"The Odyssey" has made $1.75 billion worldwide. It's a bona fide hit and will almost certainly be showered with nominations this upcoming awards season.
Now the question is: Will it own Oscar night like Nolan's last film, "Oppenheimer"?
The 99th Academy Awards are scheduled for Sunday, March 14, 2027. Below, we'll look at the early Oscars odds, but we'll refrain from making any concrete predictions until we get a better sense of the playing field closer to the night.
Best Picture odds and probabilities
| Movie |  |
|---|---|
| The Odyssey | 49% |
| The Black Ball | 27% |
| Dune: Part 3 | 10% |
| Wild Horse Nine | 4% |
| The Debut | 3% |
| You Can See Everything | 2% |
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Anytime Christopher Nolan makes a movie, it's an event. He's become the premier big-ticket global filmmaker, and his latest, "The Odyssey," can be penciled in as a guaranteed Best Picture nominee.
Now, will it win Best Picture? While it's still too early to say for sure, this is the one category where I'd maybe forego patience.
One hesitation I have is how Cannes showcases "The Black Ball" and "Fjord" perform once they've reached more eyeballs. "Anora" and "Sentimental Value" were both big Oscars movies coming out of that festival (the former winning Best Picture, the latter winning Best International Feature), and it's seemed to become more of an awards-season bellwether in recent years.
Granted, "One Battle After Another" and "Sinners" showed that big-time Hollywood movies can still rule the roost. But I also don't think "The Odyssey" will split the spectacle vote with "Dune: Part 3," either.
Nolan's film is channeling the epics of old ("Lawrence of Arabia") and fantasy epics of recent history ("The Lord of the Rings"), and he could be the first filmmaker since David Lean to win Best Picture and Best Director for consecutive films.
The most interesting addition here is "You Can See Everything," the new Nathan Fielder-Lance Oppenheim documentary about Elizabeth Holmes. No documentary has ever won Best Picture, so it would be a monumental victoy. Still, at 2%, it seems highly unlikely.
Odds to win Best Director
Best Director odds and trading probabilities
| Director | |
|---|---|
| Christopher Nolan | 66% |
| Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi | 18% |
| Denis Villeneuve | 14% |
| Martin McDonagh | 3% |
| Alejandro Inarritu | 2% |
| Phil Lord & Christopher Miller | 1% |
Yowza! Nolan is the undisputed front-runner, and I doubt Oscar voters will be reluctant to reward him so soon after his last one.
Perhaps the biggest competition will come from Denis Villeneuve, one of the few filmmakers who makes movies on a comparable scope/scale to Nolan's. "Dune: Part 3" is in a position akin to "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" in that it's the concluding chapter to a well-regarded trilogy that could conceivably be rewarded here to cover the entire series.
In any other year, Best Picture might be plausible, but not against "The Odyssey." And it's looking less and less likely for Villeneuve to do so here. Still, there is a ton of hype behind his latest, especially after how well the first two "Dune" films were received.
However, "The Black Ball" has seen a lot of momentum coming out of Cannes, and the duo of Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi is looking like a potential dark horse.
Odds to win Best Actor
Best Actor odds and trading prices
| Actor | |
|---|---|
| John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine) | 66% |
| Andrew Scott (Pressure) | 26% |
| Matt Damon (The Odyssey) | 25% |
| Tom Cruise (Digger) | 8% |
| Robert Pattinson (Primetime) | 5% |
| Anthony Ippolito (I Play Rocky) | 3% |
| Timothee Chalamet (Dune: Part Three) | 3% |
| Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary) | 1% |
Best Actor has seen a shift. For quite a while, Tom Cruise and Matt Damon were considered the front-runners in this category for "Digger" and "The Odyssey," respectively. Well, early word on "Digger" is underwhelming, and while Cruise could still parlay his transformative work in the film into a nomination (or a win), it seems like less of a certainty than it did just a month or so ago.
Instead, John Malkovich is getting raves for his role as an aging government spook just ahead of the 1973 Chilean coup in Martin McDonagh's "Wild Horse Nine."
I wouldn't put much stock in Andrew Scott being listed for "Pressure." That seems like a mistake. The role more likely to garner Scott a nomination is as Ian Charleson in the film "Elsinore," which has played at several festivals, including Telluride and TIFF.
Robert Pattinson has had a huge year, and he could finally be recognized by the Academy for his role as Chris Hansen in "Primetime," though I don't really see that happening. Anthony Ippolito might have a shot after playing Sylvester Stallone in "I Play Rocky," as it did well with audiences in Toronto.
I'm mostly curious to see if buzz starts swelling around Adam Driver after more people see "Paper Tiger" (the film could also get consideration in Best Picture and Best Director for James Gray).
Odds to win Best Actress
Best Actress odds and trading prices
| Actress | |
|---|---|
| Julianne Moore (The Debut) | 61% |
| Inde Navarrette (Obsession) | 17% |
| Sandra Huller (Rose) | 5% |
| Renate Reinsve (Fjord) | 3% |
| Anne Hathaway (The Odyssey) | 2% |
| Mikey Madison (The Social Reckoning) | 2% |
| Olivia Wilde (The Invite) | 2% |
Julianne Moore is the current frontrunner for her upcoming role in Jesse Eisenberg's "The Debut," and it's an interesting emblem for the Best Actress race, which doesn't have as many big movies attached as yet. She's also jumped from 39% to 61% in less than two months.
Yes, Anne Hathaway is technically here for "The Odyssey," and while the performance is very strong, I wouldn't be surprised if she ultimately moves to Supporting Actress.
The same can be said for Inde Navarrette. While there is a good argument in favor of her in Best Actress — the movie hinges on her performance — she isn't the overall lead in Curry Barker's horror phenomenon.
The rest
In addition to "Paper Tiger," another movie barely represented in these categories yet is "Behemoth!" It's the latest from writer/director Tony Gilroy ("Michael Clayton", "Andor") and it stars Pedro Pascal as a concert cellist facing what appears to be a personal crisis. It seems very "Tar" coded, which could be a great thing.
There is plenty of time for more movies to hit the slate with a bang, so while "The Odyssey" is the clear frontrunner after its primary theatrical run, nothing is set in stone.
