Get set for a Western Conference showdown between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Golden State Warriors with our free NBA player prop projections!
Our computer has crunched the numbers and delivers six NBA picks — three for each team — that offer the best betting value.
For more on this game, check out Tom Oldfield's Lakers vs. Warriors predictions for Saturday, February 28.
Lakers vs Warriors computer picks for February 28
 Lakers |
 Warriors |
|---|---|
| Smart o7.5 points -105 |
Moody u2.5 threes +135 |
| Ayton o0.5 assists +115 |
Green o7.5 points -130 |
| Reeves o3.5 assists +100 |
Santos u14.5 points -105 |
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Lakers computer picks
Marcus Smart Over 7.5 points (-105)
Projection: 9.0
This is a five-star play per our Covers prop projections, and Marcus Smart has hit this Over in seven of his last 10 overall.
"The matchup vs. the Golden State Warriors is a positive one for threes; opposing starting SFs have put up the highest three rate in the league this year (47.0%). Over the last 5 games, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 3.8 foul shots per game (8th-most in the NBA) against the Warriors, making it fairly effortless to get to the charity stripe."
Deandre Ayton Over 0.5 assists (+115)
Projection: 1.0
Deandre Ayton has 11 assists over his last 10 games, hitting this modest Over six times in that span.
The Warriors have surrendered the second-most assists per game to opposing centers.
Our computer pegs this prop as a +22.4% EV play.
Austin Reeves Over 3.5 assists (+100)
Projection: 4.5
With our computer calling for a full additional assist for Austin Reeves compared to his posted line, there's a +20.17% EV associated with this play.
Golden State is not a tough matchup for opposing shooting guards when it comes to assists, surrendering 5.17 per game to the position.
The even-money price just makes this bet all the more appealing.
Warriors computer picks
Moses Moody Under 2.5 threes (+135)
Projection: 2.5
Moses Moody is projected to be a victim of a potentially crawling pace in tonight's game.
"The 8th-least up-tempo pace home offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Golden State Warriors.. The Warriors are expected to suffer a drop-off in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 6th-most lethargic tempo visiting team in the NBA this year (the Los Angeles Lakers)."
Draymond Green Over 7.5 points (-130)
Projection: 9.6
This line is trending toward 8.5, but is still listed at 7.5 at bet365. Nevertheless, our computer is calling for a robust 9.6 points from Draymond Green.
"Offensive rebounds save possession and produce extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Warriors grade out 8th-best in in the league with 13.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games."
Green has hit this Over in five of his last eight overall.
Gui Santos Under 14.5 points (-105)
Projection: 12.7
Gui Santos' point prop keeps growing with increasing production, but our projections believe it's time to fade the young power forward.
"The matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers may be a tough one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a mere 2.2 free throws per game over the last 15 games (least in the NBA)."
This projection checks in over a full point lower than the posted line, good for a +14.08% EV.
How to watch Lakers vs Warriors tonight
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Saturday, February 28, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Not intended for use in MA.
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