Oscars 2027 Odds, Picks, and Betting Updates

Summer movie season is officially upon us now that Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" has opened in cinemas to a rapturous response both critically and at the box office, earning a whopping $264 million worldwide in its opening weekend.

Now the question is: Will it be an Oscars heavyweight like Nolan's last film, "Oppenheimer"?

The 99th Academy Awards are scheduled for Sunday, March 14, 2027. Below, we'll look at some of the early Oscars odds, but we'll refrain from making any concrete predictions until we get a better lay of the land closer to the night.

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Odds to win Best Picture

Best Picture odds and trading prices

Anytime Christopher Nolan makes a movie, it's an event. He's become the premier big-ticket global filmmaker, and his latest, "The Odyssey," can be penciled in as a guaranteed Best Picture nominee.

Now, will it win Best Picture? While it's still too early to say for sure, this is the one category where I'd maybe forego patience. It went from +335 to +117 over the last two weeks alone, and its star likely won't dim anytime soon.

One hesitation I have is how Cannes showcases "The Black Ball" and "Fjord" perform once they've reached more eyeballs. "Anora" and "Sentimental Value" were both big Oscars movies coming out of that festival (the former winning Best Picture, the latter winning Best International Feature), and it's seemed to become more of an awards-season bellwether in recent years.

Granted, "One Battle After Another" and "Sinners" showed that big-time Hollywood movies can still rule the roost. But I also don't think "The Odyssey" will split the spectacle vote with "Dune: Part 3," either. 

Nolan's film is channeling the epics of old ("Lawrence of Arabia") and fantasy epics of recent history ("The Lord of the Rings"), and I'd be shocked if it wasn't shorter than even money come nomination season.

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Odds to win Best Director

Best Director odds and trading prices

Yowza! Nolan was +205 in the weeks leading up to "The Odyssey" hitting theaters, and his odds have just climbed and climbed. He's the undisputed front-runner, and I doubt Oscars voters will be reluctant to reward him so soon after his last one.

Steven Spielberg has seemingly fallen out of the race after "Disclosure Day" underperformed at the box office and was met with a mixed/tepid response. The 80% Rotten Tomatoes score doesn't really tell the tale, as it seems more like the film was largely admired without knocking people over.

For the record, I thought it was perfectly fine with some A+ moments, but it ultimately pales in comparison to Spielberg's other alien-related films, specifically, "Close Encounters of the Third Kind," which feels most in conversation with "Disclosure Day" among those.

Odds to win Best Actor

Best Actor odds and trading prices

For a variety of reasons, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu is a polarizing filmmaker, and regardless of whether or not you're a fan, or if you think "Digger" — his latest — looks like he's desperately trying to create "Dr. Strangelove" 2026, Tom Cruise doing something other than "Top Gun," "Mission: Impossible" or an adjacent kind of film is going to garner some serious attention.

It's worth remembering that Cruise was widely considered one of Hollywood's great actors, and not just a highlight reel of running and jumping and clinging to planes or buildings. That he has never won an Oscar (other than an honorary one) and has only been nominated THREE times is astounding. 

This will be a very interesting race, though, as Matt Damon has also never won an acting Oscar and will be riding the momentum of the year's biggest movie in a role that was physically demanding in a way that, funnily enough, helped earn Leonardo DiCaprio his Best Actor trophy for "The Revenant," which was helmed by "Digger" director Inarritu.

The other actor I'm at least curious about in this race, at least at this moment and at this price, is Sebastian Stan. "Fjord" won the Palme d'Or at Cannes, and Stan is at the heart of it. It's not outside the realm of likelihood that a performance from a smaller movie garnering some attention while Best Picture and Best Director go for bigger-ticket items.

However, even if "Digger" is a flop, Cruise should at least get a nomination for the sheer transformation he's undertaking.

Odds to win Best Actress

Best Actress odds and trading prices

Julianne Moore is the current frontrunner for her upcoming role in Jesse Eisenberg's "The Debut," and it's an interesting emblem for the Best Actress race, which doesn't have as many big movies attached as yet. Yes, Anne Hathaway is technically here for "The Odyssey," and while the performance is very strong, I wouldn't be surprised if she ultimately moves to Supporting Actress.

The same can be said for Inde Navarrette. While there is a good argument to be made in favor of her in Best Actress — the movie hinges on her performance — she isn't the overall lead in Curry Barker's horror phenomenon. 

The rest

These markets will fill out as festival season ramps up, with Venice, Telluride, Toronto, and New York (among other festivals) following throughout the summer and autumn months.

One movie not represented in these categories yet is "Behemoth!" It's the latest from writer/director Tony Gilroy ("Michael Clayton", "Andor") and it stars Pedro Pascal as a concert cellist facing what appears to be a personal crisis. It seems very "Tar" coded, which could be a great thing.

There is plenty of time for more movies to hit the slate with a bang, so while "The Odyssey" is the clear frontrunner after its opening weekend, nothing is set in stone.

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