"You Can See Everything" is a runaway hit after opening in a slightly limited release and has soared in probability to win Best Picture at the 2027 Academy Awards.
No documentary has ever even been nominated for Best Picture, so history could be made by the time nominations are announced. Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" still paces the field, but there is some mounting uncertainty.
The 99th Academy Awards are scheduled for Sunday, March 14, 2027. Below, we'll look at the current Oscars odds, but we'll refrain from making any concrete predictions until we get a better sense of the playing field closer to the night.
Best Picture odds and probabilities
| Movie |  |
|---|---|
| The Odyssey | 45% |
| You Can See Everything | 21% |
| La Bola Negra Dune: Part 3 | 16% |
| Dune: Part 3 | 10% |
| Wild Horse Nine | 2% |
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Lance Oppenheim and Nathan Fielder's surprise documentary about Elizabeth Holmes in the days leading up to her going to prison (and so much more) is a hit, and will expand its release to more theaters during its run.
No documentary has ever been nominated for Best Picture, so this would potentially be a big first. The funny thing is its unconventional elements may actually hurt "You Can See Everything" in Best Documentary, depending on how that voting branch feels about it.
Still, it's generated a ton of buzz since it debuted at Telluride, and it feels like the biggest threat to Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey."
That said, "La Bola Negra" (or "The Black Ball") has also seen its star rise gradually since Cannes. Netflix finally cracking through to win Best Picture with this decades-spanning triptych would certainly take the sting out of recent declines at the studio/streamer.
Odds to win Best Director
Best Director odds and trading probabilities
| Director | |
|---|---|
| Christopher Nolan | 56% |
| Denis Villeneuve | 18% |
| Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi | 15% |
| Martin McDonagh | 4% |
| Alejandro G. Inarritu | 3% |
| Phil Lord & Christopher Miller | 1% |
Yowza! Nolan is the undisputed front-runner, and I doubt Oscar voters will be reluctant to reward him so soon after his last one.
Perhaps the biggest competition will come from Denis Villeneuve, one of the few filmmakers who makes movies on a comparable scope/scale to Nolan's. "Dune: Part 3" is in a position akin to "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" in that it's the concluding chapter to a well-regarded trilogy that could conceivably be rewarded here to cover the entire series.
In any other year, Best Picture might be plausible, but not against "The Odyssey." And it's looking less and less likely for Villeneuve to do so here. Still, there is a ton of hype behind his latest, especially after how well the first two "Dune" films were received.
However, "La Bola Negra" has seen a lot of momentum coming out of Cannes, and the duo of Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi looks like a potential dark horse.
Odds to win Best Actor
Best Actor odds and trading prices
| Actor | |
|---|---|
| John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine) | 40% |
| Matt Damon (The Odyssey) | 20% |
| Andrew Scott (Pressure) | 16% |
| Tom Cruise (Digger) | 15% |
| Timothee Chalamet (Dune: Part Three) | 4% |
| Robert Pattinson (Primetime) | 3% |
| Anthony Ippolito (I Play Rocky) | 2% |
| Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary) | 2% |
Best Actor has seen a shift. For quite a while, Tom Cruise and Matt Damon were considered the front-runners in this category for "Digger" and "The Odyssey," respectively. Well, early word on "Digger" is underwhelming, and while Cruise could still parlay his transformative work in the film into a nomination (or a win), it seems like less of a certainty than it did just a month or so ago.
Instead, John Malkovich is getting raves for his role as an aging government spook just ahead of the 1973 Chilean coup in Martin McDonagh's "Wild Horse Nine."
I wouldn't put much stock in Andrew Scott being listed for "Pressure." That seems like a mistake. The role more likely to garner Scott a nomination is as Ian Charleson in the film "Elsinore," which has played at several festivals, including Telluride and TIFF.
Robert Pattinson has had a huge year, and he could finally be recognized by the Academy for his role as Chris Hansen in "Primetime," though I don't really see that happening. Anthony Ippolito might have a shot after playing Sylvester Stallone in "I Play Rocky," as it did well with audiences in Toronto.
I'm mostly curious to see if buzz starts swelling around Adam Driver after more people see "Paper Tiger" (the film could also get consideration in Best Picture and Best Director for James Gray).
Odds to win Best Actress
Best Actress odds and trading prices
| Actress | |
|---|---|
| Julianne Moore (The Debut) | 72% |
| Inde Navarrette (Obsession) | 16% |
| Sandra Huller (Rose) | 4% |
| Renate Reinsve (Fjord) | 2% |
| Anne Hathaway (The Odyssey) | 2% |
Julianne Moore is the current frontrunner for her upcoming role in Jesse Eisenberg's "The Debut," and it's an interesting emblem for the Best Actress race, which doesn't have as many big movies attached as yet. She's also jumped from 39% to 61% in less than two months.
Yes, Anne Hathaway is technically here for "The Odyssey," and while the performance is very strong, I wouldn't be surprised if she ultimately moves to Supporting Actress.
The same can be said for Inde Navarrette. While there is a good argument in favor of her in Best Actress — the movie hinges on her performance — she isn't the overall lead in Curry Barker's horror phenomenon.
Only five women are currently listed with a better-than 1% probability at Kalshi, which could give us a clear view of who the five nominees will be.
The rest
In addition to "Paper Tiger," another movie barely represented in these categories yet is "Behemoth!" It's the latest from writer/director Tony Gilroy ("Michael Clayton", "Andor") and it stars Pedro Pascal as a concert cellist facing what appears to be a personal crisis. It seems very "Tar" coded, which could be a great thing.
There is plenty of time for more movies to hit the slate with a bang, so while "The Odyssey" is the clear frontrunner after its primary theatrical run, nothing is set in stone.
