2024 Oscars Betting Odds & Predictions

The Academy Award nominations were announced on Tuesday, January 23 with Oppenheimer leading the way with 13. Let's take a look at the betting odds to see who's favored to take Oscar home on Sunday, March 10.

Feb 20, 2024 • 12:32 ET • 5 min read
Christopher Nolan Oppenheimer Academy Awards
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Academy Awards nominations were announced on Tuesday, January 23. There were some surprises but the major categories were largely chalk.

Oscars odds have been updated to reflect the field since it's been narrowed to 10 in Best Picture and five in every other category.

Let's take a look at how it's all shaking out now that we know who's got the nods ahead of the ceremony scheduled for Sunday, March 10. And now, odds have come out for every category that will be presented on the show, and we've got them all listed below.

Additionally, we have deeper looks at Best Picture predictions, Best Actor predictions, and Best Actress predictions.

All odds and predictions as of February 20, 2024.

Odds to win Best Picture

Film DraftKings bet365
Oppenheimer -1,200 -1,000
The Holdovers +1,200 +1,400
Poor Things +1,400 +1,100
The Zone of Interest  +2,800 +2,800
Anatomy of a Fall  +3,500 +2,800
Barbie +4,000 +4,000
American Fiction  +5,000 +5,000
Killers of the Flower Moon  +5,000 +6,600
Past Lives +8,000 +8,000
Maestro +10,000 +10,000
  • Best Picture Prediction: Since opening in June, Oppenheimer has dominated Best Picture betting odds and its chances have only improved. It won Best Picture — Drama at the Golden Globes and has seen its odds shorten even further. It also leads all movies with 13 nominations and nothing is going to upset it. 

Odds to win Best Director

Director DraftKings bet365
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) -10,000 -3,333
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) +1,800 +1,200
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) +2,200 +2,000
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) +2,200 +4,000
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) +4,000 +2,600
  • Best Director Prediction: Christopher Nolan is heavily favored to win his first-ever Oscar and there is little reason to bet against this at the moment, especially as odds have shortened even more. Oppenheimer is the heavy front-runner in several categories and was one of the biggest movies at the box office in 2023. Nolan is one of the most accomplished working filmmakers never to have won in this category and, as it so often happens, it is his time.

Odds to win Best Actor

Actor DraftKings bet365
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) -400 -333
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) +250 +240
Bradley Cooper (Maestro) +1,400 +1,100
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) +6,500 +8,000
Colman Domingo (Rustin) +6,500 +8,000
  • Best Actor Prediction: While Cillian Murphy is seen as the presumptive favorite for Oppenheimer, there was at least some value in grabbing Paul Giamatti at +500 for his work in The Holdovers (it was +700 before he won Best Actor - Musical /Comedy at the Golden Globes). Those odds have shortened even more since. Murphy is terrific, but Nolan's films are more celebrated for their technical aspects than for their performances. Giamatti has also never won and reuniting with his Sideways director, Alexander Payne, in an extremely well-received film that hearkens back to an earlier era of cinema, could play in his favor. It's also worth noting that very few films come anywhere close to sweeping the top categories as the Academy is larger, more diverse, and tends to spread the love around more often than not. I still like Giamatti in this spot.

Odds to win Best Actress

Actress DraftKings bet365
Emma Stone (Poor Things) -250 -250
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) +175 +175
Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall) +1,400 +1,600
Carey Mulligan (Maestro) +3,500 +2,500
Annette Benning (Nyad) +5,000 +5,000
  • Best Actress Prediction: This category has gone back and forth between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone. I stuck with Gladstone in late December when she was listed at +125 and Stone was -110. It's a real coin flip and Stone's odds have shortened once more, so the value has disappeared. While Killers of the Flower Moon received many nominations, I expect Stone to ultimately win here but it's very close. Gladstone's odds have lengthened again, though, and if she gets back between +200 and +300, she'd be worth a lean just in terms of value.

Odds to win Best Supporting Actor

Actor DraftKings bet365
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) -2,000 -1,408
Ryan Gosling (Barbie) +900 +800
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) +1,800 +1,800
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things) +1,800 +1,800
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) +2,500 +2,800
  • Best Supporting Actor Prediction: Best Supporting Actor is as deep a category as I've ever seen, including several performances that didn't get nominated, but it's also one of the biggest no-brainers on the awards circuit. Robert Downey Jr. will win for his petulant performance as Lewis Strauss. With the lines so short, however, I've been fading this category for months because it's been a foregone conclusion. This is his third Oscar nomination (ChaplinTropic Thunder being the others) and will be his first win.

Odds to win Best Supporting Actress

Actress DraftKings bet365
Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) -3,500 -3,333
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) +1,600 +1,400
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) +1,600 +1,600
America Ferrera (Barbie) +1,600 +2,000
Jodie Foster (Nyad) +2,800 +3,300
  • Best Supporting Actress Prediction: Chalk. Da'Vine Joy Randolph has gotten a lot of deserved accolades since The Holdovers premiered and has surged to the top spot. While The Color Purple is getting some buzz in this category and Emily Blunt was seen as the frontrunner when Oppenheimer opened, this is Randolph's to lose and I wouldn't risk an upset, especially after winning at the GlobesRandolph was -175 in late December, and her odds have only shortened since.

Odds to win Best Original Screenplay

Movie DraftKings bet365
Anatomy of a Fall -165 -250
The Holdovers +135 +175
Past Lives +1,200 +1,200
Maestro +4,000 +4,000
May December +4,000 +4,000
  • Best Original Screenplay Prediction: This market has flipped at the top with Anatomy of a Fall taking over as the betting favorite over The Holdovers. While The Holdovers has a lot of support, Anatomy of a Fall is similarly beloved and I imagine the Academy is looking to honor it somewhere, especially after France didn't submit it for Best International Film (that honor went to The Taste of Things, which wasn't even nominated). Because I expect Giamatti and Randolph to win their respective trophies, I lean toward Anatomy of a Fall here.

Odds to win Best Adapted Screenplay

Movie DraftKings bet365
American Fiction -125 -152
Oppenheimer +150 +175
Barbie +500 +650
Poor Things +800 +1,100
The Zone of Interest +4,000 +4,000
  • Best Adapted Screenplay Prediction: Like in Original Screenplay, we've seen a shift in the odds with American Fiction now the favorite. It's not an overwhelming favorite, though, and I actually like the value on Barbie at +650. Initially, Barbie was expected to run in Best Original Screenplay but because it's a movie featuring pre-existing characters, it was ruled to be ineligible and was therefore transported to Best Adapted Screenplay instead. While Barbie should do well in some below-the-line categories, the script has been one of the main areas of praise for the film, which transcended being a movie about a toy doll to have something more meaningful to say while also being absurdly funny. American Fiction probably wins but the value on Barbie is too good to pass up.

Odds to win Best Editing

Movie DraftKings bet365
Oppenheimer -1,400 -1,111
Anatomy of a Fall +800 +600
Killers of the Flower Moon +1,400 +1,600
The Holdovers +1,400 +2,000
Poor Things +2,500 +2,500
  • Best Editing Prediction: Watch the atomic bomb test sequence from Oppenheimer again. Past that, Oppenheimer wields two converging timelines in a manner that could easily be fumbled. Editing is the key to making it work.

Odds to win Best Animated Feature

Movie DraftKings bet365
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse -190 -189
The Boy and the Heron +125 +137
Nimona +2,000 +2,500
Elemental +2,800 +2,800
Robot Dreams +3,500 +3,300
  • Best Animated Feature Prediction: For the most part, this year's Academy Awards feel pre-determined, which has become a trend in recent years. Predictability is a problem the Academy will have to address at some point to reel viewers back in. However, I can't figure out why The Boy and the Heron isn't the betting favorite here. It might have to do with how high-profile Across the Spider-Verse is, but Hayao Miyazaki's first movie in a decade is universally beloved and wholly unique. It also won the Golden Globe, and I imagine the eventual third installment of the animated Spider-Man trilogy will fare better than the middle chapter.

Odds to win Best Documentary Feature

Movie DraftKings bet365
20 Days in Mariupol -800 -909
Four Daughters +800 +900
The Eternal Memory +900 +1,000
Bobi Wine: The Peoples President +1,200 +1,400
To Kill a Tiger +2,500 +2,500
  • Best Documentary Feature Prediction: Here is an example of a movie of the moment. 20 Days in Mariupol is classified as a capital "I" important movie and I'm surprised its odds aren't shorter. Still, at -800, it's not worth a wager.

Odds to win Best International Feature

Movie DraftKings bet365
The Zone of Interest -2,500 -2,500
Society of the Snow +900 +1,400
Perfect Days +1,600 +1,600
The Teacher's Lounge +1,600 +2,500
Io Capitano +2,000 +1,800
  • Best International Feature Prediction: Okay, so The Zone of Interest is winning here. It's a Best Picture nominee, Jonathan Glazer got a Best Director nod, and it's up for Best Adapted Screenplay. However, Society of Snow may have fallen victim to Netflix's bizarre release rollout and there's an alternate universe where it gets the Best Picture nomination that ultimately went to Maestro if the streamer put its attention on JA Bayona's film instead. It dominated the Netflix charts and has generally been lauded. The Zone of Interest is a masterful work, but it has its detractors for its cold, distant approach to telling a Holocaust story, particularly from the perspective of the family of an Auschwitz commandant. At 14/1, Society of Snow is at least worth a speculative lean. 

Odds to win Best Cinematography

Movie DraftKings bet365
Oppenheimer -2,500 -2,000
Poor Things +1,000 +900
Killers of the Flower Moon +1,200 +1,400
Maestro +2,000 +2,000
El Conde +2,500 +2,500
  • Best Cinematography Prediction: Hoyte van Hoytema has worked with Christopher Nolan on four straight films, starting with Interstellar. He is a master with the camera and has been a part of some truly phenomenal visuals on screen. This his is second nomination after being recognized for Dunkirk in 2017, and it will undoubtedly be his first win. A technical achievement on several levels, I expect Oppenheimer to sweep most of the visual and sound categories.

Odds to win Best Production Design

Movie DraftKings bet365
Barbie -165 -139
Poor Things +120 +100
Oppenheimer +1,000 +1,400
Killers of the Flower Moon +2,800 +3,300
Napoleon +3,500 +3,300
  • Best Production Design Prediction: When the nominations were announced, Barbie was listed as short as -500 due to its commitment to lavish, colorful, and practical sets. There is a tangible nature to Barbie even when it's set in a fantastical location. This isn't a CGI-forward production and its tactile filmmaking enhances the final product. However, Poor Things has made up considerable ground. It's an outlandish, visual feast of a movie that, glibly, serves as a more adult, perverse spin on Barbie. I still expect Barbie to win this, and the odds are in an arena that is a bit more palatable. That said, it's not a slam dunk, so don't be shocked if Poor Things follows through with the latest line movement.

Odds to win Best Costume Design

Movie DraftKings bet365
Barbie -150 -125
Poor Things +110 -111
Oppenheimer +1,800 +2,500
Napoleon +2,500 +2,500
Killers of the Flower Moon +2,500 +2,800
  • Best Costume Design Prediction: Like with Best Production Design, Poor Things has made a late surge in the odds to nearly pull even with Barbie. It's almost a coin flip. Maybe splitting these two awards between Barbie and Poor Things is risky, but this is the more likely one for Yorgos Lanthimos' absurdist gender-flipped Frankenstein riff. The costumes are so lavish and intricate and are an integral part of the visual flair of the film. Obviously, the same can be said about Barbie and how they brought the wardrobes of toys to life. Consider this a slight lean. 

Odds to win Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Movie DraftKings bet365
Maestro -190 -189
Poor Things +130 +137
Society of the Snow +1,600 +1,600
Oppenheimer +2,000 +2,000
Golda +3,500 +3,300
  • Best Makeup and Hairstyling Prediction: The odds here have shifted dramatically since the nominations were announced. While Maestro certainly could still win — Bradley Cooper's transformation into Leonard Bernstein, particularly the older version of him, is impressive — the movie feels like an afterthought at this point. Poor Things will win here, but there is also some value in backing Society of the Snow for how it depicted the gruesome realities in the aftermath of a plane crash atop a mountain and it's been getting some extra press of late.

Odds to win Best Visual Effects

Movie DraftKings bet365
The Creator +100 +105
Godzilla Minus One +100 +100
Napoleon +750 +800
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 +900 +1,000
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning +4,000 +5,000
  • Best Visual Effects Prediction: Godzilla Minus One should win this based solely on how much it accomplished on a much smaller budget than its Hollywood contemporaries. About the only thing agreed upon about The Creator was that it looked good, and with it trending in the opposite direction, grab Godzilla Minus One at plus money while you can.

Odds to win Best Original Score

Movie DraftKings bet365
Oppenheimer -2,000 -2,000
Killers of the Flower Moon +1,200 +1,000
Poor Things +1,200 +1,200
Indiana Jones & the Dial of Destiny +2,500 +2,500
American Fiction +2,500 +2,500
  • Best Original Score Prediction: Robbie Robertson should posthumously win for his haunting score for Killers of the Flower Moon. He won't. The score isn't the sonic powerhouse driving Oppenheimer, but it's still very good, and it is part of the technical-category sweep we expect for Nolan's film.

Odds to win Best Original Song

Song (Movie) DraftKings bet365
"What Was I Made For?" (Barbie) -700 -833
"I'm Just Ken" (Barbie) +400 +450
"Wahzhazhe" (Killers of the Flower Moon) +2,000 +2,500
"The Fire Inside (Flamin' Hot) +2,000 +2,500
"It Never Went Away" (American Symphony) +2,200 +2,500
  • Best Original Song Prediction: "I'm Just Ken" is the more fun song, but the odds have consistently favored "What Was I Made For?" and I'm not going to go against chalk on this one. 

Odds to win Best Sound

Movie DraftKings bet365
Oppenheimer -300 -250
The Zone of Interest +200 +175
Maestro +1,200 +1,600
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning +3,500 +3,300
The Creator +3,500 +3,300
  • Best Sound Prediction: I wish I grabbed a small piece of The Zone of Interest when it was at +750 to win Best Sound, but that's long gone. I still expect Oppenheimer to win — again, the atomic bomb test sequence — but the odds haven't lengthened enough for my liking and The Zone of Interest's momentum does inject it with some doubt. Overall, I'm staying away.

Odds to win Best Live-Action Short

Movie DraftKings bet365
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar -650 -625
Knight of Fortune +600 +500
The After +1,200 +1,200
Red White and Blue +1,400 +1,800
Invincible +1,800 +2,000
  • Best Live-Action Short Prediction: Wes Anderson has never won an Academy Award despite being nominated for Best Original Screenplay three times and Best Director once. The odds have tightened here a bit since the nominations were announced, but I'd be shocked if anything other than The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar won.

Odds to win Best Animated Short

Movie DraftKings bet365
Letter to a Pig -200 -200
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John Lennon +150 +175
Ninety-Five Senses +1,000 +900
Pachyderme +2,500 +2,000
Our Uniform +4,000 +2,500
  • Best Animated Short Prediction: I can't hazard a guess here. Chalk seems likely but my exposure to these shorts has been nonexistent. I'll use the betting odds to guide me in my home Oscars pool.

Odds to win Best Documentary Short

Movie DraftKings bet365
The ABCs of Book Banning -175 -152
The Last Repair Shop +200 +200
Nai Nai and Wai Po +400 +400
The Barber of Little Rock +2,200 +2,800
Island in Between +5,000 +2,500
  • Best Documentary Short Prediction: As with Best Animated Short, I simply don't know if there's value with going against chalk. These categories are always a mystery and your wagers are better spent elsewhere unless you can find an angle.

How to bet on the Academy Awards

Unlike sports betting, betting on the Oscars has far fewer statistics and numbers to keep in mind. But similar to wagering on sports, there are historical trends, news, and narratives to follow if you want to better handicap your Academy Awards bets.

Know the voting system

Understanding how Oscars voting works is key to understanding who will be nominated and who will win. The Academy has over 8,000 members spread out over 17 branches. Each branch nominates for its own category; actors nominate for Best Actor, directors for Best Director, etc. Every voter gets to nominate for the Best Picture Award, and they also vote on every award once the nominations are in. 

In almost every award, the voters just choose their No. 1 selection. Easy peasy, right? Well, that's not how the Best Picture is chosen. For Best Picture, each voter chooses their favorite film in order of preference. The No. 1 choices are counted first, and if one movie gets more than 50 percent of those votes, it's deemed the winner. But usually, the No. 2 and No. 3 choices need to be tallied as well.

What are the takeaways from this voting system? Since actors are the ones nominating their peers, not only does an actor need to do a great job to get a nomination, but he or she needs to be widely respected and probably well-liked. And because of the preferential voting for Best Picture, a movie that winds up at No. 2 or No. 3 on almost everyone's ballot can win the award if the No. 1 choice is split between several films.

It's better to have a movie that most will rank in their top three than a polarizing film that some voters have at No. 1 and others rank near the bottom of their list. 

Winners keep on winning

The Oscars are the biggest name in the film industry awards circuit, but they aren't the first ones to hand out their hardware every year. The Golden Globe Awards are given out just after the new year, followed by the Screen Actor Guild (SAG) Awards, and then the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs) in early February.

Movies and stars can often ride award-winning momentum into the Oscars. Films and actors that are successful at the earlier award shows tend to also perform well at the Oscars. In 2020, for example, Joaquin Phoenix and Renee Zellweger swept the Best Actor and Best Actress awards across every major awards show. After each subsequent win, their odds to claim the Academy Award got better, and the payout for bettors shrank. 

Follow the formula 

Some movie genres have historically done well with critics. That includes wartime dramas, movies that explore race relations, films about the film industry (nobody ever said that Hollywood isn't vain), movies based on true stories, and scripts based on award-winning novels. 

While many view Argo (2012) as one of the weakest winners of the Best Picture Award, it fit into two of these categories since it was based on a true story and was about the film industry.  

Fitting into these genres is certainly no guarantee for Academy Award success, but it is a good barometer for whether a film has the right stuff to make it into Oscar contention.

Bet on big stars 

Let's be honest, hype also plays a major role in whether certain movies get the deserved credit. Especially early in the Oscars process, sportsbooks will tend to give favorable lines toward movies with big-name directors and actors.

Just like annual sports betting favorites like the Yankees and Lakers, the biggest names in Hollywood tend to get the most handle and often do well during awards season. 

Cultural impact is key

Keep in mind the current cultural environment in which these movies are being watched. Themes that are more relevant to the public discourse tend to resonate more with audiences and critics. However, movies are also about escapism, and critics sometimes gravitate toward lighter fare during times of crisis.  

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