More Academy Awards categories are hitting sportsbooks now that we're almost completely beyond festival season.
One Battle After Another remains the top option in the Best Picture race, while Timothee Chalamet has smashed his way into the Best Actor odds as the current betting favorite for Marty Supreme.
Let's look at the latest betting odds for the 98th Academy Awards, scheduled for Sunday, March 15, 2026, at 7 p.m. ET with Conan O'Brien set to return as host. We'll offer full analysis and a complete slate of picks closer to the night.
Odds to win Best Picture
| Film |  |
|---|---|
| One Battle After Another | -200 |
| Hamnet | +300 |
| Sinners | +600 |
| Sentimental Value | +800 |
| Marty Supreme | +800 |
| Avatar: Fire and Ash | +1600 |
| Rental Family | +1800 |
| Sorry Baby | +2000 |
| Pressure | +2000 |
| Bugonia | +2000 |
| No Other Choice | +2500 |
| Alpha | +2500 |
| Wicked: For Good | +2500 |
| The Life of Chuck | +2500 |
| Jay Kelly | +2500 |
| Frankenstein | +2500 |
| Deliver Me From Nowhere | +2500 |
| After the Hunt | +2500 |
| Caught Stealing | +3500 |
| Die My Love | +3500 |
| Song Sung Blue | +4000 |
| The Smashing Machine | +4000 |
| The Lost Bus | +4000 |
| Nouvelle Vague | +4000 |
| Michael | +4000 |
| Highest 2 Lowest | +4000 |
| Anemone | +4000 |
| Is This Thing On? | +5000 |
| Ella McCay | +5000 |
| Train Dreams | +5000 |
| The Ballad of a Small Player | +5000 |
| Roofman | +5000 |
| Mother Mary | +5000 |
| F1 | +5000 |
| The Testament of Ann Lee | +6500 |
| The Phoenician Scheme | +6500 |
| Weapons | +6500 |
| The History of Sound | +6500 |
Odds as of 10-7.
After almost unanimously rapturous reviews and a solid global box office through its first couple of weeks in cinemas, Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another is very clearly the betting favorite to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards. It has star power, it's a combustible plot, and it could have serious legs.
But Josh Safdie's Marty Supreme debuted at the New York Film Festival and was extremely warmly received, and it's shot up from +1400 to +800 in less than 24 hours.
Those will both be nominees at the very least, likely joining Hamnet, Sentimental Value, and Sinners as surefire options in the category. The rest of the field is a little more up in the air, but Wicked: For Good will probably be there, though a win seems far-fetched, and Sorry Baby could squeak in as the little indie that could after being well-reviewed out of Sundance and beyond.
Be careful when navigating these odds, though, as Pressure and Michael probably won't play in theaters this year, while Alpha, Julia Ducourneau's latest body horror opus, may not get much run and was panned out of Cannes.
Odds to win Best Director
| Film | |
|---|---|
| Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) | -225 |
| Chloe Zhao (Hamnet) | +250 |
| Ryan Coogler (Sinners) | +450 |
| Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) | +450 |
| Park Chan-wook (No Other Choice) | +900 |
| Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) | +1000 |
| Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) | +1100 |
| Bradley Cooper (Is This Thing On?) | +1100 |
| Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) | +1400 |
| Hikari (Rental Family) | +1400 |
| James Cameron (Avatar: Fire and Ash) | +1600 |
| Noah Baumbach (Jay Kelly) | +1800 |
| Kathryn Bigelow (A House of Dynamite) | +1800 |
| Jon M. Chu (Wicked: For Good) | +2000 |
| Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) | +2200 |
| Paul Greengrass (The Lost Bus) | +2800 |
| Kleber Menconca Filho (The Secret Agent) | +2800 |
| Nia DaCosta (Hedda) | +3500 |
| Benny Safdie (The Smashing Machine) | +3500 |
| Richard Linklater (Nouvelle Vague) | +4000 |
| Edward Berger (Ballad of a Small Player) | +4000 |
| Ronan Day-Lewis (Anemone) | +5000 |
| Luca Guadagnino (After the Hunt) | +5000 |
The Best Director odds mirrors Best Picture, especially up top, though Josh Safdie hasn't seen the same kind of helium as his film, Marty Supreme, has.
Still, the top four names listed feel like locks, with Safdie a really strong fifth option to round out the category. That's especially the case with Kathryn Bigelow's A House of Dynamite receiving tepid, at best, reviews out of festival season.
Although if Bradley Cooper's Is This Thing On? surprises with critics and audiences, he and the film may be our sleeper candidate.
Odds to win Best Actor
| Film | |
|---|---|
| Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme) | -225 |
| Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) | +250 |
| Jeremy Allen White (Deliver Me From Nowhere) | +450 |
| Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine) | +450 |
| Paul Mescal (Hamnet) | +900 |
| Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) | +1000 |
| Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone) | +1100 |
| Brendan Fraser (Rental Family) | +1100 |
| Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) | +1400 |
| George Clooney (Jay Kelly) | +1400 |
| Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) | +1600 |
| Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) | +1800 |
| Matthew McConaughey (The Lost Bus) | +1800 |
| Will Arnett (Is This Thing On?) | +2000 |
| Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice) | +2200 |
| Colin Farrell (Ballad of a Small Player) | +2800 |
| Vahid Mobasseri (It Was Just an Accident) | +2800 |
| Sergi Lopez (Sirat) | +3500 |
| Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) | +3500 |
| Hugh Jackman (Song Sung Blue) | +4000 |
| Channing Tatum (Roofman) | +4000 |
| Austin Butler (Caught Stealing) | +5000 |
| Tom Hiddleston (The Life of Chuck) | +5000 |
Best Actor is a deep category, and until Marty Supreme hit the festival circuit, this looked like a Leo DiCaprio vs. Dwayne Johnson showdown.
Now, Timothee Chalamet has surged to the top spot, and while Johnson will still likely get a nomination, The Smashing Machine bombed at the box office, and it wouldn't be unheard of for him to be usurped by someone like Daniel Day-Lewis or Brendan Fraser.
Odds to win Best Actress
| Film | |
|---|---|
| Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) | -250 |
| Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You) | +450 |
| Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) | +450 |
| Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) | +800 |
| Emma Stone (Bugonia) | +1000 |
| Sydney Sweeney (Christy) | +1000 |
| Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee) | +1100 |
| Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love) | +1400 |
| Julia Roberts (After the Hunt) | +1600 |
| Jodie Foster (Vie Privee) | +1800 |
| Tessa Thompson (Hedda) | +1800 |
| Laura Dern (Is This Thing On?) | +2000 |
| Mariam Afshari (It Was Just an Accident) | +2200 |
| Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) | +2200 |
| Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) | +2800 |
| Saja Kilani (The Voice of Hind Rajib) | +2800 |
| June Squibb (Eleanor the Great) | +3500 |
| Cate Blanchett (Father Mother Sister Brother) | +3500 |
| Eva Victor (Sorry Baby) | +4000 |
| Emma Mackey (Ella McCay) | +4000 |
| Julia Garner (Weapons) | +5000 |
| Olivia Colman (The Roses) | +5000 |
Jessie Buckley is way ahead of the pack for her role in Chloe Zhao's Hamnet, and it might be foolish to try and predict a dark horse.
Rose Byrne and Renate Reinsve are clearly pegged as the next most likely candidates, and they seem more possible than, say, Cynthia Erivo or Emma Stone. That's not a knock on either, but I'd be shocked if Wicked scored an acting award, and while Stone could be nominated, Bugonia figures to be Yorgos Lanthimos' strangest film in years and may be more alienating than Poor Things.
Two names I'm curious about here are Amanda Seyfried and Jennifer Lawrence. Seyfried was hailed for her performance in Mona Fastvold's The Testament of Ann Lee during its festival run, and the film has since been acquired by Searchlight, which will be released in December.
Lawrence is said to be extremely strong in Die My Love, Lynne Ramsay's latest, which got mixed reactions out of Cannes but could see extra life if its theatrical run is more positive.
Academy Awards Odds FAQ
Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another is the current betting favorite.
Paul Thomas Anderson has the shortest odds to win Best Director.
Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) are the current favorites.
The 2026 Oscars are scheduled for March 2, 2026 at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood.
Sean Baker's Anora won Best Picture in 2025 after emerging as a surprise frontrunner during the fall festival season.
Celebrated indie auteur Sean Baker, whose film Anora won Best Picture, took home the honors.
Mikey Madison won Best Actress for her titular role in Anora while Adrien Brody won for The Brutalist. It was Madison's first nomination while Brody previously won for The Pianist in 2003.
