Saturday's seven-game NBA slate on Nov. 7 tips off with the Denver Nuggets taking on the Indiana Pacers in Mexico City at 5 p.m. ET and wraps up with the San Antonio Spurs visiting the Portland Trail Blazers at 10 p.m. ET.
Our NBA moneyline picks cover all seven matchups in tipoff order, with probabilities based on Polymarket market prices.
The Oklahoma City Thunder (78%) are the biggest favorites on the board, while the Phoenix Suns (32%) are the biggest underdogs we're backing on Saturday.
Find more analysis and predictions on our NBA picks page.
NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 7
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Nuggets Pacers |
70% |
 Nets Hawks |
32% |
 Wizards Thunder |
78% |
 Knicks Cavaliers |
40% |
 Magic Warriors |
68% |
 Rockets Suns |
32% |
 Spurs  Trail Blazers |
59% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 7
Nuggets vs Pacers: Nuggets
This matchup would look a lot different at Mexico City's altitude if Tyrese Haliburton were available to push the pace and T.J. McConnell could come off the bench to keep the Pacers playing at their preferred frantic tempo.
Instead, Haliburton is out, McConnell is questionable, and Indiana simply doesn't have the backcourt depth to sustain its preferred pace. Let's face it: the Denver Nuggets are also one team that won't be bothered by the altitude in Mexico City.
At 70%, give me the Nuggets to beat the Pacers.
Nets vs Hawks: Nets
The Hawks present a favorable matchup for Julius Randle to use his physicality inside and generate efficient offense for the Nets, with Moritz Wagner capable of providing more of the same when he checks in off the bench.
Meanwhile, Hawks center Onyeka Okongwu isn't necessarily equipped to disrupt Michael Porter Jr.'s perimeter shooting with effective closeouts.
Atlanta has plenty of perimeter defenders, but Brooklyn doesn't have a traditional perimeter threat for them to lock down.
Instead, the Nets can attack the Hawks' defensive weaknesses in the areas where Brooklyn generates most of its offense.
Wizards vs Thunder: Thunder
The Washington Wizards are playing the second half of a back-to-back, and Anthony Davis missed the front end with a sprained ankle.
The key to this trade is that even if Davis plays his usual minutes, I still see a slight edge on the Thunder at a 78% win probability.
There's a chance Davis sits again, which would significantly strengthen Oklahoma City's position. However, 78% is still a playable price even if Davis suits up for Washington.
Knicks vs Cavaliers: Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are my favorite trade on the board at 40%, as I price them closer to 46%.
There's a solid probability gap here that I'd typically be eager to exploit, but this pick comes with a word of caution.
Cleveland is playing the second night of a back-to-back, having faced the Philadelphia 76ers the night before.
I wouldn't expect the Cavaliers to load-manage in a home game against the New York Knicks, but any unexpected player absences in this scheduling spot could quickly erase our edge.
Magic vs Warriors: Warriors
The injury report hits the Orlando Magic particularly hard in this matchup because they're missing the ideal defender to chase Stephen Curry through screens, meet him at the point of attack, and contest his jump shots. Jalen Suggs would have been perfectly suited for that assignment.
It gets even worse for Orlando because the Warriors don't have to choose between deploying Draymond Green on Paolo Banchero or Franz Wagner. Green can focus his defensive attention on Wagner and make life difficult for one of the primary engines of the Magic offense.
At 68%, I think the edge clearly belongs to the Warriors in this matchup.
Rockets vs Suns: Suns
It's the Kevin Durant Bowl in the Valley, and with the Phoenix Suns trading as a 31% underdog, I'll gladly back them at that price. I have Phoenix closer to a 34% win probability against the Rockets.
Houston presents a difficult defense to break down, so the Suns will need significant contributions from their secondary scorers.
Luke Kennard and Collin Gillespie will be particularly important in providing the 3-point shooting and floor spacing Phoenix needs to generate efficient offense.
Spurs vs Trail Blazers: Spurs
The Portland Trail Blazers have the personnel to counter San Antonio's perimeter defense, with multiple guards capable of bringing the ball up, organizing the offense, and handling the Spurs' perimeter pressure.
The problem is that Portland won't have all its guards available, with Ja Morant sidelined by injury. His absence is particularly significant in this matchup and will affect the Trail Blazers' outlook.
I'd love to see these two teams square off at full strength in a playoff series, but given the personnel available for Saturday's matchup and the Spurs trading as just a 59% favorite, I'll back San Antonio at that price.
Today's NBA moneyline combo
Nuggets
Nets
Warriors
The Cavaliers offer the best edge on the board, but I'm leaving teams on the second night of a back-to-back out of the combo in case their injury reports bring any surprises.
Several teams play in the NBA Cup on Friday before turning around for another game Saturday. The Nuggets, Nets, and Warriors aren't among them, making those three safer options for the combo.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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