners")
• Wagner Moura ("The Secret Agent")

Best Actor is mostly chalk based on where we were trending ahead of the nominations, with Timothee Chalamet on track to win his first Oscar. It's a strong field, though, and Leonardo DiCaprio - who has often been used as a comp for Chalamet - waited a long time before the Oscars called his name for "The Revenant."

If an upset is waiting in the wings, Michael B. Jordan and DiCaprio are both at 11%, but Wagner Moura has received universal praise for "The Secret Agent," and Ethan Hawke is a legitimate dark horse in what might be a tighter category than it appears to be at first blush.

Odds to win Best Actress

Best Actress Nominees

• Jessie Buckley ("Hamnet")
• Rose Byrne ("If I Had Legs I'd Kick You")
• Kate Hudson ("Song Sung Blue")
• Renate Reinsve ("Sentimental Value")
• Emma Stone ("Bugonia")

Kate Hudson is a bit of a surprise as the fifth Best Actress nominee, and her odds reflect it, considering Chase Infiniti was considered a strong possibility for a nomination. Still, Jessie Buckley was more or less announced as the frontrunner when "Hamnet" debuted at festivals, and she hasn't relinquished any ground.

Odds to win Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actor Nominees

• Benicio del Toro ("One Battle After Another")
• Jacob Elordi ("Frankenstein")
• Delroy Lindo ("Sinners")
• Sean Penn ("One Battle After Another")
• Stellan Skarsgard ("Sentimental Value")

Delroy Lindo getting a Best Supporting Actor nomination is a pleasant surprise, even if he probably won't win. However, this category is way up in the air. Stellan Skarsgard won the Golden Globe, but Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn received high praise for their roles, and Jacob Elordi won a couple of awards for his role as Frankenstein's Monster already.

For now, Skarsgard is in the driver's seat, with Kalshi predicting a 66% chance of him winning in what is shockingly his first Academy Award nomination.

Odds to win Best Supporting Actress

Best Supporting Actress Nominees

• Elle Fanning ("Sentimental Value")
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas ("Sentimental Value")
• Amy Madigan ("Weapons")
• Wunmi Mosaku ("Sinners")
• Teyana Taylor ("One Battle After Another")

Ariana Grande DIDN'T receive a nomination. This opened the door for both Wunmi Mosaku and Elle Fanning to get nominations. Grande was seen as the one sure thing for "Wicked: For Good," but the film didn't receive a single nod.

However, this race seems to be between Teyana Taylor (the frontrunner) and Amy Madigan, who scored the lone nomination for the horror movie "Weapons." Madigan was trending upward until losing out to Taylor at the Golden Globes, and probability has since shifted in the latter's favor.  

Odds to win Best Original Screenplay

Best Original Screenplay Nominees

• Ryan Coogler ("Sinners")
• Robert Kaplow ("Blue Moon")
• Jafar Panahi ("It Was Just an Accident")
• Josh Safdie, Ronald Bronstein ("Marty Supreme")
• Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt ("Sentimental Value")

Ryan Coogler seems positioned to be rewarded here instead of in Best Director, with an 82% shot at winning. Jafar Panahi is a fun alternative option, but "It Was Just An Accident" being left out of the Best Picture race, combined with his absence in Best Director, makes that unlikely. However, this would be an opportunity to get a global icon on the stage that might not otherwise present itself.

Odds to win Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay Nominees

• Paul Thomas Anderson ("One Battle After Another")
• Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar ("Train Dreams")
• Guillermo del Toro ("Frankenstein")
• Will Tracy ("Bugonia")
• Chloe Zhao, Maggie O'Farrell ("Hamnet")

If you've ever read any Thomas Pynchon, the idea that one of his novels could be adapted at all, let alone be nominated for an Academy Award, is absurd. And yet, Paul Thomas Anderson's VERY LOOSE interpretation of "Vineland" is the frontrunner in the Best Adapted Screenplay category. 

And while it won't win, Will Tracy's "Bugonia" script reinterprets the 2003 Korean film, "Save the Green Planet!", and is an inspired choice.

Odds to win Best Documentary Feature

Best Documentary Feature Nominees

• The Alabama Solution
• Come See Me in the Good Light
• Cutting Through Rocks
• Mr. Nobody Against Putin
• The Perfect Neighbor

While it's somewhat surprising that Laura Poitras' Seymour Hersh documentary, "Cover-Up," was left behind, this has seemed like "The Perfect Neighbor"'s category. But, at 69%, that's not a runaway.

Odds to win Best International Feature

Best International Feature Nominees

• It Was Just an Accident
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sirat
• The Voice of Hind Rajab

Even though both "The Secret Agent" and "Sentimental Value" are present in the Best Picture race, it wouldn't be wise to write "It Was Just an Accident" off entirely. "Sentimental Value" is being treated like the frontrunner at 70% probability, and that makes sense, but Jafar Panahi's film being represented in Best Original Screenplay at least shows it's not getting lost in the shuffle.

By that same logic, Wagner Moura's Best Actor nomination and "The Secret Agent" getting a somewhat surprising Best Picture nod keep it alive here. This is an exciting category, and all five films are critically lauded. 

Odds to win Best Animated Feature

Best Animated Feature Nominees

• Arco
• Elio
• KPop Demon Hunters
• Little Amelie or the Character of Rain
• Zootopia 2

"KPop Demon Hunters" is winning. Its 89% even seems a bit low. 

Odds to win Best Film Editing

Best Film Editing Nominees

• Olivier Bugge Coutte ("Sentimental Value")
• Andy Jugensen ("One Battle After Another")
• Stephen Mirrione ("F1")
• Josh Safdie, Ronald Bronstein ("Marty Supreme")
• Michael P. Shawver ("Sinners")

Here's another category that seems to belong to "One Battle After Another," but it could also be one of the only spots that "F1" has a shot to break into. 

Odds to win Best Cinematography

Best Cinematography Nominees

• Michael Bauman ("One Battle After Another")
• Autumn Durald ("Sinners")
• Darius Khondji ("Marty Supreme")
• Dan Laustsen ("Frankenstein")
• Adolpho Veloso ("Train Dreams")

Autumn Durald is the current frontrunner for filming Ryan Coogler's "Sinners" in their second collaboration after also working on "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever." However, there was a brief point in time when Adolpho Veloso was neck and neck in terms of the Kalshi prediction market. Cinematography is one of "Train Dreams'" only nominations, but it is a visually arresting film, especially for a Netflix release.

Odds to win Best Visual Effects

Best Visual Effects Nominees

• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• F1
• Jurassic World Rebirth
• The Lost Bus
• Sinners

Both "Avatar" and "Avatar: The Way of Water" won Best Visual Effects. Even if the third installment isn't represented in many other categories, it likely won't be denied here.

Odds to win Best Casting

Best Casting Nominees

• Gabriel Domingues ("The Secret Agent")
• Nina Gold ("Hamnet")
• Cassandra Kulukundis ("One Battle After Another")
• Francine Maisler ("Sinners")
• Jennifer Venditti ("Marty Supreme")

The newest Oscars category has held firm as an expected win for "Sinners," currently sitting at 65%, with both "Marty Supreme" and "One Battle After Another" each sitting at 13%.

Odds to win Best Costume Design

Best Costume Design Nominees

• Miyako Bellizzi ("Marty Supreme")
• Ruth E. Carter ("Sinners")
• Kate Hawley ("Frankenstein")
• Deborah L. Scott ("Avatar: Fire and Ash")
• Malgosia Turzanska ("Hamnet")

Guillermo del Toro movies do well at the Academy Awards, and "Frankenstein" is no different. It won't win many awards, but it is likely to be recognized for Kate Hawley's costume work.

Odds to win Best Production Design

Best Production Design Nominees

• Hannah Beachler, Monique Champagne ("Sinners")
• Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton ("Hamnet")
• Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau ("Frankenstein")
• Jack Fisk, Adam Willis ("Marty Supreme")
• Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlinmo ("One Battle After Another")

See above. "Frankenstein" is expected to crush these categories.

Odds to win Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Best Makeup and Hairstyling Nominees

• Frankenstein
• Kokuho
• Sinners
• The Smashing Machine
• The Ugly Stepsister

Once again, the team behind "Frankenstein" (Cliona Furey, Jordan Samuel, Mike Hill) is poised to be recognized for craft work. This is a more interesting category, though, as it features "Kokuho," "The Smashing Machine," and "The Ugly Stepsister," none of which are present anywhere else. It's a bit of a surprising fall for "The Smashing Machine," which was at once seen as a possible opportunity for Dwayne Johnson to get a Best Actor nod.

Odds to win Best Original Song

Best Original Song Nominees

• "Dear Me"("Diane Warren: Relentless")
• "Golden" ("KPop Demon Hunters")
• "I Lied to You" ("Sinners")
• "Sweet Dreams of Joy" ("Viva Verdi!")
• "Train Dreams" ("Train Dreams")

Just like in Animated Feature, "KPop Demon Hunters" will not be denied. If anything, it's a surprise more songs from the film weren't nominated.

Odds to win Best Original Score

Best Original Score Nominees

• Alexandre Desplat ("Frankenstein")
• Jerskin Fendrix ("Bugonia")
• Ludwig Goransson ("Sinners")
• Jonny Greeenwood ("One Battle After Another")
• Max Richter ("Hamnet")

Ludwig Goransson is 2-for-2 in this category, previously winning for "Black Panther" and "Oppenheimer." He's probably getting the hat trick with "Sinners."

Odds to win Best Sound

Best Sound Nominees

• F1
• Frankenstein
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Sirat

"F1" is looking like the easy choice here, though the inclusion of "Sirat" is a fun nod to a lesser-seen (and heard) movie that is built largely around a sonic experience. 

Odds to win Best Documentary Short

Best Documentary Short Nominees

• All the Empty Rooms
• Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
• Children No More: Were and are Gone
• The Devil is Busy
• Perfectly a Strangeness

The shorts categories are always a crapshoot except in the odd year when a Wes Anderson releases something in one of these. "All the Empty Rooms" is a coin-flip favorite at around 51%, but "Armed Only With a Camera" has had some upward trajectory.

Odds to win Best Live Action Short

Best Live Action Short Nominees

• Butcher's Stain
• A Friend of Dorothy
• Jane Austen's Period Drama
• The Singers
• Two People Exchanging Saliva

Even more than in Documentary Short, the Live Action edition is anyone's guess, with both "Two People Exchanging Saliva" and "A Friend of Dorothy" listed with a greater than 25% shot. 

Odds to win Best Animated Short

Best Animated Short Nominees

• Butterfly
• Forevergreen
• The Girl Who Cried Pearls
• Retirement Plan
• The Three Sisters

Finally, "Butterfly" is a loose favorite here at 40%. That probably doesn't mean a lot. When making your predictions, either avoid these categories or go with the favorite in your Oscars pools.

Academy Awards Odds FAQ

Pages related to this topic