Now that we've hit December, Academy Awards odds are rounding more into shape. Film critics groups are starting to dole out their superlatives for the year, and early awards have already been given out.
Oscars odds will continue to fluctuate, especially with the Golden Globe nominations coming on December 8, before the show on January 11. The full Oscar nominations will follow on January 22, 2026.
Let's look at the latest betting odds for the 98th Academy Awards, scheduled for Sunday, March 15, 2026, at 7 p.m. ET with Conan O'Brien set to return as host. We'll offer full analysis and a complete slate of picks closer to the night.
Odds to win Best Picture
| Film | Studio/Distributor |  |
|---|---|---|
| One Battle After Another | Warner Bros. | -250 |
| Hamnet | Focus Features | +300 |
| Sinners | Warner Bros. | +700 |
| Marty Supreme | A24 | +900 |
| Sentimental Value | Neon | +1200 |
| Rental Family | Searchlight Pictures | +2000 |
| Avatar: Fire and Ash | 20th Century Studios | +2000 |
| Sorry Baby | A24 | +2000 |
| Pressure | StudioCanal | +2000 |
| Bugonia | Focus Features/Universal Pictures | +2000 |
| No Other Choice | Neon | +2500 |
| Alpha | Neon | +2500 |
| Wicked: For Good | Universal Pictures | +2500 |
| The Life of Chuck | Neon | +2500 |
| Jay Kelly | Netflix | +2500 |
| Frankenstein | Netflix | +2500 |
| After the Hunt | Amazon MGM Studios | +2500 |
| Die My Love | MUBI | +3500 |
| Caught Stealing | Columbia Pictures/Sony Pictures Releasing | +3500 |
| Deliver Me From Nowhere | 20th Century Studios | +4000 |
| Song Sung Blue | Focus Features/Universal Pictures | +4000 |
| The Smashing Machine | A24 | +4000 |
| The Lost Bus | Apple | +4000 |
| Nouvelle Vague | Netflix | +4000 |
| Highest 2 Lowest | Apple | +4000 |
| Anemone | Plan B Entertainment | +4000 |
| Is This Thing On? | Searchlight Pictures | +5000 |
| Ella McCay | 20th Century Studios | +5000 |
| Train Dreams | Netflix | +5000 |
| The Ballad of a Small Player | Netflix | +5000 |
| Roofman | Paramount Pictures | +5000 |
| Mother Mary | A24 | +5000 |
| F1 | Apple | +5000 |
| The Testament of Ann Lee | Searchlight Pictures | +6500 |
| The Phoenician Scheme | Focus Features/Universal Pictures | +6500 |
| Weapons | Warner Bros. | +6500 |
| The History of Sound | MUBI | +6500 |
Odds as of 12-4.
After almost unanimously rapturous reviews and a solid global box office through its first couple of weeks in cinemas, Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another is very clearly the betting favorite to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards. It has star power, it's a combustible plot, and it could have serious legs.
But Josh Safdie's Marty Supreme debuted at the New York Film Festival and was extremely warmly received, and it shot up from +1400 to +800 in less than 24 hours. It has hovered in that range since, sitting at +900 now before its wide release on Christmas Day.
Those will both be nominees at the very least, likely joining Hamnet, Sentimental Value, and Sinners as surefire options in the category. The rest of the field is a little more up in the air, but Wicked: For Good will probably be there, though a win seems far-fetched, and Sorry Baby could squeak in as the little indie that could after being well-reviewed out of Sundance and beyond.
Be careful when navigating these odds, though, as Pressure and Mother Mary probably won't play in theaters this year, while Alpha, Julia Ducourneau's latest body horror opus, may not get much run and was panned out of Cannes.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Odds to win Best Director
| Director | |
|---|---|
| Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) | -295 |
| Chloe Zhao (Hamnet) | +300 |
| Ryan Coogler (Sinners) | +700 |
| Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) | +700 |
| Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) | +1000 |
| Park Chan-wook (No Other Choice) | +1200 |
| Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) | +1600 |
| Bradley Cooper (Is This Thing On?) | +1800 |
| Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) | +2500 |
| Hikari (Rental Family) | +2500 |
| Noah Baumbach (Jay Kelly) | +2800 |
| Jon M. Chu (Wicked: For Good) | +2800 |
| Kathryn Bigelow (A House of Dynamite) | +2800 |
| Benny Safdie (The Smashing Machine) | +3500 |
| Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) | +3500 |
| Paul Greengrass (The Lost Bus) | +3500 |
| Kleber Menconca Filho (The Secret Agent) | +4000 |
| Nia DaCosta (Hedda) | +5000 |
| James Cameron (Avatar: Fire and Ash) | +5000 |
| Richard Linklater (Nouvelle Vague) | +6500 |
| Edward Berger (Ballad of a Small Player) | +6500 |
| Ronan Day-Lewis (Anemone) | +6500 |
| Luca Guadagnino (After the Hunt) | +6500 |
| Scott Cooper (Deliver Me From Nowhere) | +6500 |
| Kogonada (A Big Bold Beautiful Journey) | +6500 |
| Derek Cianfrance (Roofman) | +6500 |
The Best Director odds mirror Best Picture's, especially up top, though Josh Safdie hasn't seen the same kind of helium as his film, Marty Supreme, has.
Still, the top four names listed feel like locks, with Safdie a strong fifth option to round out the category. That's especially the case with Kathryn Bigelow's A House of Dynamite, receiving tepid, at best, reviews.
While Ryan Coogler could emerge as a contender opposite Paul Thomas Anderson here, I actually like Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident. You could find +2500 odds for him this week, but that number has evaporated since he won Best Director at the Gotham Independent Film Awards, and it was announced that he was sentenced to a year in prison in his native Iran (in absentia while he's promoting the film abroad).
If you're unfamiliar with his work, Panahi has long made movies critical of the Iranian government, which has gotten him in trouble with authorities. Getting this much press now on an international stage, especially after winning the Palme d'Or at Cannes, could lead to something of a statement award.
Odds to win Best Actor
| Actor | |
|---|---|
| Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme) | -200 |
| Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) | +350 |
| Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine) | +800 |
| Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) | +1200 |
| Jeremy Allen White (Deliver Me From Nowhere) | +1200 |
| Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) | +1200 |
| Paul Mescal (Hamnet) | +1400 |
| Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) | +1400 |
| Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone) | +1400 |
| George Clooney (Jay Kelly) | +1600 |
| Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) | +1600 |
| Brendan Fraser (Rental Family) | +2500 |
| Matthew McConaughey (The Lost Bus) | +2500 |
| Will Arnett (Is This Thing On?) | +2500 |
| Vahid Mobasseri (It Was Just an Accident) | +2500 |
| Colin Farrell (Ballad of a Small Player) | +2500 |
| Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) | +2500 |
| Hugh Jackman (Song Sung Blue) | +2500 |
| Sergi Lopez (Sirat) | +2500 |
| Austin Butler (Caught Stealing) | +2500 |
| Channing Tatum (Roofman) | +3500 |
| Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice) | +4000 |
| Tom Hiddleston (The Life of Chuck) | +4000 |
| Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest) | +4000 |
| Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein) | +4000 |
Best Actor is a deep category, and until Marty Supreme hit the festival circuit, this looked like a Leo DiCaprio vs. Dwayne Johnson showdown.
Now, Timothee Chalamet has surged to the top spot, and while Johnson will still likely get a nomination, The Smashing Machine bombed at the box office, and it wouldn't be unheard of for him to be usurped by someone like Daniel Day-Lewis or Brendan Fraser.
Other names to keep an eye on who may be trending upward are Ethan Hawke in Richard Linklater's Blue Moon, Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent, and Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams.
Odds to win Best Actress
| Actress | |
|---|---|
| Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) | -340 |
| Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another) | +250 |
| Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You) | +300 |
| Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) | +500 |
| Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) | +900 |
| Emma Stone (Bugonia) | +1000 |
| Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee) | +1100 |
| Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love) | +2000 |
| Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) | +2000 |
| Sydney Sweeney (Christy) | +2000 |
| Jodie Foster (Vie Privee) | +2500 |
| Mariam Afshari (It Was Just an Accident) | +3500 |
| Laura Dern (Is This Thing On?) | +3500 |
| Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) | +3500 |
| Tessa Thompson (Hedda) | +3500 |
| Saja Kilani (The Voice of Hind Rajib) | +3500 |
| June Squibb (Eleanor the Great) | +3500 |
| Cate Blanchett (Father Mother Sister Brother) | +3500 |
| Julia Roberts (After the Hunt) | +3500 |
| Eva Victor (Sorry Baby) | +4000 |
| Emma Mackey (Ella McCay) | +5000 |
| Olivia Colman (The Roses) | +5000 |
Jessie Buckley is way ahead of the pack for her role in Chloe Zhao's Hamnet, and it might be foolish to try and predict a dark horse.
However, since we last looked at these odds, Chase Infiniti is now listed as No. 2 at +250 for her role in Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another. That she wasn't even a consideration a month ago in this category - likely expected to be in Supporting Actress - may bode well for her chances.
Rose Byrne and Renate Reinsve are clearly pegged as the next most likely candidates, and they seem more possible than, say, Cynthia Erivo or Emma Stone. That's not a knock on either, but I'd be shocked if Wicked scored an acting award, and while Stone could be nominated, Bugonia figures to be Yorgos Lanthimos' strangest film in years and may be more alienating than Poor Things.
Two names I'm curious about here are Amanda Seyfried and Jennifer Lawrence. Seyfried was hailed for her performance in Mona Fastvold's The Testament of Ann Lee during its festival run, and the film has since been acquired by Searchlight, which will be released in December.
Lawrence is extremely good in Die My Love, Lynne Ramsay's latest, which got mixed reactions out of Cannes, but could see extra life now that more people are seeing the film.
Odds to win Best Supporting Actor
| Actress | |
|---|---|
| Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) | -150 |
| Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) | +175 |
| Paul Mescal (Hamnet) | +350 |
| Jeremy Strong (Deliver Me From Nowhere) | +900 |
| Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) | +1200 |
| Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another) | +1400 |
| Miles Caton (Sinners) | +1600 |
| Delroy Lindo (Sinners) | +1600 |
| Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) | +1600 |
| Josh O'Connor (Wake Up Dead Man) | +1600 |
| Akira Emoto (Rental Family) | +1600 |
| Sean Bean (Anemone) | +2000 |
| Jack O'Connell (Sinners) | +2000 |
| Bradley Cooper (Is This Thing On?) | +2000 |
| Andrew Garfield (After the Hunt) | +2000 |
| Jonathan Bailey (Wicked: For Good) | +3500 |
| Jacobi Jupe (Hamnet) | +5000 |
| Idris Elba (A House of Dynamite) | +5000 |
| Dylan O'Brien (Twinless) | +5000 |
| Diego Luna (Kiss of the Spider Woman) | +5000 |
| William H. Macy (Train Dreams) | +6500 |
| Leo Woodall (Nuremberg) | +6500 |
| Ben Foster (Christy) | +6500 |
| Andrew Scott (Blue Moon) | +6500 |
Sean Penn and Stellan Skarsgard have been the two most prominent candidates in this category, and the former has surged to favorite status in the last couple of months. And Skarsgard is being hailed for what some are calling a career-best performance.
However, there are plenty of potential options further down the ballot. Adam Sandler already has articles about whether or not his role in Jay Kelly will finally earn him that elusive Oscar. Paul Mescal, who is listed in Best Actor as well, could be a contender here if Hamnet positions Jessie Buckley as the lead.
Odds to win Best Supporting Actress
| Actress | |
|---|---|
| Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) | +100 |
| Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) | +125 |
| Amy Madigan (Weapons) | +300 |
| Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) | +500 |
| Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme) | +800 |
| Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) | +1000 |
| Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) | +1400 |
| Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) | +2000 |
| Regina Hall (One Battle After Another) | +3500 |
| Glenn Close (Wake Up Dead Man) | +3500 |
| Rebecca Ferguson (A House of Dynamite) | +4000 |
| Laura Dern (Jay Kelly) | +4000 |
| Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of the Spider Woman) | +4000 |
| Hailee Steinfeld (Sinners) | +4000 |
| Nina Hoss (Hedda) | +5000 |
| Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) | +5000 |
| Kirsten Dunst (Roofman) | +5000 |
| Felicity Jones (Train Dreams) | +6500 |
| Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt) | +6500 |
Early reviews for Wicked: For Good haven't been, um, overwhelmingly positive, but it projects to be a massive box office hit. I'm curious about whether or not Ariana Grande's odds will shift after its release.
At any rate, Teyana Taylor seems like a great alternative at +125, especially if One Battle After Another cleans up.
And don't sleep on Amy Madigan for her role as Aunt Gladys from the horror ensemble Weapons. She's currently +300.
Academy Awards Odds FAQ
Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another is the current betting favorite.
Paul Thomas Anderson has the shortest odds to win Best Director.
Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) are the current favorites.
The 2026 Oscars are scheduled for March 2, 2026 at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood.
Sean Baker's Anora won Best Picture in 2025 after emerging as a surprise frontrunner during the fall festival season.
Celebrated indie auteur Sean Baker, whose film Anora won Best Picture, took home the honors.
Mikey Madison won Best Actress for her titular role in Anora while Adrien Brody won for The Brutalist. It was Madison's first nomination while Brody previously won for The Pianist in 2003.
