Nate McMillian will make his head coaching debut for the Atlanta Hawks when they visit the Miami Heat tonight.
The Hawks fired Lloyd Pierce after a 14-20 start, which included a 4-11 record in the month of February. But it won’t be an easy start to McMillian’s tenure in Atlanta as the Heat are red-hot, winners of six in a row SU/ATS and are 3.5-point NBA betting favorites at home.
Find out how we see this matchup playing out with our free NBA picks and predictions for Hawks vs. Heat on Tuesday, March 2, with tipoff scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.
Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat betting preview
Injuries
Hawks: Kevin Huerter G (Questionable), Bogdan Bogdanovic G (Questionable), Cam Reddish F (Out), Kris Dunn G (Out), De'Andre Hunter F (Out).
Heat: Jimmy Butler F (Questionable), Avery Bradley G (Out), Meyers Leonard C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Heat.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonMiami hit the FanDuel odds board as 3.5-point chalk late Monday night, reached -4 a couple of times, then spent all afternoon today back at the opener. However, it's all Heat action as of 5 p.m. ET, with the home favorite taking 84 percent of bets and 85 percent of cash on the spread. The total is out to 222.5 from a 220.5 opener, with the Over attracting 59 percent of bets/63 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
The firing of Lloyd Pierce seemed like an odd move, considering the Hawks have dealt with countless impact injuries for a large portion of the season and, despite the February slide, had shown some tangible improvements.
And unfortunately, it doesn’t look like Nate McMillan will be getting reinforcements anytime soon. The Hawks will once again be without Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter, while Kevin Huerter and Bogdan Bogdanovic are both questionable.
Those injuries have really held the Hawks back, particularly on the defensive end of the floor. Since the start of February Atlanta ranks 28th in defensive rating and is giving up 116.9 points per game over that 15-game stretch, which includes a 109-99 loss as 2.5-point underdogs loss to the Heat last time out, who were without Jimmy Butler.
After a terribly slow start, the Heat have really recovered as this six-game winning streak has seen Miami climb to fifth in the East. During that stretch, the Heat rank seventh in offensive rating and sixth in defensive rating.
This line clearly is waiting on the status of Butler, who is questionable to play with a knee injury. With him, this line is a steal, but even without Butler, the Heat are just the better team. Lay the points.
PREDICTION: Heat -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Despite the last meeting falling below the number, the early money has come in on the Over. And there’s a good reason for that.
After being an early-season Under darling, the Hawks have gotten back to their Over ways, going 10-2 O/U over their last 12 games. That’s thanks to a defense that has become porous over the last month, but an offense that has still proven capable. Despite the February blues, the Hawks still rank 11th in offensive rating, scoring 112.9 points per game over their last 15 contests.
Meanwhile, the Heat are putting up 111.8 points per game during their six-game winning streak and get to go against a Hawks team that allowed opponents to shoot nearly 50 percent from the field in February. We’re backing the early money and jumping on the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 220.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Let’s stick to this month of February trend for the Hawks. Star guard Trae Young had a five-game run in the middle of the month where he averaged 33.4 points per game...but in those other nine games, Young topped 25 points just once, shooting just 37.8 percent from the field.
That includes going just 3-14 from the field for 15 points last time out against the Heat. Young just doesn’t match up well against Miami and we like him to go Under his point total again in this one.
PREDICTION: Trae Young Under 25.5 Points (-120)
Hawks vs Heat betting card
- Heat -3.5 (-110)
- Over 220.5 (-110)
- Trae Young Under 25.5 Points (-120)
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